Buy or Sell: 2022 Projections for St. Louis Cardinals Rotation

In this edition of “Buy or Sell”, we take a look at Baseball References 2022 projections for the St. Louis Cardinals starting rotation.

In the second of a four part series of “Buy or Sell: 2022 St. Louis Cardinals Projections”, we take a look at what Baseball Reference is projecting for the rotation in 2022. This article will look at the best “on paper” rotation (Wainwright, Flaherty, Matz, Hudson, and Mikolas), and later projection articles will look at some of the swingmen or injury fill ins.

Here are the other articles in this series:

Cardinals Starting Lineup Projections

Cardinals Bullpen Projections (Coming Soon)

Cardinals Bench/Swing Pitching/Prospect Debut Projections (Coming Soon)

Steven Matz

2022 Projection: Record: 10-8, ERA: 4.37, Innings: 142, SO: 138, BB: 46, WHIP: 1.32

Verdict: Sell

After signing with the St. Louis Cardinals prior to the lockout, Steven Matz projects to be the only lefty in the Cardinals rotation, barring Matthew Liberatore cracking it with projected injuries. Oddly enough though, a move away from the AL East has not treated Matz kindly in Baseball Reference projections.

After posting a 3.82 ERA over 150 innings to a record of 14-7, a move to the NL Central in front of the league’s best infield defense should improve Matz’s numbers in 2022. Although the National League now has the DH, pitching against teams like the Brewers, Reds, Pirates, and Cubs consistently should favor Matz as opposed to the Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles.

Expect a better record from Matz, and an ERA closer to the 3.60 range for the lefty.

Dakota Hudson

2022 Projection: Record: 5-3, ERA: 3.63, Innings: 72, SO: 64, BB: 29, WHIP: 1.28

Verdict: Sell

Dakota Hudson returns to the St. Louis Cardinals rotation after missing the majority of 2020 and 2021 with Tommy John surgery. Hudson was a promising young pitcher for the club in 2018 and 2019, and the St. Louis Cardinals brass believes Hudson will get back to his rise to being a high level starter.

In his first full season back, his ERA and WHIP projections seem pretty realistic as he looks to find his groove again, but only 72 innings is projecting more injuries onto the Cardinal right hander, and although they do happen, Hudson was able to hit 174.2 innings in his full season as a starter, so expect 150ish innings if he is healthy. There is reason to believe he will put up better numbers than is even projected as well.

Miles Mikolas

2022 Projections: Record: 4-5, ERA: 4.28, Innings: 82, SO: 70, BB: 24, WHIP: 1.28

Verdict: Buy

Miles Mikolas has had an up and down tenure with the St. Louis Cardinals. In his first season with the club in 2018, he was an All-Star and finished 6th in Cy Young voting. He struggled a bit in 2019, and then missed all of 2020 and most of 2021 with injuries.

Coming into 2022, expectations should be low for what Mikolas can bring to the rotation. I would project more than 82 innings for him, but an ERA of 4.28 seems to be what the Cardinals should expect from him, but would be excited to see him catch some of his 2018 form.