Bigger bases could uniquely benefit the St. Louis Cardinals

Major League Baseball’s proposition to enlarge the bases could help the St. Louis Cardinals more than any other team.

Among the flurry of rule changes that Major League Baseball is attempting to implement, the proposition to enlarge the bases from 15 inches to 18 inches is one of the most interesting. And while I oppose some of the likely modifications (14-team playoffs, I’m looking at you), larger bases don’t seem like the worst thing in the world, especially for fans of the St. Louis Cardinals.

According to a Viva El Birdos article from last year, the Cardinals were the fastest team in baseball in sprint speed — if catchers were excluded. Yadier Molina singlehandedly dragged down the number so much that the Cardinals were ranked in the middle of the pack when catchers were included. But Molina isn’t there to wreak havoc on the bases, so let’s ignore him for now.

The Cardinals have quite a few speedsters, and their value will likely increase with larger bases. Close plays will go to the runners more often, and stolen bases will probably grow in number. Tyler O’Neill and Edmundo Sosa are the Cardinals’ fastest players according to Baseball Savant, averaging a sprint speed of 29.7 feet per second and tying for 13th best in the major leagues. Harrison Bader is only .2 feet per second behind them.

The Cardinals ranked sixth in stolen bases in the major leagues last year, and they were tops in the National League Central in that stat. Offensively, bigger bases are set to benefit the Cardinals more than any other team in the division.

But what about the other side? Can the Cardinals mitigate the effects of stolen bases against them? That’s where Molina comes back into the equation, and in a big way. An article before the 2021 season showed that since Molina’s debut in 2004, the Cardinals had allowed 847 stolen bases. The next-fewest? The Arizona Diamondbacks, allowing 1,250 steals. It’s not close.

Even though Molina’s arm may have dwindled in potency in the last few years, his reputation makes opposing teams hesitant to put on the green light. The big caveat is whether Molina will play in 2023. That will almost certainly hinge on the existence of a season this year. While I’m sure no baseball fan wants the season canceled, having Molina return for one more year in 2023 would likely put the kibosh on teams’ thoughts of thievery.

Even if there is a season or Molina doesn’t return, though, the Cardinals also excel defensively. Runners will reach bases more quickly, but the slick-fielding Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman and Paul Goldschmidt are among the best at not wasting any time in making plays, a skill that will be more critical than ever.

The Cardinals could have an outsized advantage with this rule change thanks to their speed on offense and the stealing nullification on defense. The defensive side will hinge on Molina and the presence of a 2022 season, which Molina stated will be his last. While a season this year would be optimal, the presence of larger bases is a silver lining here if Molina were to play in 2023.