Predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals 2022 season

Ben Remis (@BenRemis on Twitter)

MVP: Nolan Arenado

Toy Story, Lord of the Rings, and The Godfather– all fantastic films, sure. But then you see the sequel. Well, get ready to add Nolan Arenado in St. Louis to that exclusive list.

As tempting as it was for me to force Yadier Molina or Albert Pujols into this spot, the MVP of this team has to be the man at the hot corner. Defense, offense, leadership– this guy does it all.

Cy Young: Adam Wainwright

Who else? It is a little worrisome to have a 40-year starter projected as the best pitcher on a team contending for the playoffs. Especially with Jack Flaherty starting the year on the IL, there is no doubt that Adam Wainwright has to carry this pitching staff.

All that being said, I’m confident that this isn’t a Cy Young by default. Wainwright had one of his best years last year, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t duplicate that success one more time.

X-Factor: Jordan Hicks

I once ranked Jordan Hicks as the 3rd most valuable Cardinal in my off-season future value rankings. Unfortunately, a series of injuries has limited the hardest-throwing pitcher in baseball. If Jordan Hicks is back, however, then the Cardinals once again have the ultimate weapon on the mound.

Hicks is a starter now. Not sure how that will work out when Jack Flaherty comes back (six-man rotation I guess?), but only time will tell what the true ceiling is for the talented young flamethrower.

Two-sentence team evaluation: Will the young, rising talent mesh well with the old guard and echo 2011, or is this year just a set-up for 2023? How do we define success for a team celebrating the careers of three generational players?

Bold prediction: Dylan Carlson finishes top 10 in MVP voting

Here’s a quick player comparison for you:

Player A rookie season: #1 prospect in baseball, .272/.339/.433, 15 home runs, 106 OPS+, 6th in rookie of the year voting.

Player B rookie season: #14 prospect in baseball, .266/.343/.437, 18 home runs, 117 OPS+, 3rd in rookie of the year voting

Player A second full season: .311/.401/.601, 48 home runs, 169 OPS+, 2nd in MVP voting.

Well, Vlad Guerrero Jr. is Player A (2020 was ignored, because those 60 games were really weird). I’m not saying that Player B is a generational talent like Vladdy, but the Dylan Carlson breakout season is upon us. Remember how excited we were for his debut?

We’re all excited to see the continued success of Tyler O’Neill and Harrison Bader, but by the end of this year, Carlson will be the best outfielder in St. Louis. In fact, I’ll double-down on my bold prediction: both Arenado and Carlson will finish in the top 10 in MVP voting, with one of them in the top three.

J.T. Buchheit (@jbuc14)

MVP: Tyler O’Neill

I’m seeing fans and stats say O’Neill won’t be able to replicate his 2021 numbers. And while I don’t necessarily disagree, I still think he will be the Cardinals’ most impactful player. He really does it all: He hits, he runs and he plays stellar defense. He’s also in the prime years of his career. No disrespect to Paul Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado — I’m sure they’ll be great — but we’ve probably seen the best they have to offer. O’Neill provides more tools and more excitement for the Cardinals these days.

Cy Young: Adam Wainwright

Can Wainwright’s looping curveball continue to baffle hitters? I’m hoping so, because with the injury to Jack Flaherty, the rest of the rotation doesn’t inspire too much confidence. Wainwright, like O’Neill, might have overperformed his peripherals last season, but there’s just no reason to doubt a guy who’s cracked the code on this game and had a career renaissance in his late 30s.

X-Factor: Paul DeJong

I considered putting him in my “bold prediction” column, and DeJong’s spring training so far is making my article that mentioned giving him another chance look pretty prescient right now. DeJong needs to have a bounce-back season. Edmundo Sosa is serviceable, but I have my doubts on his ability to continue to provide production in the same way he did last year. But if Sosa can prove me wrong, he and DeJong could push Tommy Edman into a utility role. If DeJong can provide solid power and strong defense, he will once again be a pillar for the Cardinals.

Two-sentence evaluation: This is a team focused on getting butts in seats with nostalgia, but in a weak NL Central and with expanded playoffs, the Cardinals have a chance. Anything can happen in the postseason, so the Cardinals will likely hope for the pixie dust to swirl in their favor this year.

Bold prediction: Fans will tire of Albert Pujols’ presence by midseason.

The Pujols reunion will be awesome…for maybe a week. When he proves himself to be a hindrance to the team’s chances of winning as Oliver Marmol is forced to keep penciling him in the lineup, the fans who cheered his signing will start to murmur their dissatisfaction.

