St. Louis Cardinals outfielders’ performance: 2022 is 2020

Tyler O’Neill won his first Gold Glove in 2020.  He also hit .173/.261/.360, which worked out to an OPS+ of 70, putting him 30% below average at the plate.  Unless he was playing shortstop like Ozzie Smith, O’Neill’s bat was going to have to perk up for him to be a key contributor going forward.

Cut to 2021, and things clicked magnificently.  O’Neill maintained his Gold Glove performance in left field while crushing 34 homers and batting .286/.352/.560, a 146 OPS+.  Sure, his strikeout percentage increased from 2020’s worrisome 27.4% to a cringe-worthy 31.3%, and his walk rate dropped from 9.6% to 7.1%, but the powerful contact he made when the bat found the ball was worth it.  O’Neill also chipped in 15 steals in 19 attempts, all adding up to an eight-place finish in MVP voting.  Heading into his age-27 season, things were looking very promising.

So far, not so good.  In about two thirds as many plate appearances as he had in that dreadful ’20 campaign, O’Neill is hitting .206/.277/.330, a disappointing OPS+ of 82.  He has only two long balls so far, though a 3-for-4 performance on stolen bases offers a glimmer of positivity.  While he is walking 9.8% of the time, he’s whiffing in 27.7% of his at-bats.

Something closer to last year’s numbers are going to be needed for O’Neill to continue as a heart-of-the-order threat.  He needs to improve, and even more so, the team needs his improvement.

Harrison Bader actually had the same 114 OPS+ in both 2020 and ’21, though the way he got to that mark was different each season.  Two years ago, he posted a .226/.336/.443 triple-slash line that featured a wild 32.0% strikeout rate and a 10.4% walk rate.  Last season he put up a .267/.324/.460 line while making much more contact, dropping his K rate to 21.2% while walking only 6.7% of the time.

Bader paired last season’s above-average batting with his first Gold Glove.  His success on both sides of the ball earned Bader a two-year, $10.4 contract just days before this season began.  The hope was he would maintain an above-average bat while pairing it with his stellar glovework.

At this point, the glove seems fine, but the stick is decidedly average.  A solid weekend bumped his numbers up to .239/.317/.348 line.  That isn’t awful in the horrendous offensive environment of 2022; in fact, it’s spot on average in terms of OPS+ at 100.  Bader is making reasonable swing decisions, with a 15.4% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate, but the results aren’t there yet.

Maybe it will just take a little more time and some warmer weather for Bader (and others) to heat up, but at this point his bat needs to do more to help.

Dylan Carlson broke into the majors during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, and he and Dexter Fowler had a similar number of plate appearances, with Carlson coming to bat 119 times and Fowler 101.

Carlson’s struggles could at least partially be blamed on the weird year and it being his first season in the big leagues, as his resulting .200/.252/.364 line and 68 OPS+ showed he had still had work to do to become a big leaguer.

The strange 2020 season was similar justification for Fowler, though you’d think his experience would help him overcome that to some extent.  And he was the better of the two, with his .233/.317/.389 triple-slash yielding a 95 OPS+.

While Fowler moved on from St. Louis after that year, Carlson moved up, taking over as a full-time outfielder.  His bat came around, with a .266/.343/.437 line very similar to Bader’s mark, and both outfielders posted the same 114 OPS+ last season.

While Carlson’s counting stats weren’t spectacular with 18 home runs, 65 RBI, and 79 runs scored, it was still a nice showing for a 22-year-old player and good enough to earn him third place in Rookie of the Year voting.

As with his teammates, the expectation was Carlson would continue to grow and improve.  However, that hasn’t happened so far in 2022, with him batting .220/.273/.330 with one homer and only eight RBI, numbers that have yielded an 81 OPS+.

Hitters all around baseball are scuffling.  Sure, not everyone, but when the league as a whole has a .232 batting average, you know hitters are suffering.  Warmer weather should help the ball carry, and you never know what Major League Baseball may do to the baseballs at any given time.

For the Cardinals, they need their outfielders to step up.  After a few years in the wilderness, with St. Louis mixing and matching unsuccessfully to find a trio that worked, the 2021 campaign offered not just promise but strong results in left, center, and right fields.

The 2022 season has seen that promise unfulfilled thus far.  Among their staring outfielders, only Bader has a batting average above that low .232 standard, and he’s also the only one of the three to have an on-base percentage over .300.  None of them has a slugging percentage above .350.

Overall, their results to date are even worse than 2020’s poor numbers.  Unless and until things turn around, the Cardinals’ upstart outfield is living more on last year’s performances and the promise of improvement.  Sooner or later, the results need to catch up with the hope the team and its fans have placed in them.