Evaluating St. Louis Cardinals MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year cases

Paul Goldschmidt (46) celebrates with third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) after the Cardinals defeated the San Francisco Giants at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Paul Goldschmidt (46) celebrates with third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) after the Cardinals defeated the San Francisco Giants at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
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The St. Louis Cardinals are off to a strong start as a team. But do any Cardinals have a shot at the end-of-season individual awards?

The St. Louis Cardinals are in first place in the NL Central. They’re grinding out tough wins. They’re getting healthy. And they’re showing signs they might be a real contender. As a team, a whole lot is going right.

But how do the Cardinals stack up on an individual level? As it gets closer, we’ll take a look at the all-star positional races (personally, I think Arenado, Goldschmidt, Edman and Helsley are locks, with cases to be made for Waino, Yadi, Albert, and Mikolas). But do any of the St. Louis Cardinals have a chance at the coveted year-end awards?

The only current Cardinals to win an MVP, Cy Young or Rookie of the Year is Albert Pujols. In fact, Albert is the last Cardinal to win Rookie of the Year (2001) or MVP (2009), while the last Cardinal to win the Cy Young was Chris Carpenter in 2005.

The current MVP drought of 12 seasons is the longest in franchise history since the 20 year gap between Willie McGee (1985) and Pujols. In fact, the 2010s were only the third decade since 1920 where a St. Louis Cardinal did not win an MVP award (1950s and 1990s).

It’s shocking to me, but Chris Carpenter and Bob Gibson are the only Cardinals to win a Cy Young. Wainwright had his stolen by Tim Lincecum in 2009, but surely a team that values pitching as much as the Cardinals should have the best starter on their roster, right?

And while Pujols is one, can you name the other five Cardinals to win rookie of the year? (answer revealed at the end!) The MVP drought might be long, but since the rookie of the year award was introduced in 1947, the Cardinals have never gone this long (20 seasons) without a winner.

So while we (rightfully) focus on if the Cardinals have what it takes to make a deep postseason run, let’s take a moment to examine the award races. We’ll start with MVP, move to Cy Young, and finish with ROY. Do any Cardinals have a shot?

Paul Goldschmidt (46) celebrates with third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) after the Cardinals defeated the San Francisco Giants at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Paul Goldschmidt (46) celebrates with third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) after the Cardinals defeated the San Francisco Giants at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports /

Most Valuable Player

For the first time in a while, the Cardinals have more than one legitimate candidate for MVP. Maybe it’s the Albert Pujols effect. Whatever the reason, let’s jump right in.

Nolan Arenado

We’ll start the conversation with the preseason front-runner. No one is surprised that Nolan Arenado finds himself in the MVP discussion. He has finished top-10 in MVP voting five times in his career. One of the best all-around players of the last decade, the Cardinals would not be in first place without Arenado’s production.

At this point in mid-June, however, Nolan’s MVP candidacy has taken a bit of a hit. The NL player of the month in April, Arenado has fallen back to the rest of the pack. He’s slashing .271/.341/.480 on the year with an OPS+ of 136. As impressive as those numbers are, none are top ten in the National League.

Arenado’s MVP case becomes stronger after factoring in his excellent defensive numbers at third base. Nolan is fifth in the NL in defensive war and once again in contention for a gold glove. Defense can be really hard to value, but it seems Arenado’s overall WAR is given the right bump. He’s sixth in the NL, and one of only two players to be top ten both in defensive and overall WAR.

There is no doubt that Arenado is one of the best baseball players alive. If he is to win his first MVP, however, Arenado will have to have more months like he did in April than in May. I wouldn’t count him out of the race just yet.

Paul Goldschmidt

The biggest knock against Nolan Arenado’s MVP candidacy is that he might not be the best hitter on his team. Right now, that honor belongs to Paul Goldschmidt. Player of the Month in May and only getting better in June, Goldy might be the best hitter on the planet.

Goldschmidt leads the NL in each of the following categories: hits (81), batting average (.349), on-base (.431), slugging percentage (.642), and total bases (149). He leads all of Major League Baseball in OPS (1.073) and OPS+ (207). He’s second in the NL in home-runs (16) and leads the NL in offensive WAR (3.8) by almost a full win (second place is 3.1).

Exploring Statcast reveals other impressive numbers, too. Goldschmidt leads all of baseball in reaching base with two-strikes, he’s sixth in hits when the tying or go-ahead run is on-base, and he’s one of two players in baseball to be top five in hits against both fastballs and non-fastballs (the other is Rafael Devers). In other words, there’s no scenario where anyone wants to face him at the plate.

