Ranking the 10 worst contracts in the National League Central

What are the 10 worst contracts not just for the Cardinals, but in the NL Central, focusing on the future and not so much on past performances?

With four of the five teams in the division in small- or medium-sized markets, most of the NL Central squads can’t afford to make bad decisions on big-ticket players and hope to remain competitive.  The good thing is, for the most part they haven’t made these mistakes.  For the most part.  There still are some contracts that are hurting teams now and/or have the risk of hurting them in the long term.

This analysis of the ten worst pacts in the division won’t consider the past.  What we’re looking at here is the worst contracts based on the remaining money on the deal.  Buy-outs are factored in, but deferrals are not.  Let’s get to it.

No. 10 (tie): Paul DeJong, $17M remaining; Lorenzo Cain, $13.5M remaining

What team couldn’t use a slick-fielding shortstop or a rangy center fielder?  Every franchise would love to have at least one of each, right?

Fair enough, but what if neither one of them could hit?  That quickly becomes a problem when you have a hole in your lineup, because in today’s game, every position player is expected to be able to contribute on both sides of the ball, especially on playoff contenders.

DeJong’s hitting has been trending downward since his debut season with the Cardinals in 2017 when he finished second in Rookie of the Year voting after hitting .285/.325/.532, which was a 121 OPS+, with 25 home runs.  Before being sent down to Triple-A recently, he had compiled a ghastly .130/.209/.208 line with a single homer and three doubles.

The remaining money isn’t big, which is why he’s at the bottom of the list, but there’s enough debate about whether DeJong will get back to being a major league-caliber hitter that his contract can be viewed as a potential waste of money.

Cain’s hitting peaked in his late 20s, which is pretty common.  However, he’s now 36 and hasn’t had an above-average bat in a full season since 2018, when he posted a .308/.395/.417 line for a 119 OPS+ and finished seventh in MVP voting in his first season with the Brewers.  Much has changed in four years, as Cain has started out this year batting .182/.247/.216 in his first 97 plate appearances.

Milwaukee can either ride out the final year of his contract and employ Cain as a platoon player and defensive replacement or cut its losses and eats the remainder of his contract.  Either way, the rest of the money is pretty much a sunk cost with little upside.

No. 8: Seiya Suzuki, $83M remaining

The Cubs looked likely to once again spend little during this offseason.  After being competitive for several seasons, including capturing the World Series title in 2016, Chicago sold off most of its good, expensive players at last year’s trade deadline.  It looked like a rebuild/reload/retool had begun.

But then the North Siders pivoted.  In addition to some other significant expenditures (including another one on this list), they paid nearly $100M for Seiya Suzuki to join them from Nippon Professional Baseball, including nearly $15M for his posting fee.

Suzuki may be a major league rookie, but he was a well-established talent in Japan.  Over 3500+ plate appearances with the Hiroshima Carp, he hit .315/.414/.570 with 182 homers during his nine seasons with the team.  Starting his career at age 18, Suzuki’s power really developed the last few years, as he hit 25+ long balls every season from 2016 on.

As a five-time NPB All-Star and Golden Glove Award winner, Suzuki brought serious credentials stateside.  He started his major league career on fire, including four homers during a nine-game hitting streak that set a new Cubs record.  While he has dropped off lately, his overall line still is strong.

So, what’s the risk?  Well, he has cooled off after that hot start, and pitchers will get the book on Suzuki before long.  How he counters their adjustments will begin to reveal whether he will have a memorable or forgettable MLB career.

Suzuki’s pedigree in Japan looks to have set him up well for success in the United States, and the Cubs were willing to bet nearly nine figures on him becoming a star.  So far, things are working out, but there’s a long time for Suzuki to validate Chicago’s investment.

No. 7: Marcus Stroman, $65M remaining

Joining Suzuki in the Windy City was Stroman, a pitcher who succeeds more on control than velocity, an unusual concept in today’s power-hungry game.  It’s worked for him, however, as his career ERA of 3.67 is 15% better than an average pitcher over that span.  Consider Stroman spent much of that time in the American League East facing the behemoths of the Bronx and Boston, and his results look even better.

