Buy or Sell: 2022 Projections for St. Louis Cardinals Rotation

In this edition of “Buy or Sell”, we take a look at Baseball References 2022 projections for the St. Louis Cardinals starting rotation.

In the second of a four part series of “Buy or Sell: 2022 St. Louis Cardinals Projections”, we take a look at what Baseball Reference is projecting for the rotation in 2022. This article will look at the best “on paper” rotation (Wainwright, Flaherty, Matz, Hudson, and Mikolas), and later projection articles will look at some of the swingmen or injury fill ins.

Here are the other articles in this series:

Cardinals Starting Lineup Projections

Cardinals Bullpen Projections (Coming Soon)

Cardinals Bench/Swing Pitching/Prospect Debut Projections (Coming Soon)

Adam Wainwright

2022 Projection: Record: 13-8, ERA: 3.63, Innings: 181, SO: 154, BB: 55, WHIP: 1.21

Verdict: Buy

After an incredible age 39 season where Adam Wainwright went 17-7 with an ERA of 3.05 over 206 innings, some regression should be expected. Fortunately for the Cardinals, even these projected regressions still bode extremely well for a starting pitcher on the cusp of 40 years old.

Wainwright, when healthy, has always been an innings eater, which will be huge for a club that desperately needs stability. Wainwright will be the club’s opening day starter, and there is reason to believe that is probable last season will be another good one.

Jack Flaherty 

2022 Projection: Record: 9-5, ERA: 3.58, Innings: 108, SO: 119, BB: 36, WHIP: 1.12

Verdict: Buy

After already projecting to start the season on the IL, Jack Flaherty will need to remain healthy when he returns to hit his innings projection, but there is reason to believe he can put up those kinds of numbers in 2022.

Flaherty, when healthy, has some of the best stuff in all of baseball. It wasn’t long ago that Flaherty had one of the greatest second halves in MLB history, and both the Cardinals and their fans should be rooting for a resurgence. If he can return and pitch to the ability that Baseball Reference projects, that gives St. Louis a solid 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation.

Steven Matz

2022 Projection: Record: 10-8, ERA: 4.37, Innings: 142, SO: 138, BB: 46, WHIP: 1.32

Verdict: Sell

After signing with the St. Louis Cardinals prior to the lockout, Steven Matz projects to be the only lefty in the Cardinals rotation, barring Matthew Liberatore cracking it with projected injuries. Oddly enough though, a move away from the AL East has not treated Matz kindly in Baseball Reference projections.

After posting a 3.82 ERA over 150 innings to a record of 14-7, a move to the NL Central in front of the league’s best infield defense should improve Matz’s numbers in 2022. Although the National League now has the DH, pitching against teams like the Brewers, Reds, Pirates, and Cubs consistently should favor Matz as opposed to the Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles.

Expect a better record from Matz, and an ERA closer to the 3.60 range for the lefty.