Surprises and Disappointments for the St. Louis Cardinals in April and May
The St. Louis Cardinals finish April and May with a 28 – 21 record. Here are some of the surprises and disappointments so far this season.
The Cardinals right now sit three games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for tops in the NL Central. So far, the season has been good, but not great. At times, this team has treaded water as pitching injuries have taken a toll on the rotation. The offense, once again, is hit-or-miss. One night, they will plate double-digit run totals (with position players pitching), and the very next night, the Cardinals barely get any base runners, let alone runs. As with all major league teams, there are surprises and disappointments.
To me, the biggest surprise so far is a tie between Paul Goldschmidt‘s May and the overall contribution from Cardinal rookies. It’s common for Goldschmidt to get hot during a season and go on a tear, but Goldy is on a career-high on-base streak and just broke the Cardinals’ record for most XBH in a month.
It’s also been a treat to watch “the kids” play: Brendan Donovan, Juan Yepez, Matthew Liberatore, and Nolan Gorman.
Donovan was already a favorite of Oliver Marmol in Spring Training, and that has continued this season. He has the highest OPS and OBP of any rookie in MLB with a minimum of 20 games played. All Juan Yepez since he’s come to St. Louis was hit, hit, and hit. Yepez enters June with a slash line of .278/.340/.796 and a wRC+ of 129.
Then there are the best friends from Sandra Day O’Connor High school in Phoenix. Matthew Liberatore has been able to hold his own in his two starts again divisional foes Pittsburgh and Milwaukee, often showcasing his impressive curveball. Gorman has been blistering the ball with two long home runs over the right field bullpen. His OPS+ since he’s started? 232.
The biggest disappointment this season has been Paul DeJong, and that itself is putting it mildly. It’s been a steep decline for Paul DeJong, who put up 3.7 fWAR and 101 wRC+ in his All-Star season in 2019. Since then, his wRC+ has decreased each year, and he now sits at an abysmal 27 wRC+.
The Cardinals hoped DeJong would be able to turn things around this year. Instead, he is now in Memphis as Tommy Edman and Nolan Gorman take over at shortstop and second base.
Here are other surprises and disappointments.
Miles Mikolas
Miles Mikolas came into this season as a question mark in the Cardinals’ starting rotation. Since his All-Star season in 2018, it has gone downhill with ERA’s over 4 in 2019 and 2021, along with frequent trips to the injured list.
2022 has been nothing short of a revelation for Mikolas, as he currently owns one of the best ERAs in the Majors at 2.67. One of the keys to his success has been getting batters to chase the slider low and away, just like in 2018. Batters are currently hitting .203 off his slider, and when you combine that with increased usage of a sinking fastball, it makes Mikolas a tough pitcher to face.
Tommy Edman
Currently sitting tied for second in all of baseball with 3.0 WAR is Tommy Edman. Last season, Edman’s OBP was a mere .308, which is way too low for a leadoff man. Through two months, Edman owns an OBP is .360. The biggest improvement Edman has made is drawing walks. With nineteen walks already, Edman is set to blow past his season average of 22 base-on balls.
Edman’s biggest asset to the Cardinals is his versatility. Not only is Edman taking productive at-bats, his defense remains Gold-Glove caliber at second base and shortstop. Right now, Edman is tied with Andrew Velazquez for second in MLB Defensive WAR and sits in the 89th percentile of Outs Above Average according to Statcast.
Ryan Helsley
With perhaps the most dominating fastball this season in MLB, Ryan Helsley has emerged as the best relief pitcher for the Cardinals. Through 18.2 innings, Helsley has generated 28 strikeouts and a WHIP of 0.48. Helsley enters June with a 0.48 ERA, having surrendered his only earned run of the season last Monday.
Tyler O’Neill
If you go back to our beginning predictions for the 2022 season, Tyler O’Neill was considered to be the MVP of the Cardinals. After all, O’Neill came off of a 2021 season where he hit 34 homers and accumulated a WAR of 6.3. Things appeared prime to be one of the stars in the National League, especially after a splendid Opening Day performance.
Since then, O’Neill has been lost at the plate. One of his biggest weaknesses is chasing the pitches low and away, and now pitchers are getting him to bite on the slider. With O’Neill now on the injured list, one might wonder if his right shoulder impingement injury was causing the problem.
Jordan Hicks
Jordan Hicks was a surprise choice to be the #5 starter when Jack Flaherty went to the Injured List to start the year. Hicks started some games in the minor leagues, but he’s never started in St. Louis. Unfortunately, the experiment has backfired on Oliver Marmol and the Cardinals. As we head into June, Hicks currently has -0.1 WAR.
Corey Dickerson
Dickerson came to St. Louis with the reputation of producing with the bat. He’s had successful stints with teams such as Colorado, Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh, so having him as a bench bat sounded great for the Cardinals.
The results so far have been disappointing. Dickerson’s biggest problem is the ability to make solid contact, especially on the fastball. He’s batting .103 against four-seam fastballs and has a run value of -5 against said fastballs. Given his paltry numbers, it’s not a surprise he’s ranked in the 30th percentile of max exit velocity.
If this continues, the front office might be tempted to designate him for assignment and give Lars Nootbaar more playing time.