So what is the risk profile for Stroman?  Well, he’s a pitcher, so there’s an automatic concern that a shoulder, UCL, or some other body part will simply break from the burden of throwing a baseball thousands and thousands of times each season.  Stroman made four trips to the injured list prior to this year.  One was back in 2015 and wiped out most of that season, but of the other three, only one of them was for more than 20 days, so he’s not an especially concerning injury risk.

Stroman is off to a mediocre start to the year, with a 4.88 ERA through his first six starts and 31-1/3 innings, a higher mark than he’s posted since 2018.  It’s likely he’ll his performance will come back in line with prior years, but again, he’s a pitcher, so risk is an ingrained part of his profile.

No. 6: Nolan Arenado, $160M remaining

How can a Platinum-Glove award winning third baseman whose hitting has been well above average every full season of his career except his rookie year be risky?  When he’s 31 years old and is owed a ton of money over the next several seasons.

There’s no denying Arenado is a stud.  He’s won a Gold Glove all nine seasons he’s played in the bigs, earned four Silver Slugger awards, made six All-Star teams, and finished in the top ten of MVP voting five times.  His bat has been 22% better than average by measure of OPS+, and Arenado considered last season somewhat disappointing despite his 34 home runs and 105 RBI, so this year he’s flat-out knocking the snot out of the ball.

His ranking here is further evidence of two things.  First, this division’s teams don’t give out crazy contracts very often.  Second, the future is unknown.  Just about everyone expects Arenado to age gracefully, continue his fine fielding and high-quality hitting, and be one of the leaders of a St. Louis squad that competes for the playoffs on an annual basis.

But if something disastrous happened, something that would put Arenado out for an extended period or, heaven forbid, caused his career to be over, the Cardinals’ assumption of his big contract in their trade with the Rockies would put a significant crimp in their ability to compete.  Is that likely?  No, but the risk is undeniable, and no other player listed so far has a bigger contract on the line.

No. 5: Steven Matz, $42M remaining

What is the current cost of mediocrity?  Well, in the case of Matz, it was four years and $44M.  A career record of 48-51 and an ERA of 4.33 that’s six percent below average during his big-league tenure is a pretty good representation of what you’re going to get from Matz.

Is that valuable?  Well, someone has to throw all those innings each season, so when the options are a known average pitcher vs. a variety of unknown young guys trying to break through, sometimes teams prefer having a guy they can reasonably count on to take the mound on a consistent basis and keep them in ballgames.

In his first eight starts for St. Louis, Matz has been…let’s call it enigmatic.  He’s had two shutout outings, allowed one, two, three, and four runs each in four other starts, and gotten blown up to the tune of 15 earned runs in a combined five innings over two starts.  That mixed bag of performances has resulted in a 3-3 record and 6.03 ERA, with a serious case of homer-itis masking strong strikeout and walk rates.

As with Stroman, there’s heightened injury risk simply because Matz is a pitcher.  He hasn’t been on the injured list since 2020, and his last IL stint longer than 15 days was way back in 2017, so he’s proven to be someone who can be reliably counted on to take his turn in the rotation every 5-6 days.  If only he could be reliably counted on to do well when he pitches.

Yes, the cost of an average free agent pitcher these days is an eight-figure annual salary.  With Matz being 31 years old, and with three more seasons to go on his backloaded contract, the odds of him being worth the investment are, similar to his career win-loss record, probably something less than 50-50.

No. 4: Mike Moustakas, $34M remaining

After signing back-to-back one-year deals with the Royals and Brewers, respectively, Moustakas finally parlayed his career-long solid performances into a multi-year pact, coming to agreement with the Reds on a four-year, $64M contract.

Just to make things fun – okay, actually in deference to Eugenio Suarez at third base – Cincinnati installed Moose as their regular second baseman.  He played there for the first time professional the season before with Milwaukee, but going into a season knowing the keystone would be his primary position was a new experience for Moustakas.  His defense certainly wasn’t going to win any awards, but a second sacker with an above-average bat is a nice thing.

The problem is, Moustakas was just barely above average at the dish in 2020, and he’s been below average ever since.  Additionally, he’s missed about half the Reds’ game since signing due to a mixture of maladies hampering various parts of his body.  That’s not something a small-market team like Cincinnati can endure well, though Moustakas’ contract is far from justification for the teardown the Reds have undergone the last two years.