Greg Simons (@GregSimonsSays)

MVP: Tyler O’Neill

The old guard is getting all the headlines now with Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright being joined by Albert Pujols for what is likely a farewell tour for all three of these Cardinals great.  However, younger players will establish themselves as team anchors, with O’Neill leading the way.  Power, speed, defense, what else are you looking for in a player?  An ability to strike out less than 30% of the time?  Well, sure, that would be nice, but he does everything else so well.

Cy Young: Miles Mikolas

While it’s difficult to pick against Wainwright, at some point age will catch up with him.  I certainly hope it’s not this season, but I’m going out on a limb and suggesting Mikolas comes back healthy and strong, limiting walks, inducing grounders for the stellar Cardinals defense to eat up, and providing enough innings to justify his lofty $17M salary.  He doesn’t have to be great, just good enough.

X-Factor: Dakota Hudson

With Jack Flaherty already on the injured list, this Cardinals team needs somebody to pitch a good number of innings.  Already slotted into the rotation, there’s now added pressure for Hudson to be a solid contributor.  He doesn’t have a big paycheck to justify like Mikolas, but he does need to provide a similar number of innings.  And also like Mikolas, he doesn’t have to be great, just good enough.

Two-sentence team evaluation: With the front office mostly just making tweaks around the edges of the roster besides the Steven Matz signing, it’s largely up to last year’s squad to perform at a similar level this season.  Improvement and bounce-backs from younger players will need to offset the effects of time on the elder statesmen, and it will be enough to get St. Louis back to the playoffs as a Wild Card team.

Bold prediction: Tyler O’Neill finishes in the top five of MVP voting

O’Neill finished eighth in MVP voting last season, two spots behind teammate Paul Goldschmidt.  This year, O’Neill steps up his game even further, stays healthy, and leads the Cardinals to the playoffs.  He may not be the best player in the National League, but he’ll be in the conversation the next few years.

Russ Robinson (@frrobinson1957)

MVP: Nolan Arenado

I know a case can be made for Tyler O’Neill or Paul Goldschmit for MVP. However, this is Arenado’s second year playing in Busch Stadium. Although Arenado only hit .228 at Busch last year, I think he will be more comfortable hitting in Busch in 2022. Goldschmidt improved his slashline significantly across the board during his second season in St. Louis. So will Arenado. I see a big year for the Cardinals third baseman.

Cy Young: No one

Listen, I know I’m copping out here. But without Jack Flaherty available to start the season, I just can’t see anyone on this staff being a serious candidate for the Cy Young Award. Hudson and Mikolas are just returning from injuries, and Wainwright’s Cy Young days are behind him. Forget anyone else.

X-Factor: Jack Flaherty

Jack Flaherty’s return from injury will make the difference whether this team has any shot at the NL Pennant. Without Flaherty, there isn’t just enough depth with the rotation. If Flaherty returns by May, and he’s healthy, this team is good enough to make a deep postseason run.

Two sentence team evaluation: To paraphrase the political consultant James Carville, “It’s the rotation stupid.” The offense will be good, defense outstanding, the bullpen looks deep enough, but the rotation is the key to any success.

Bold Prediction: Harrison Bader will get a serious look at leadoff 

Bader has one stat from last year that may give the analytic driven Cardinals a cause to consider: when leading off an inning, Bader has a slash line of .333/.370/.678 with an OPS+ of 179 in 92 PA.

Dane Aerne-Moore (@dane_a_m)

MVP: Paul Goldschmidt

Paul Goldschmidt has routinely been a slow starter in his STL tenure. Should his white hot spring carry over into the regular season Goldschmidt could very well bring home his first career MVP. His defense has always been unquestioned, last year’s Gold Glove backed that up. Should he start hot, a triple slash of .300/.400/.600 is not out of the question with 35+ bombs.

Cy Young: Giovanny Gallegos

With Jack Flaherty missing time this year, I believe Gallegos has the best chance of any Cardinals pitcher to come home with the Cy Young. Gallegos quietly had a dominant 2021 season, striking out 95 hitters over 80 innings with a 3.02 ERA. Should he become a touch more stable and consistent, it isn’t unreasonable to imagine that Gallegos comes up with an ERA under 2.00 over 85 or so innings.

X-Factor: Albert Pujols

Albert Pujols is now on the wrong side of 40, and was my favorite player when I first learned to talk. Now I’m allowed in bars and Albert is back in a Cardinals uniform. I’ve said in the past that the Cardinals haven’t had great pinch hitters. But I wouldn’t want to be the pitcher throwing to Albert with 2 outs in the 9th with the game on the line.

Two sentence team evaluation: This team isn’t good enough to win it all. But it will be the most enjoyable to watch since our 100 game winner in 2015.

