Buy or Sell: 2022 Projections for St. Louis Cardinals Lineup

The regular season is right around the corner and Baseball Reference has posted their 2022 projections. Buy or sell how they see the Cardinals lineup?

The 2022 season kicks off on April 7, and it’s time to look at the projections for the expected Opening Day roster for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Over the next week, I’ll be doing a mini series breaking down the Baseball Reference‘s 2022 projections for each Cardinals player, buying or selling the numbers they have for them. Here is a breakdown of how this will be broken down:

Cardinals Starting Lineup Projections

Cardinals Rotation Projections

Cardinals Bullpen Projections

Cardinals Bench/Swing Pitching/Prospect Debut Projections

This article will take a look at what Baseball Reference has projected for the likely Opening Day Starting Lineup.

LF Tyler O’Neill

2022 Projection: BA: .262, OBP: .331, SLG: .487, OPS: .818, R: 75, H: 120, 2B: 23, 3B: 1, HR: 26, RBI: 68, SB: 11, CS: 3, BB: 40, SO: 148

Verdict: Sell

There seems to be a lot of debate about whether or not Tyler O’Neill can keep up the production he had last year and even build upon it, and if you watched him closely in 2021, you’d be confident in his production being here to stay.

After making critical adjustments to his swing and approach at the plate, it all came together for O’Neill as he finished 8th in the NL MVP voting. Tyler O’Neill has long been seen as a five tool player, with a plus glove, power, and speed, and he found a way to hone it all in to be one of the most dangerous players in baseball.

Baseball Reference has O’Neill declining across the board in almost every category. If Tyler O’Neill can stay healthy, he seems to be a safe bet to repeat the numbers from 2021, and maybe even build upon his 34 HRs, 26 2Bs, 2 3Bs, and 80 RBIs. A slight decline in his .286 average could be a wise regression projection.

Expect Tyler O’Neill to be an All-Star and dark horse MVP candidate for St. Louis.

3B Nolan Arenado

2022 Projection: BA: .264, OBP: .326, SLG: .487, OPS: .812, R: 75, 2B: 28, 3B: 2, HR: 28, RBI: 88, SB: 3, CS: 1, BB: 48, SO: 90

Verdict: Sell

This was a difficult decision, but I lean more toward sell with Nolan Arenado’s projections than I would buy. First thoughts would be his extra base hits, RBIs, even OBP/SLG/OPS seem low, but this is only year two of Nolan Arenado being removed from the “Coors Field effect”. It will be interesting to see if the transition to St. Louis has less of an impact on him, but I think overall, the numbers he put up in 2021 are probably about the new normal for Arenado.

I would expect Nolan to be over 30 2Bs and HRs again, close to 100 RBIs, and an increase in OBP, with throughout his career, has sat closer to .370.

RF Dylan Carlson

2022 Projection: BA: .259, OBP: .335, SLG: .429, OPS: .763, R: 68, H: 124, 2B: 27, 3B: 3, HR: 16, RBI: 61, SB: 3, CS: 1, BB: 49, SO: 130

Verdict: Buy

There’s a little bit of grip with the BA, OBP, and and XBH for Dylan Carlson, but overall this is a pretty good projection.

Carlson has the potential to breakout and really become an on base and doubles machine, but that may be more of a 2023 reality than this coming season. In order to capitalize on the higher average and high amount of XBHs, Dylan will need to improve on his .243 average against right handed pitching last year, and up his 13 XBHs against left handed pitching. Dylan is an elite on base hitter against left handed pitching a very good extra base hit threat against righties, but there will need to be more balance for him to achieve his potential.

CF Harrison Bader

2022 Projection: BA: .242, OBP: .321, SLG: .421, OPS: .742, R: 54, H: 93, 2B: 20, 3B: 2, HR: 15, RBI: 48, SB: 9, CS: 3, BB: 38, SO: 107

Verdict: Sell

Harrison Bader is the definition of a streaky hitter, and seems to be where some of the decline in production comes into play with this projection. After a pretty solid rookie campaign where he is .264 with 34 XBH, his following seasons went .205 and 27 XBH, .226 in the shortened 2020 season, and then .267 with 38 XBH even after only playing in 103 games.

I would expect Bader to find himself slashing about .255/.320/.460 with around 40 XBH, with the potential for those to rise if he can manage to play a near full season. Harrison is one of many Cardinals who seems to have found their identity over the last year, and I would expect him to be a solid contributor again.

SS Paul DeJong

2022 Projected: BA: .223, OBP: .304, SLG: .405, OPS: .709, R: 54, H: 88, 2B: 16, 3B: 1, HR: 18, RBI: 52, SB: 5, CS: 2, BB: 40, SO: 110

Verdict: Buy

After an abysmal 2021 campaign, the current Baseball Reference projection for Paul DeJong seems pretty on par.

Expect to see a very low average and on-base percentage from the Cardinal shortstop, and but he should still be able to put up some power numbers when he does make contact. If this is how he is trending early in the season though, do not be surprised to see Edmundo Sosa take over at shortstop, or even see Tommy Edman slide over and make way for Nolan Gorman at second base.

DH/OF Corey Dickerson

2022 Projection: BA: .264, OBP: .320, SLG: .428, OPS: .747, R: 51, H: 106, 2B: 22, 3B: 4, HR: 12, RBI: 48, SB: 5, CS: 3, BB: 31, SO: 88

Verdict: Buy

It is unknown at the moment who will be the Cardinals Opening Day DH, but after signing Corey Dickerson this last week, he very well may be penciled in there. (Lars Nootbaar and Juan Yepez are the other two most likely candidates).

Coming off a solid 2021 season with the Marlins and Blue Jays where he slashed .271/.326/.408 with 18 2Bs and 6 HRs in only 109 games, there is reason to believe the Cardinals new left handed bat can put up similar numbers in 2022.  Dickerson will likely see time in the outfield and DH depending on the day, but will need to produce in order to have consistent playing time with the number of guys vying for the DH and top bench bat stop.

C Yadier Molina

2022 Projected: BA: .245, OBP: .294, SLG: .364, OPS: .658, R: 46, H: 108, 2B: 19, 3B: 0, HR: 11, RBI: 58, SB: 4, CS: 0, BB: 26, SO: 83

Verdict: Buy

After really struggling at the plate in 2021, expect more of the same from Yadier Molina in 2022.

In 2021, Molina slashed .252/.297/.370 with 19 2Bs and 11 HRs in 121 games. In what will likely be his final major league season, it is likely he will appear in even less games, splitting time with catcher Andrew Knizner or potentially prospect Ivan Herrera. Molina will be the weakest link in the Cardinal order, but will hope to provide a boost to the team with his leadership, experience, and ability to guide a pitching staff.