Notoriously a slow starter, fans have often wondered what would happen if Paul Goldschmidt was at his best for an entire season, and not just the second-half. Goldy has finished second in MVP voting twice in his career. If Vegas knows anything, 2022 is the year where Paul Goldschmidt finishes number one.

Tommy Edman

Without looking it up, who currently leads the Cardinals in WAR? On a team with Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, the answer seems obvious. Well, with his defensive versatility, offensive consistency, and stellar base-running, the surprising leader is Tommy Edman.

I’ll let MLB Network analyst and one-time Cardinals utility man Mark DeRosa explain the magic of Tommy Edman:

Not to mention that Edman leads the NL in stolen bases. I wrote earlier that Nolan Arenado was one of two players to rank in the top ten in both defensive and overall WAR in the NL. Well, the other is Tommy Edman. Edman has found a way to positively impact every aspect of a baseball game. He’s been truly special this season, and that deserves to be recognized.

The last time the Cardinals had three players finish top 10 in MVP voting was 2004, when Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, and Jim Edmonds finished 3rd, 4th, and 5th, respectively. At the beginning of the season, we predicted it would once again be an outfielder to join the corner infielders in leading the Cardinals. A quarter of the way through 2022, however, it’s Tommy Edman making a legitimate case to be a member of a new Cardinals MV3.

Can Tommy Edman really win NL MVP? I’m not sure the answer matters. More importantly, we should be celebrating the breakout season of this former sixth-round pick.

Miles Mikolas #39 of the St. Louis Cardinals pitches against the New York Mets at Busch Stadium on April 25, 2022 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Joe Puetz/Getty Images)
Miles Mikolas #39 of the St. Louis Cardinals pitches against the New York Mets at Busch Stadium on April 25, 2022 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Joe Puetz/Getty Images) /

Cy Young

There might not be tougher competition for any award in baseball than NL Cy Young. Even without Jacob DeGrom and Max Scherzer at full-strength, the list of competitors is incredible.

Last-year’s winner Corbin Burnes and runner-up Zack Wheeler are dominating once again. Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez have been almost unhittable for the Marlins. Joe Musgrove is leading the Padres pitching staff. Max Fried has continued to develop as an ace for the Atlanta Braves. And I haven’t even mentioned any of the Dodgers superstars. The Cy Young shortlist is a tough one to crack.

All that being said, the Cardinals boast two legitimate dark-horse candidates. Once again, Adam Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’s top ten in ERA, innings pitched, and home runs per nine innings. And Waino is just outside the top ten in WAR, hits per nine, and WHIP.

It’s a long season, and part of what wins a Cy Young is being dominant throughout the entire 162 games. If the season ended today, Wainwright would not be in the discussion for the top pitcher in the league. If he continues to be consistent, however, and mixes in a few dominating outings, he will only rise up the leaderboard.

The surprising feature to this section is Wainwright ranks second in most pitching categories among Cardinals starters. The leader is none other than Miles Mikolas. Mikolas is also top ten in the NL in ERA and innings pitched. In addition, Mikolas is top ten in WHIP, adjusted ERA+, and 11th in WAR. Not to mention that he’s one of only five NL starters with a complete game– and that doesn’t include the almost no-hitter from Tuesday night.

Like Wainwright, Mikolas has a long road ahead to be included in the Cy Young conversation. The voters and the metrics both favor high strikeout guys, which disadvantages the Cardinals pitch-to-contact method. However, it’s fun to track how these two aces stack up against the rest of the league. And who knows? A few more months of domination, and both Wainwright and Mikolas could see their names on a piece of hardware.

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – JUNE 04: Brendan Donovan #33 of the St. Louis Cardinals hits a two RBI double during the tenth inning of Game Two of a doubleheader against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on June 04, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. The Cardinals defeated the Cubs 7-4. (Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – JUNE 04: Brendan Donovan #33 of the St. Louis Cardinals hits a two RBI double during the tenth inning of Game Two of a doubleheader against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on June 04, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. The Cardinals defeated the Cubs 7-4. (Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images) /

Rookie of the Year

By this point, I think everyone in baseball has heard of Cardinals Devil Magic. A relatively unknown rookie shows up midseason in St. Louis and becomes a household name. To the chagrin of the rest of the league, it feels like this phenomenon happens every year.