Bold prediction: Nolan Gorman finishes 3rd on the team in HRs

Gorman will finish third, behind Goldschmidt and Tyler O’Neill. We should see him up sometime shortly after Super 2 status runs out. I predict that he takes the 2B job and runs with it on his way to Rookie of the Year consideration.

Josh Jacobs (@joshjaco2)

MVP: Tyler O’Neill

After finishing top 10 in MVP voting in his first full season as Cardinal starter, O’Neill is poised to put all five tools together again for another incredible season. Already a two time Gold Glover, O’Neill will earn his first All-Star appearance, finish top 5 in the NL MVP voting, and hit over 40 home runs for St. Louis.

Cy Young: Adam Wainwright

I was tempted to choose Dakota Hudson, but it feels right for Wainwright to finish his Cardinal career as the staple of the rotation once again. He may not be the most dominant starter in the rotation at the end of the season, but his consistency and ability to go deep into games will be huge for a thin Cardinal pitching staff.

X-Factor: Nolan Gorman

The highly touted Cardinal prospect has the potential to transform the Cardinals lineup by giving the club a powerful bat from the left handed side. If Gorman lives up to some of that potential this year, he could platoon at DH with Albert Pujols and slot in at 2nd base on other days to give the Cardinals lineup another dangerous bat in the 5th or 6th spot of the order.

Two sentence team evaluation: The 2022 Cardinals are banking that their strong finish to 2021 was a preview of what this team will be. With the continued development of younger players on the club, St. Louis could be a dangerous team come October.

Bold prediction: Watch out for Nolan Gorman

By the end of the 2022 season, Nolan Gorman will have cemented himself as an everyday player between 2nd base and DH, and Tommy Edman will become the super utility man that he was when he first debuted for the Cardinal ball club.

Miranda Remaklus (@missmiranda)

MVP: Tyler O’Neill

He will pick up where he left off in 2022 and steadily improve. He will continue to be an outstanding defensive outfielder, getting his third consecutive Gold Glove. He will lead the team in home runs, having a running competition all season with Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Paul DeJong.

Cy Young: Dakota Hudson

He will have a break out season and dominate. He leads the pitching staff until the return of Jack Flaherty in June. He and Flaherty will become co-aces of the staff. Hudson receives honors for leading the staff. Miles Mikolas’s revenge tour will be epic, as well.

X-Factor: Paul DeJong

If DeJong returns to form as an elite shortstop and hits the way we saw in 2018 and 2019, he will be a tremendous asset to the club down the stretch. Dylan Carlson is another x-factor if he also becomes a Gold Glove winning outfielder. He can hit. He just needs to do so consistently. Albert Pujols and Corey Dickerson will be important depending on how well they step into their designated hitting/bench option roles.

Two sentence team evaluation: Much is expected of this incredibly talented team. If they can pull it all together, they will indeed be incredible.

Bold prediction: Lots of October baseball

I think the Cardinals will be better than many think. It won’t be an easy ride but with so much talent, a 12th World Championship in 2022 is within grasp.

Andy Heckroth (@AHeckroth16)

MVP: Nolan Arenado

Now that Arenado got a full season under his belt in St. Louis (and hitting in Busch Stadium III), I expect his numbers to improve from 2021, especially at home. Even by his own admission, he wants to get better at reaching base and slugging percentage. This bodes well with how the Cardinals’ players re-committed to Jeff Albert’s analytical approach and emphasis on hard-hit contact.

Cy Young: Adam Wainwright

Jack Flaherty would occupy this spot, but we don’t know for sure when he will be back. Until then, Wainwright takes this spot. At age 39, Wainwright went 17-7 with a 3.05 ERA and had his most strikeouts since 2014. It’s understandable why the analytics and data don’t see a repeat performance, but I bet the baseball analysts haven’t faced an Uncle Charlie curveball before.

X-Factor: Albert Pujols I never in a million years thought Albert Pujols would be “an X factor” for the Cardinals, but here we are in 2022. Placing Pujols at the DH role is asking a lot for him given his age and past production in his last few years with the Angels. Pujols’ Spring Training performance has been encouraging though, and if he can get going, this won’t be just a “nostalgia” signing.

Two Sentence Team Evaluation: At best, this is a team that can get hot and compete with the Dodgers and Braves for the NL pennant. At worst, the rotation falters, the offense goes back to June 2021, and they finish with 80-83 wins.

Bold Prediction: A very specific postseason scenario

The Cardinals win the NL Central and force a Game 7 at Dodger Stadium in the NLCS. Oliver Marmol wins NL Manager of the Year.