4 things that St. Louis Cardinals fans don’t want to hear
The St. Louis Cardinals have been quite successful in the 2000s, with only one losing season this millennium. That’s very impressive, but there’s still some realities the franchise’s fans must face.
The Cardinals are batting the Milwaukee Brewers for the National League Central crown, as well as attempting to fend off the Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants, and other teams for the third and final Wild Card berth. A postseason spot isn’t assured, but it’s certainly promising.
The trade deadline could see St. Louis bring in some major reinforcements, with starting pitching, relief pitching, additional offensive thump, and defensive upgrades all possible paths to strengthen the roster. The team has the prospects to make multiple deals happen, as well as the financial support of a fervent and loyal fanbase.
The franchise’s twelfth World Series championship is a real possibility. Yes, the playoffs are somewhat a crapshoot, with – for the first time ever – 12 teams battling throughout October to claim the ultimate hardware. Surviving every round of the postseason and winning the title is the dream of (nearly) every team at the start of spring training.
St. Louis is in the running every season for an opportunity to win it all, bringing to battle competitive payrolls and an excellent drafting and development machine that churns out above-average players like clockwork and provides prospects that can be transformed into star regulars such as Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.
Still, there are limitations to what the team is willing to do. Those payrolls won’t approach the Competitive Balance Tax threshold, and a team full of mostly above-average players will tend to be an above-average team, one that wins around 90 games per year but rarely is one of the 2-3 absolute best squads in Major League Baseball.
Given that, there are realities Cardinals fans must face. Here are four of them for Redbird rooters to consider.
No major SP additions are coming
With Jack Flaherty hurt again, Dakota Hudson joining him on the Injured List recently, and Steven Matz back on the IL follow a one-game return Saturday, the Cardinals are aching for starting pitching help. Despite a large number of options available and an enviable bounty of prospects at their disposal, it’s unlikely St. Louis will put together a package acceptable to the Cincinnati Reds for Luis Castillo, especially considering the intra-division aspect of such a move.
With the Oakland A’s Frankie Montas and Reds’ Tyler Mahle needing to prove their shoulders are healthy, every team will be watching their last starts before the August 2 trade deadline with great interest. The player haul required to acquire either of them would be less than it would be for Castillo, but with the stiff competition expected for each hurler, it’s debatable whether the Cardinals will pony up the return needed to bring one of them aboard.
Are there other big-name moundsmen available? Yes, the Florida Marlins’ Pablo Lopez has been mentioned as a possible trade candidate. He’s having another strong season, and the injury bug that has plagued him in past seasons hasn’t bitten him this campaign. With the Fish well stocked with starting pitching options at the major league and minor league levels, they’re willing to toss Lopez out as bait to see if they can reel in a hitter, particularly a center fielder.
Perhaps Harrison Bader and a bopper – maybe Juan Yepez or Alec Burleson – who could be a solid long-term first base solution, along with a low-minors pitcher to dream on would have been enough to entire the Marlins to make a move. However, Bader is injured and may not return this season, so that greatly reduces the likelihood of something getting done between the two teams before August 2.
Looking back at last year’s acquisitions of J.A. Happ and Jon Lester, it seems the Cardinals aren’t willing to go big in their pursuit of pitching help. Given the current state of the rotation, the need appears to be even greater than in 2021. Will St. Louis pull the trigger on a big-time move? Cardinals fans will be waiting and watching with great anticipation. But don’t be surprised if Jose Quintana is the big addition before the trade deadline
Cardinals looking for catching help
Yadier Molina reportedly is starting a rehab assignment Thursday. That’s the good news. The bad news is, he and his fellow backstops have been pretty dreadful this season. There’s at least one potential improvement available, though an acquisition of Willson Contreras from their forever rivals the Chicago Cubs, seems unlikely. The idea of vengeance for the Lou Brock–Ernie Broglio trade would be the one positive behind such a move from the North Siders’ perspective.
Oakland’s Sean Murphy reportedly is another option, though it’s unclear if the A’s really will part with him given his long-term control, though the 2025 season. Sure, they have two strong catching prospects in the minors – Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom – but as the Toronto Blue Jays have shown, it may not be possible to have too much catching depth, and the designated hitter makes it possible to fit three on a roster.