What people might not know is that excluding the shortened 2020 season, at least one Cardinals player has received rookie of the year votes every season since Matt Carpenter in 2012.  Unsurprisingly, they are the only team in baseball with this streak.

2021- Dylan Carlson (3rd)

2020- no one (60-game season)

2019- Dakota Hudson (5th)

2018- Jack Flaherty (5th), Harrison Bader (6th)

2017- Paul DeJong (2nd)

2016- Aledmys Diaz (5th), Seung-Hwan Oh (6th)

2015- Stephen Piscotty (6th)

2014- Kolten Wong (3rd)

2013- Shelby Miller (3rd)

2012- Matt Carpenter (6th)

This season, there are three candidates to continue the trend, and potentially break through to finish first. Let’s look at each one, before evaluating their competition from around the league. A quick shoutout to Andre Pallante and Matthew Liberatore, who have been solid on the mound but probably won’t get enough innings to compete for the award.

Juan Yepez

Yepez has slowed down a bit since his torrid start, but he’s still slashing .272/.332/.440 with five home runs. Simply put, Juan Yepez knows how to hit. If Yepez can continue to get at-bats, there is no doubt that he can build a strong rookie of the year case.

Nolan Gorman

Now that the top prospect has shown he can field his position at second, there’s no reason to send Nolan Gorman down to the minors. Not to mention the heads-up baserunning. I wouldn’t be shocked if Gorman went on a tear sometime over the next month, vaulting up the rookie rankings and establishing himself as a core part of the St. Louis Cardinals future.

Brendan Donovan

Is there anything this guy can’t do? Brendan Donovan has batted in each spot in the lineup and played six different positions in the field this season. More importantly, Donovan walked more than he’s struck out, leads qualified NL rookies in OPS, and leads all NL rookie hitters in WAR. It’s not only that Donnie can do everything– it’s that he can do everything really, really well.

So Yepez has an outside shot, Gorman has the prospect recognition, and Donovan is the surprising early leader. Despite their strong start, however, the young Cardinals trio has staunch competition from around the league.

Two Cubs outfielders, Christopher Morel and Seiya Suzuki, are right on Donovan’s tail on the OPS leaderboard. Hunter Greene in Cincinnati and Mackenzie Gore in San Diego are both top draft picks pitching like aces of the future. Spencer Strider and Michael Harris are each performing well for the Atlanta Braves. And we haven’t yet seen the debut of Pirates prospect O’Neil Cruz.

Young players can be wildly inconsistent, and a lot can change in the rookie of the year race. But I’d put my money on Gorman and Donovan keeping pace with the rest of the league for the whole season. It’s due time for the St. Louis Cardinals to have another Rookie of the Year.

Albert Pujols (5) celebrates with manager Oliver Marmol (37) after the Cardinals defeated the San Francisco Giants at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Albert Pujols (5) celebrates with manager Oliver Marmol (37) after the Cardinals defeated the San Francisco Giants at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports /

Conclusion

So, can the Cardinals win a major award this season? Goldschmidt is the front-runner for MVP, but he has to hold off Manny Machado, Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, and two of his teammates. Cy Young looks like it might be out of reach, but there are three young Cardinals building strong rookie of the year resumes.

There are other spaces for recognition, as well. Maybe Ryan Helsley gets more save opportunities and wins reliever of the year? Oli Marmol has done a commendable job managing a roster full of moving pieces. Is he worthy of manager of the year recognition?

Of course, the Cardinals have brought back most of the Gold Glove roster from last season, too. It wouldn’t be shocking for the Cardinals to defend their title as the best defense in baseball in 2022, as well.

Ultimately, there’s a reason these awards aren’t given out in June. Less than half the season has been played, and no one knows what the rest of the summer might bring. The good news is the St. Louis Cardinals boast worthy candidates for each spot. And in a quest for a deep playoff run, you need to have superstars to rely on.

The Cardinals have a long history of individual and team accomplishments. We’ll keep tracking these players as they work to add to both tallys. In the meantime, we can celebrate their individual success as the team steadily wins ballgames and builds towards the postseason.

Trivia question– The six St. Louis Cardinal Rookie of the Year winners are:

Wally Moon (1954)

Bill Virdon (1955)

Bake McBride (1974)

Vince Coleman (1985)

Todd Worrell (1986)

Albert Pujols (2001)

dark. Next. 7 standouts in Cardinals series win over Pirates

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