Is Jordan Walker the St. Louis Cardinals Next Leadoff Hitter?
Jordan Walker, the St. Louis Cardinals top prospect, is continuing to make a name for himself, and may be the St. Louis lead-off hitter before we know it.
This post was originally shared on August 24th, 2022 but was re-shared due to Jordan Walker batting lead-off for the Cardinals today
It is an exciting time to be a St. Louis Cardinals fan. The team is littered with future Hall of Famers, exciting young talent, and has struck a beautiful balance of being fun to watch and extremely competitive.
It wouldn’t be the Cardinals without hope for the future as well. This organization has become a legit pipeline for big league talent, having a healthy dose of star level talent and under-the-radar names who become impact players. The club is also maintaining one of the larger payrolls in baseball and has future financial flexibility, making them players both in free agency and trades for big name talent.
All of that being said, one of the most exciting stories coming out of the Cardinals organization can be found in Springfield, Missouri. Top 10 prospect in all of baseball, Jordan Walker, is consistently making a name for himself, looking like a superstar in the making. This is nothing new to Cardinals fans, who most have been excited about long before national media had a pulse on the phenom.
It is unlikely that Walker would be given the opportunity to make an impact for St. Louis before the 2023 season, but there is an interesting argument to be made that the 20-year old could be th solution to one of the biggest question marks on the Cardinals roster: the lead-off position.
For the majority of the 2022 season, Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson have been given the most consistent opportunities to hit at the top of the Cardinal lineup, but neither player has been able to seize the opportunity. Lars Nootbaar and Brendan Donovan have been given shots as well, but between the four of them, none of them appear to be the elite player that St. Louis would like to have in that spot.
Here is the case for why Walker may be not only the solution to the Cardinals biggest lineup issue, but could also be the catalyst for an elite offense taking shape.
Jordan Walker is producing like an elite lead-off hitter
Standing at 6’5 and known as a future middle of the order bat, the thought of Walker as a lead-off man may be confusing to Cardinals fans, but his current production lends itself to that role early on in his career.
Playing in AA this season, Walker is slashing .310/.393/.522 with 15 HRs and 53 RBI in just 94 games. That on base percentage really stands out when considering someone for the lead-off spot in a lineup, and pairing that with 45 extra base hits in 368 ABs makes Walker a force to be reckoned with. Walker’s really begun to find his power stroke lately as well, which is catching the eyes of talent evaluators around baseball.
An extremely underrated part of Walker’s game is his ability to steal bases. Albeit at the AA level, Walker has 17 SB on the season, and seems to have slowed down in the last 28 days with only 2 SB during that timeframe. It is likely that the organization is asking the future star to tone his base running down to protect himself from injury, but would be unleashed upon hitting the big leagues.
This style of game, big power with elite on base skills and great baserunning puts Walker in the mold of some of the other great lead-off hitters in the game today, such as Ronald Acuna Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., and Mookie Betts, among others. All of these players can anchor a lineup in the middle of the order, but have been utilized as lead-off hitters for various reasons. Allowing Walker to bat at the top of the lineup with his skill set would transform the St. Louis lineup.
Walker could profile as a 2-hole hitter or bat 5th in the lineup, but leading him off everyday means trouble for opposing pitchers. Having to face a threat like Walker to begin every game with guys like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado behind him would be a nightmare to pitch against.
Based on the way Walker looks and is producing at AA, there is reason to believe the learning curve for him at the major league level would not be too large, and the right handed hitter could see himself be a very good to elite lead-off man rather quickly.
How Jordan Walker compares to other lead-off options
While the lead-off spot has been a point of frustration for St. Louis, but a deeper look at the numbers suggests that the glaring weakness is more so against right-handed pitching. Here is how Walker’s splits against righties compares to the rest of the St. Louis lead-off options.
Jordan Walker: 288 AB, .313/.395/.531,13 HR, and 38 RBI
Dylan Carlson: 292 AB, .213/.291/.353, 5 HR, 26 RBI
Tommy Edman: 352 AB, .249/.319/.357, 6 HR, 29 RBI
Lars Nootbaar: 120 AB, .233/.347/.435, 4 HR, 17 RBI
Brendan Donovan, 306 AB, .286/.399/.377, 2 HR, 26 RBI
It is already clear Walker’s numbers, even in AA, are in a different class than the other lead-off options on this Cardinals roster. Donavan is the lone player with an OBP that is comparable to Walker, and all of the top of the lineup options lack any power vs. right-handed pitching.
Walker dominates left-handed pitching as well, making him the kind of player who could be penciled in batting first on an everyday basis, with Goldschmidt and Arenado batting 3rd and 4th and the rest of the lineup being constructed to matchup however needed.
Walker’s transition to the outfield now gives St. Louis a ton of flexibility for this lineup as well. Walker should be able to play third base, any of the outfield spots, DH, and potentially even see time at first base. This makes lineup construction for manager Oli Marmol even more interesting, as he can maneuver the lineup around while maintaining Walker in a spot like lead-off each day.
Whether St. Louis makes the bold step of promoting Walker for the stretch run, or more likely, the slugger makes the 2023 roster, he may be able to provide St. Louis was an elite lead off option while they still have such a deep and powerful lineup. If Walker continues his trajectory, the sky is the limit with Walker at the top of this St. Louis lineup.