Could the St. Louis Cardinals sign ace pitcher Justin Verlander?

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Every team could use a frontline starter, and there’s a unique one who may be coming on the market this offseason the St. Louis Cardinals should pursue.

On August 4, Justin Verlander pitching six shutout innings against the Cleveland Guardians. Given Verlander’s talent level and the Guardians’ middling offense, this wasn’t all that shocking. However, the details of that specific game weren’t the biggest takeaway that night.

Those six frames bumped Verlander to 130 on the season, triggering a player option to return to the Astros next season for a $25 million salary that matches what Verlander is making this year. Sounds great, right? Not bad money for most.

But this is Justin Verlander, one of the best pitchers on the planet over the last couple of decades, and he has options aside from that option. Instead of simply returning to Houston next year, he can market his services to all 30 teams.

Okay, not all 30 franchises are realistic destinations, but Verlander will play where he wants to next season, and quite possibly a few years beyond that.

Should the Cardinals make a run at Verlander this winter? Let’s examine the pros and cons.

HOUSTON, TEXAS – JULY 29: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros pitches in the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park on July 29, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

The case for signing Justin Verlander

Verlander truly is one of the greatest pitchers of his generation. From his Rookie of the Year-winning 2006 season through 2019, he captured an MVP trophy, two Cy Young Awards, was the runner-up for the latter three times and finished in the top five on three other occasions, and made eight All-Star teams.

In earning that hardware and those accolades, Verlander also won 225 games, struck out over 3,000 batters, and posted a 3.33 ERA that was 29% better than the average pitcher during that stretch of his career.

But then, after making the Astros’ Opening Day start in the delayed 2020 season, he missed the rest of the season due to what started as a forearm strain and ended up leading to Tommy John surgery.

Surely that was the death knell for a pitcher who was 37 years old, despite coming of a Cy Young Award in 2019, right? Wrong.

Verlander has bounced back with another tremendous season during this, his age-39 campaign. And he hasn’t simply maintained his usual dominance, he’s added to it. Traditionalists undoubtedly love his 15-3 record and 1.95 ERA, while sabermetricians are drooling over his 199 ERA+ and 0.88 WHIP.

In short, Verlander appears to be ageless, defying not only the calendar but also a serious injury, a pairing few can defeat. Yes, time comes for us all at some point, but that point appears to be in well into the future for Verlander.

Could the Cardinals use such a pitcher in the coming few seasons? Yes, absolutely yes. He’s the embodiment of an ace, and St. Louis is pretty much required to throw its hat into the ring if and when Verlander reaches free agency.

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JULY 19: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros smiles before the 92nd MLB All-Star Game presented by Mastercard at Dodger Stadium on July 19, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

The case against signing Justin Verlander

How many pitchers are successful at age 40? Sure, the Cardinals can look into their own dugout and see Adam Wainwright showing it can be done. But they also have seen the injuries that resulted in Wainwright being a Hall of Very Good pitcher instead of a potential Hall of Famer.

And prior injuries are the best indicator of future injuries. Wainwright underwent Tommy John surgery when he was 29, recuperating at a much younger age than Verlander was he went under the knife. How long can an older recipient of the same procedure hold up? Of course, it’s an unknown, but it’s undoubtedly a risk.

And then there’s the contract Verlander will demand. If he eschewed a $25M guarantee from Houston, there’s a clear reason. He’s going to want significantly more than that for a season of work, and he’s undoubtedly going to target a multi-year pact.

Verlander has been saying for years he wants to pitch until he’s 45. While that may be pushing even his limits, he likely is going to want the security of a long-term deal, one with a massive average annual value.

What would be a reasonable target? Well, first, “reasonable” is in the eye of the beholder. How about record-breaking? That probably has a certain appeal to Verlander.

Look at the three-year, $130M contract Max Scherzer signed with the Mets last offseason for his age-37 through age-39 campaigns, which works out to $43.33M per season. Verlander could shoot for something shorter but with a higher AAV, say two years and $87M, with that $43.5M average setting a new record. Would he get that? Almost certainly. And Verlander might even seek a three-year pact.

Would the Cardinals sign up for that kind of investment? It’s a risky commitment, but that’s the kind of obligation it will take to bring one of the best pitchers of his generation to the Gateway City.

Next. 5 St. Louis Cardinals players in line for contract extensions. dark

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Every team could use a frontline starter, and there’s a unique one who may be coming on the market this offseason the St. Louis Cardinals should pursue.

The case for signing Justin Verlander

The case against signing Justin Verlander

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