However, the overall circumstances of each team have to be considered in an evaluation of what makes a bad contract, and from the Reds’ point of view, this has been, and will continue to be, a regrettable signing.

No. 3: Joey Votto, $51M remaining

It’s quite possible this career-long Cincinnati Red will end up with a plaque in Cooperstown one day, because Votto has been one of the best hitters in the game during his 16-year career.  Well, during the first 15 years, at least, because the 2022 campaign has been absolutely brutal for Votto.

His .128/.277/.154 line in 94 plate appearances shows he still has a great eye, as he continues to earn more than his fair share of free passes despite doing virtually nothing when he swings the bat.  And Votto has bounced back from awful stretches before, so we can’t assume he’s really done this time even though he’s now 38 years old.  After all, he hit 36 homers and drove in 99 runs just last season with a 136 OPS+, good enough results to earn Votto some MVP votes.

But the Reds are on the hook for over $50M in guaranteed salary to an aging first baseman.  As they’ve strip down their payroll obligations, there’s little doubt Cincinnati would be glad to get out from under this commitment.  But Votto has repeatedly stateid he does not want to leave the Queen City, and that’s his right as a 10-and-5 player. (Players with 10 years in the majors and five consecutive seasons with the same team earn what is essentially a full no-trade clause.)

Votto just returned to action Friday, and there’s plenty of time left for him to turn his season around.  Does he have another trick up his sleeve, the ability to once again conjure the potent abilities he’s so often shown that strike terror into opposing pitchers?  Maybe, or maybe Votto’s time as a productive ballplayer finally has passed.

No. 2 – Christian Yelich, $182M remaining

Before the season started, there’s a very good chance this contract would have been at the top of the list.  And it wouldn’t be difficult to make that argument today.  However, enough has happened in the last six weeks or so to shuffle things up.

Yelich was a very good player with the Miami Marlins.  Strong batting averages, terrific plate discipline, and developing power all demonstrated his abilities and growth.  Then he was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers and simply took off for stardom.

Yes, the change in ballparks from a pitcher’s paradise to a hitter’s haven helped, but Yelich started elevating the ball, clearing the fences with regularity.  His first two seasons with the Brewers resulted in two All-Star appearances, a pair of Silver Slugger awards, and the MVP trophy in 2017 and a runner-up finish the next season.

But then back issues cropped up, and Yelich’s performance since has been the worst of his career.  Sure, he’s still been solid, but teams don’t give nine-year, $215M contract extensions to solid players.  (Only seven of those years were newly added.)  He’s playing well again so far this season, but there’s a lot of time for things to go wrong, and back injuries tend to recur, so this pact will be scrutinized closely for its duration.

No. 1: Jason Heyward, $38.5M remaining

This is a forward-looking exercise, so if you want to argue the remaining six-plus guaranteed seasons of Yelich’s contract are a bigger risk than Heyward’s final couple of years, that’s understandable.  But Yelich has been between average and great for the Brewers, with indications he can get back to being a very good player.  The odds of Heyward doing so appear much longer.

The Cubs won the bidding for Heyward’s services over his previous team, the Cardinals, after he completed a 2015 campaign during which he earned his third Gold Glove and receive MVP votes for the second time.  Unfortunately, winning the battle seems to have resulted in losing the war.

White Heyward won two more Gold Gloves in his first two seasons on Chicago’s North Side, his bat was decidedly subpar.  Never a power hitter, he combined for just 18 homers combined those first two years and had slugging percentages below .400 both seasons.  The bat got better the next three years, but the glove was no longer award-winning.

And since 2021 started, Heyward has been reduced to a part-time player.  He appeared in just 104 games last season, batting .214/.280/.347 with eight home runs, and this year has been similarly poor, with a .208/.288/.264 line and only three extra-base hits (no homers) in 80 trips to the plate.

Is Heyward done?  Quite possibly.  Is this view of his future salary obligations tainted somewhat by his past underwhelming performance?  Could be.  But considering where the Cubs are today, how Heyward is playing, and how much he’s being paid to do so, this is arguably the worst contract among any players in the entire National League Central.