The 6 biggest surprises from the St. Louis Cardinals’ first month

MIAMI, FLORIDA - APRIL 21: Tommy Edman #19 of the St. Louis Cardinals at bat against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park on April 21, 2022 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FLORIDA - APRIL 21: Tommy Edman #19 of the St. Louis Cardinals at bat against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park on April 21, 2022 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
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These have been the six most surprising developments early in the season for the St. Louis Cardinals.

We’re just over a month into the baseball season, and we’ve already seen a few unexpected developments for the St. Louis Cardinals. Ranging from pleasant surprises to sobering disappointments, these are the six biggest surprises the Cardinals have sprung upon me this year.

1. Tommy Edman’s dynamic table-setting

Tommy Edman struggled in Spring Training, and that’s putting it mildly. He performed so poorly that I even wrote an article suggesting he give up switch-hitting. But Edman turned on the lights when the season started and has become a spark plug for the rest of the offense in the leadoff spot.

Manager Oliver Marmol appeared to be phasing Edman out of the top spot in the lineup after his spring struggles and placing Dylan Carlson there instead, but Edman has reclaimed the mantle and solidified the leadoff spot in a way not seen since prime Matt Carpenter.

With the recent demotion of Paul DeJong, it remains to be seen whether Edman will slide over to shortstop at times and, if so, whether that will affect his offensive performance. But so far, it’s impossible to be disappointed with Edman’s performance.

Miles Mikolas #39 of the St. Louis Cardinals pitches against the New York Mets at Busch Stadium on April 25, 2022 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Joe Puetz/Getty Images)
Miles Mikolas #39 of the St. Louis Cardinals pitches against the New York Mets at Busch Stadium on April 25, 2022 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Joe Puetz/Getty Images) /

2. Miles Mikolas’ ace-level pitching

Miles Mikolas has pitched brilliantly in 2022 so far. With multi-month absence of Jack Flaherty, I was concerned about whether someone could step up and be an anchor. To this point, Mikolas has performed admirably. He has a minuscule 1.53 ERA, and his walks per nine innings are at 1.8, so he is showing his usual impeccable control.

I can’t find any Baseball Savant statistics showing a big change in what he’s doing, but hitters do appear to be getting under the ball more often than before against him. It will be interesting to see if whatever Mikolas is doing continues to work.

3. The outfield’s offensive struggles

The starting outfielders came into this season looking poised to take another step forward, but so far, it hasn’t gone the way they had hoped. Carlson, Tyler O’Neill and Harrison Bader haven’t exactly knocked the cover off the ball to this point; in fact, Carlson’s exit velocity ranks in the second percentile of major leaguers, and he has only barreled two balls this year. Harrison Bader isn’t reaching his career highs of last year with the bat so far, but he is making up for it in the stolen-base category.

Tyler O’Neill was the player many fans were most excited about seeing an encore from, and while the stats last year pointed to some likely regression, the pendulum may have swung too far in the other direction. O’Neill is hitting just .206, but his average exit velocity is still respectable. He does, however, need to adjust to seeing the breaking pitch more as pitchers have learned to throw him fewer fastballs.

Lars Nootbaar has been demoted, and Corey Dickerson isn’t giving the team much to cheer about either. The outfield’s paltry offensive performance in 2020 looked to be solved in 2021, but the Cardinals seem to be falling back toward that level of performance again.

Ryan Helsley (56) delivers a pitch against the San Francisco Giants during the seventh inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports
Ryan Helsley (56) delivers a pitch against the San Francisco Giants during the seventh inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports /

4. Ryan Helsley’s utter dominance

I struggle to come up with an adjective that adequately describes Ryan Helsley‘s performance so far, so I’ll just throw some stats at you: 10 innings, one hit, 20 strikeouts, no walks. His Fielding Independent Pitching stat is in the negatives. That just doesn’t happen. While Giovanny Gallegos is doing fine in the closer’s role, it seems like only a matter of time before Marmol hands the reins to Helsley in the ninth inning.

Much of Helsley’s dominance stems from a fastball with almost no vertical drop, which means the illusion of the “rising fastball” is among the most convincing. Helsley has credited his pitching to his shoulder finally being healthy this year. If all that’s required to pitch like this is a healthy shoulder, there’s reason to be very excited.

5. Andrew Knizner’s competence

Since 2019, Andrew Knizner has been Yadier Molina‘s 9,000th caddy behind the plate (or so it seems). In 2021, he received the occasional start, but he didn’t do much with it, hitting .174 and showing below-average framing skills. 2022 looked like it would be another Molina-heavy year; indeed, Molina has announced this will be his final season, so a farewell tour would reasonably be in the cards.

However, Molina had a slow start to the season, and Knizner received more playing time than expected. While he hasn’t set the world on fire, he has looked more comfortable at the plate and behind it, with a .209 average and a .632 OPS. None of that screams “future starter,” but at least he now looks to be able to be a decent seat warmer while Ivan Herrera gets his last few shakes of seasoning in the minor leagues before he takes over in 2023.

6. Paul DeJong’s putridity

This one probably comes more as a surprise to me than to many other fans. I expected DeJong to bounce back this season, and if I’ve learned one thing from this endeavor, it’s to avoid putting any stock in Spring Training statistics. DeJong was pulverizing the ball before the season, and I was starting to feel smug that I was correct about his resurgence.

Instead, DeJong has fallen flat on his face, hitting .130. His slugging percentage is one point below his on-base percentage (.208 to .209). DeJong was finally demoted to Memphis on May 10 to clear up space for the widely anticipated debut of…Kramer Robertson? Oh, OK.

I still have a sliver of hope left that DeJong can turn it around, but I won’t be surprised if this is the last time we see him in St. Louis. Another team might be willing to take a chance and see if he can turn it around.

The Cardinals are sitting pretty in second place in the National League Central right now. Not everything has gone to plan, but there have been some bright spots that Marmol will undoubtedly continue to emphasize. Baseball is a wonderful marathon full of twists, turns, peaks and valleys. Let’s watch and hope the next surprise the Cardinals have in store is a good one.

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