Evaluating two Reds players as St. Louis Cardinals trade targets

Evaluating Cincinnati Reds right-handed pitchers Tyler Mahle and Luis Castillo as St. Louis Cardinals trade targets

At this point, it’s no secret that the St. Louis Cardinals could use rotation upgrades despite Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz getting close to returning off the Injured List.

We have evaluated Pittsburgh Pirates left-hander Jose Quintana as a possible Cardinals trade target. But he won’t be the only National League Central pitcher worth taking a look at, as the Cincinnati Reds have two of the most coveted starters on the market in Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle.

For the Cardinals, Mahle would seem to be the preferred option. Mahle, 27, is signed through 2024 and is signed cheap (making only $5.2 million in 2022) and should come at a somewhat discounted price considering that he has struggled this season, posting a 5.53 ERA and 58/26 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 53.2 innings.

But Mahle offers something that the Cardinals need: the ability to eat significant innings. Last season, he pitched 180 innings and posted a 3.75 ERA in 33 starts while striking out 210 batters. The Cardinals, or any other acquiring team, would be betting on Mahle pitching like that or like he did in a COVID-shortened 2020 season (3.59 ERA in nine starts). Of course, that could bring the bidding to a level that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is not comfortable with.

If that’s indeed the case, I don’t expect the Cardinals to turn their attention toward Castillo. The Cardinals are familiar with the right-hander, of course, and he comes with a very strong track record. But he has dealt with a plethora of injuries, most recently soreness in his throwing shoulder during spring training. While he has returned, posting a 3.38 ERA in five starts, it’s hard to see Mozeliak wanting to add another pitcher with injury problems when injuries have ravished the rotation for two consecutive seasons.

Of all the Cardinals’ options, Mahle and Castillo would appear to be unlikely targets. They both would be upgrades and come with upside, but Mahle (trade cost) and Castillo (injury history) is likely enough to keep them from being realistic targets for St. Louis.