The remainder of the catching trade market offers little optimism for improvement, so the most likely path for the Cardinals is to bring Molina back after his weekend in Memphis, let Andrew Knizner back him up, and keep Austin Romine and Ivan Hererra in the minors as depth options in case of another injury.
A catching crew that’s batting around .200 with little power or patience is far from ideal, and Molina’s stellar glovework of old is on decline as his age increases, but the likeliest path for St. Louis is to roll with what they have, pushing for the playoffs while giving Yadi his well-deserved sendoff at the same time.
The outfield is A-OK
Tyler O’Neill has scuffled and dealt with injury following his breakout 2021 campaign. Harrison Bader very well may be shut down from baseball activities for the next few weeks. Among last year’s starting outfielders, only Dylan Carlson has been healthy and productive the bulk of this season, holding his own in both right and center fields and maintaining his above-average, if unsexy, numbers at the plate.
In a perfect world, last year’s breakout from this trio would have continued this season. And in that world, the Cardinals almost certainly would be in first place with the extra wins that continuation would have provided. In the real world, St. Louis has had to give opportunities on the grass to several even less experienced players, and they’ve held their own overall.
Lars Nootbaar made his MLB debut last season and was a fine fourth outfielder. His bat hasn’t been as strong this year, but he’s chipped in the occasional helpful hit. Juan Yepez, a born first baseman/designate hitter who currently is on the 10-day IL, is unlikely ever to be a strong defensive outfielder, but he’s given it a try, and his powerful bat has made him a solid contributor overall.
Brendan Donovan has been a revelation as a rookie. He’s made at least seven defensive appearances everywhere except center field and catcher, allowing the Cardinals to cover for injuries, provide rest days, and rotate players through the DH spot. Donovan is another player going against the long-standing St. Louis tradition of strong defensive play. But a player who gets on base a ton and is willing to wear whatever glove you give him is a big benefit to any team.
With those six young options, along with several more percolating up through the minor league system, the Cardinals have a glut of outfielders and only three spots to play them – plus DH, of course. Could this mean a Juan Soto trade gets completed by Tuesday afternoon? That certainly would be one way to thin the herd and consolidate resources and talent.
It also would significantly increase the payroll and take a big bite out of the farm system. And it’s not President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak’s style based on his history of in-season moves. Maybe this winter would be a better time to consider such a blockbuster – if Soto isn’t dealt to another team before then.
Regardless, the Cardinals have plenty of solid outfield options. Fans certainly have been disappointed by O’Neill and Bader falling back to earth compared to last season, and patience already is wearing thin for Carlson among some supporters. But the green grass of Busch Stadium III looks to be home to a productive crop of outfielders one way or another for a long time to come, even if none of them are transcendent superstars like Soto.
The kids are alright – sometimes
The Cardinals have a number of highly ranked prospects and young players who recently have gotten a taste of the major leagues. On the pitching side, there are Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, Andre Pallante, and Packy Naughton who have appeared in the big leagues, and Gordon Graceffo, Tink Hence, Michael McGreevy, and others are bubbling up through the minor league ranks behind them.
Then there’s the real excitement on the hitting side of the ball. Nolan Gorman, Juan Yepez, Brendan Donovan, and Ivan Herrera have reached the big leagues. The next wave is led by top-ten prospect Jordan Walker, and he is joined by Masyn Winn and Alec Burleson, with Moises Gomez, Won-Bin Cho, and others providing additional depth.
Here’s the catch with all of these prospects: They don’t, and won’t, all pan out. One of them just might become a star, one or two are likely to become solid regulars, and a couple could be bench players or middle-innings bullpen pitchers. The odds of all of them reaching the majors are incredibly slim. That’s simply the nature of development, with stiffer competition and injuries waylaying countless prospects on their path to the big leagues.
The greatest difficulty this presents to a front office is what to do with these prospects. Should a team horde as many as possible, letting the odds work in their favor that the more players vying for a big-league role, the greater the chances a few of them hit and become established regulars? Or is a better path to deal them while the excitement and expectations are at their highest, netting established major league performers (such as Juan Soto and Frankie Montas mentioned earlier)?
John Mozeliak and the rest of the front office are tasked with making these decisions, and Cardinals fans have to hope they make the right call the majority of the time.