Buy or Sell: St. Louis Cardinals Early Season Performances
Buy or Sell: St. Louis Cardinals Early Season Performances
As of April 25th, the St. Louis Cardinals sit at 9-5 after another series win against the Cincinnati Reds. We are now just about 10% of the way through the season, and while that still remains a very low sample size, it is interesting to begin looking at some of the trends of some Cardinals who have had polarizing starts to the year.
St. Louis as a whole has gotten off to a hot start to the season, but there is a range of surprising performances on the positive and negative ends of the spectrum that are beginning to become narratives for the ballclub. The question becomes, which of these performances are real, and which will change as the season progressses?
Similar to previous installments of “Buy or Sell”, this article will breakdown five of the more notable starts to the 2022 season for the Cardinals and whether or not the success, or struggles, of the player will continue as the season progresses. There stats will be reflective of games through April 24th. The players that will be looked at in this article include Nolan Arenado, Yadier Molina, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong and Tommy Edman. Let’s take a look at this edition of Buy or Sell: Early Season Performers.
Nolan Arenado
2022 Stats: .364/.426/.727, 5 HR, 5 2B, 14 RBI, 0 SB, 12 SO, 1.4 WAR
Verdict: Buy
Nolan Arenado has started his second season with the St. Louis Cardinals on an absolute tear, winning NL Player of the Week for the opening weekend of games as well as emerging nationally as an MVP candidate for the St. Louis club. Despite playing like an All-Star in his first season in St. Louis, many wondered if Arenado could regain some of his play from his prime Colorado days. Needless to say, so far, so good.
Just like any player leaving the comforts of Coors Field after spending their entire career there, it was going to take a period of adjustment for Arenado to find his groove and St. Louis at the plate, and he has now done so while maintaining his mantel as one of the best defenders in baseball. Arenado has provided elite protection for Goldschmidt and O’Neill so far this season, and has benefited greatly from a deeper lineup that can cause issues for an opposing pitcher.
Expect Nolan Arenado to be in the MVP conversation all year long and be one of, if not the major reason, this St. Louis club defies national expectations coming into the season.
Yadier Molina
2022 Stats: .138/.138/.276, 0 HR, 0 2B, 0 RBI, 0 SB, 3 SO, -0.3 WAR
Verdict: Buy
As unbelievable as it may be to many within Cardinals fans, it appears that “Father Time” may be ruining the farewell season from Yadier Molina.
The 2022 season has special significance for Cardinals fans as the trio of Molina, Albert Pujols, and Adam Wainwright have reunited for one final run together. While Pujols and Wainwright have gotten off to great starts, Molina seems to have really plummeted as a player, specifically at the plate.
Molina’s average, OBP, and SLG, have been on the decline the last few seasons, and have fallen off a cliff in 2022. Although it is likely Molina’s average rises above .200 and his OBP sits in the higher .200s in the next few weeks, the Cardinals longtime catcher should be expected to struggle at the plate this season. Molina does remain one of the better defensive catchers in baseball and his impact on the pitching staff cannot be measured.
What remains to be seen as the season progresses is how much playing time Molina loses to his counter part Andrew Knizner, who is off to a hot start to the 2022 season. If Knizner continues to swing a hot bat, Oli Marmol may have no choice but to sit Molina more frequently than anticipated coming into this season.
Paul Goldschmidt
2022 Stats: .236/.323/.309, 0 HR, 4 2B, 5 RBI, 2 SB, 11 SO, 0 WAR
Verdict: Sell
Paul Goldschmidt’s 2022 season has gotten off to a bit of a slow start, but St. Louis fans should expect the slugger to heat up as the season progresses. Notorious for slow starts to seasons, the month of April has been the first baseman’s worst month over his career and heats up big time in the summer months.
Goldschmidt swung a hot bat in Spring Training and is hitting in the two hole in one of the best lineups in baseball. His his incredible command of the strike zone and ability to hit for power while also getting on base at a high clip will be replicated as Goldschmidt gets more reps in this season.
Goldschmidt is too talented of a player to not be an elite bat in this St. Louis lineup, and it is only a matter of time before the slugger gets going again.
Paul DeJong
2022 Stats: .139/.262/.278, 1 HR, 2 2B, 4 RBI, 2 SB, 15 SO, 0.3 WAR
Verdict: Buy
Easily the biggest question mark facing the 2022 St. Louis Cardinals’ lineup was what version of Paul DeJong was going to show up for this season. Unfortunately for DeJong and the club, DeJong continues to look far removed from his past All-Star self.
DeJong still possess the power necessary to change a game with one swing of the bat, and is one of the better defensive shortstops in all of baseball. The issues remain the same with DeJong though, high strikeout rate paired with low on-base skills, and the power is just not consistent enough to balance that out.
With Edmundo Sosa, Tommy Edman, Brendan Donavan, and Nolan Gorman all vying for playing time in the middle infield, DeJong may find himself losing playing time quickly, and based on his start to the season, I was predict his struggles continue as other names rise to replace him in the lineup.
Tommy Edman
2022 Stats: .313/.400/.563, 3 HR, 1 2B, 8 RBI, 1 SB, 7 SO, 1.0 WAR
Verdict: Sell
Tommy Edman has gotten off to a hot start for the Redbirds, rebounding from a poor spring to be one of the best hitters on the club so far this season.
Despite this incredible start, Cardinal fans should expect Edman’s numbers shift across the board to be more around his career averages. Expect to see Edman slash closer to .275/.350/.490 and have an uptick in doubles and stolen bases while seeing his home runs and RBIs drop.
Edman has proven so far this season that he deserves a role in the every day lineup and can be a great contributor to the winning club, but to expect his stats to remain this incredible would be a huge stretch for the Cardinal second baseman. Expect him to continue to provide elite defensive at second base for the time being, and potentially shift his way over to short stop if Nolan Gorman receives a promotion in the near future.