Cardinals Rumors: What might a Xander Bogaerts extension look like?

The St. Louis Cardinals are being connected to Xander Bogaerts. But what might an extension look like for the star shortstop?

This is a very, very, very, very far look ahead. But with the St. Louis Cardinals in need of a shortstop, and the Xander Bogaerts rumors starting to swirl, it feels right to offer proper context on every layer that the front office has to consider with a move of this magnitude.

Because while the trade compensation is important, what they would need to compensate Bogaerts to keep him in St. Louis long-term is equally important, if not even more important.

Jim Bowden of The Athletic projects Bogaerts to sign a eight-year contract in the range of $216 million. On the surface, that feels about right – that’s $27 million per year – and would make him among the highest paid shortstops in baseball after signing a team-friendly first contract with the Red Sox.

That’s what Bogaerts will be looking for. He will want to break the bank, which is what players expect when they are represented by Scott Boras. That being said, Bogaerts has never been on the open market, and is months away from testing free agency for the first time. Would he even entertain a contract extension before free agency?

It would seem unlikely, especially with Boras preferring his players to establish their value in free agency. That only adds to the risk of a potential Bogaerts trade, as players often go to the highest bidders, and it’s unlikely that the Cardinals would be that team for Bogaerts with Paul Goldschmidt and potentially Nolan Arenado on the roster next season.

If Arenado stays with the Cardinals next season and going forward, extending Bogaerts would seem even more unlikely. That would give them three $25+ million salaries on the books, giving the front office virtually zero flexibility to address other areas of the roster.

Would it be fun? Oh yeah. But the lack of assurance of keeping Bogaerts in St. Louis long-term makes a trade even more unlikely for the Cardinals.