3 Early Red Flags for the St. Louis Cardinals

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Harrison Bader of the St. Louis Cardinals reacts after striking out against the Miami Marlins during the eighth inning at loanDepot park on April 21, 2022 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images) /

These are early three warning signs for the St. Louis Cardinals season.

At the beginning of every season, it is easy to overreact to team trends or results on such a small sample size.

It can be very difficult to tell at times if it is a sign of things to come, or just the current state of the ballclub. Just ask the 2019 Nationals when their team was below .500 late after 60 games played and went on to win the World Series.

While making strong judgements about the St. Louis Cardinals may be too early, there is enough of a sample size now to identify “red flags”.

When looking at a red flag, it is best to define this as a “major concern” that can be observed about the club early on. This does not mean the club cannot rebound from it or make a change to solve it, but it does mean the Cardinals current play or state lends concern in this area.

This article will identify three of the biggest red flags for the club as of April 26. Fans could argue there are other red flags associated with the team, but these three red flags will be the issues that could plague the club throughout the year and prevent them from reaching the heights that they aspire two.

St Louis Cardinals Red Flag No. 1: The Cardinals have been beating themselves

This has got to be the most frustrating and potentially biggest red flag facing a club at any point in a season. When you play great baseball, you should win games. When the opponent plays better, you tip your cap to them. But when games are lost on self-inflicted wounds, it kills team momentum and can be extremely difficult to bounce back from.

Just take the Cardinals 5-2 loss to the Mets on April 25th. Miles Mikolas went toe to toe with Max Scherezer and kept St. Louis in the game, and Tyler O’Neill put the club ahead 2-0 in the bottom of the 8th. In the 9th inning, a missed opportunity to tag third base and end the game by Nolan Arenado and an inexcusable mental error by Giovanni Gallegos gifted the flounder Mets a comeback win.

Fans who have watched the team over the last few years know that this has been a frustrating reality with the team. Whether it is unforced mental errors, sloppy defense (although that has improved greatly), runners left in scoring position, or walking high numbers of batters, the Cardinals can be prone to handing games over to their opponent.

Giving these kinds of games away not only kills momentum for a team trying to compete at a high level, but these games can add up and be the difference between a division title and the Wild Card, or even between sneaking into the playoffs and missing all together. If the Cardinals are serious about a deep playoff run, manager Oli Marmol has to find a way to get this club playing sound baseball in big moments.

Tyler O’Neill #27 of the St. Louis Cardinals walks back to the dugout after striking out in the ninth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on April 22, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

St Louis Cardinals Red Flag No. 2: Offense is Bottom of League in Advanced Metrics

Despite a hot start for the offense during the first few series, the St. Louis Cardinals’ offense now ranks bottom five in the league in many of the advanced offensive metrics.

According to MLB Statcast, the Cardinals rank bottom five in Bbrls/PA% (how often they are barreling up baseballs), hard hit %, average home run distance, and sweet spot %. There are some encouraging numbers though, as their launch angles are elite and strikeout rate is bottom five. But overall, these are concerning numbers for a club who’s offense really needs to carry them in order to compete.

There are a few different ways you can look at this. Slow starts from key contributors like Paul Goldschmidt, Dylan Carlson, and Tyler O’Neill should turn around in the near future. Struggles from players like DeJong and Molina though may be a sign of things to come, but inserting Nolan Gorman into the lineup in the near future and giving Andrew Knizner more playing time can help with these.

Regardless, hot starts from Nolan Arenado and Tommy Edman be even be raising these numbers up above what would be a disastrous start to the season. The Cardinals offense over the last few years has notoriously been hot and cold. The club can score 7+ runs one day and then be shut out the next, lead the league in offense one month and look like a AAA club the next.

Hitting coach Jeff Albert is confident that buy in to his methods will play dividends, but if the club does not turn its numbers around in the next month, many will wonder whether major changes need to happen.

Mike Maddux of the St. Louis Cardinals talks to Adam Wainwright #50 during a mound visit during the fifth inning against the Oakland Athletics at the RingCentral Coliseum on August 4, 2019 in Oakland, California. The Oakland Athletics defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 4-2. (Photo by Jason O. Watson/Getty Images) /

St Louis Cardinals Red Flag No. 3: Inconsistent Starting Pitching

Going into the 2022 season, starting pitching had to be the top of everyone’s “red flag” list. Depending on the day you watch this rotation, you may see them go toe to toe with an ace, or get beat up by a below average offense.

As far as stats go via MLB.com, the rotation currently ranks bottom 10 in baseball in innings pitched and opponents batting average. The four traditional starters (Wainwright, Mikolas, Matz, and Hudson) have all had excellent and disastrous starts. Opener Jordan Hicks has not wowed by any means. The club hopes to get Jack Flaherty back in the near future, but the club should be worried if any injuries occur.

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Some would argue this is a better start for the rotation then expected, but the signs for struggling pitching are still there. Thankfully the Cardinals bullpen has been elite thus far, but St. Louis cannot rely on the bullpen to consistently come into games early and put up zeros. Starters need to get deeper into games so the bullpen is not overworked, or asked to produce more than it should.

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St Louis Cardinals Red Flag No. 1: The Cardinals have been beating themselves

St Louis Cardinals Red Flag No. 2: Offense is Bottom of League in Advanced Metrics

St Louis Cardinals Red Flag No. 3: Inconsistent Starting Pitching

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