Cardinals Playoff Odds: Where is St. Louis in the NL postseason picture?

Where are the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League postseason picture? They may not be as highly related as one would expect.

Entering Sunday, the St. Louis Cardinals are 44-36 and only one game back in the National League Central. So where do they stack up in the postseason picture?

As of July 3, the Cardinals have the sixth best odds to make the postseason in the NL. According to FanGraphs, the Los Angeles Dodgers (98.6 percent), New York Mets (96.4 percent), Atlanta Braves (94.2 percent), San Diego Padres (84.9 percent) and Milwaukee Brewers (82.4 percent) all have a better chance of advancing to the playoffs than the Cardinals (55.9 percent).

It’s a surprise that the Cardinals and Brewers are separated by 26.5 percent given that 1) they are only separated by one game and 2) the Brewers are dealing with a plethora of injuries to the rotation, with Freddy Peralta out most of the regular season and Adrian Houser now on the Injured List with an elbow issue.

That’s not to mention that the Cardinals figure to only get better from where they’re at now. Nolan Arenado is quickly regaining his MVP form after hitting for the cycle. Steven Matz is getting closer to returning, Tyler O’Neill was showing major signs of progress before going on the IL again and Jack Flaherty should return at some point later in the season. And the Cardinals are expected to be active at the trade deadline in pursuing starting pitching and bullpen upgrades.

So yes, while the Cardinals’ odds are still strongly in favor of them making the postseason, I fully expect them to climb in the coming days and weeks. Considering the talent on the roster, the talent that is set to come off the IL at various points of the regular season and the talent that will be acquired at the deadline, they are a sneaky pick to be a surprise team in the postseason.

Will it be enough to dethrone the Dodgers, Mets and Braves? That remains to be seen. But they should, barring a complete downfall, get to the postseason – and as we all know, anything can happen in a best of 5 or 7 series.