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3B Nolan Arenado
2022 Projection: BA: .264, OBP: .326, SLG: .487, OPS: .812, R: 75, 2B: 28, 3B: 2, HR: 28, RBI: 88, SB: 3, CS: 1, BB: 48, SO: 90
Verdict: Sell
This was a difficult decision, but I lean more toward sell with Nolan Arenado’s projections than I would buy. First thoughts would be his extra base hits, RBIs, even OBP/SLG/OPS seem low, but this is only year two of Nolan Arenado being removed from the “Coors Field effect”. It will be interesting to see if the transition to St. Louis has less of an impact on him, but I think overall, the numbers he put up in 2021 are probably about the new normal for Arenado.
I would expect Nolan to be over 30 2Bs and HRs again, close to 100 RBIs, and an increase in OBP, with throughout his career, has sat closer to .370.
RF Dylan Carlson
2022 Projection: BA: .259, OBP: .335, SLG: .429, OPS: .763, R: 68, H: 124, 2B: 27, 3B: 3, HR: 16, RBI: 61, SB: 3, CS: 1, BB: 49, SO: 130
Verdict: Buy
There’s a little bit of grip with the BA, OBP, and and XBH for Dylan Carlson, but overall this is a pretty good projection.
Carlson has the potential to breakout and really become an on base and doubles machine, but that may be more of a 2023 reality than this coming season. In order to capitalize on the higher average and high amount of XBHs, Dylan will need to improve on his .243 average against right handed pitching last year, and up his 13 XBHs against left handed pitching. Dylan is an elite on base hitter against left handed pitching a very good extra base hit threat against righties, but there will need to be more balance for him to achieve his potential.