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Evaluating the St. Louis Cardinals’ 3 options with Jack Flaherty

By Josh Jacobs |
Jack Flaherty (22) pitches during the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Jack Flaherty (22) pitches during the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
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The St. Louis Cardinals are going to have to make a major decision on Flaherty’s future over the next two seasons. What are the club’s options?

Since debuting in 2017, Jack Flaherty has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Although Flaherty has battled multiple injuries and a weird COVID year, he still ranks 19th in baseball since his debut in ERA (3.34) out of pitchers who have started at least 50 games during that stretch. Fans have seen flashes of dominance from the Cardinals ace, including arguably the greatest second half performance from a starter in history when he posted a 0.91 ERA.

With all of the promise and runs of success that Flaherty has brought to the Redbirds, there have been reasons to be concerned about his long-term future with the club. Since 2020, Flaherty has battled injuries that have clearly impacted his performance, and after a great start to 2021, he was once again bitten by the injury bug.

Cardinals fans would be quick to point out Flaherty’s apparent frustration with the organization over the last few seasons. Flaherty’s arbitration battle loomed heavy last offseason, and there have been interactions with reporters over the last few seasons that have some fans questioning his attitude.

Whether fair or not, there is growing speculation about the ace’s future with the club beyond the 2023 season. Let’s look at the three scenarios that could come into play over the next two years.

Jack Flaherty (22) pitches during the seventh inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Jack Flaherty (22) pitches during the seventh inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports /

Cardinals Extend Jack Flaherty

Even if you are a fan that has concerns about Flaherty, everyone has to acknowledge that the team is lacking top-end rotation pieces for the future. Adam Wainwright is in his last year with the club while Mikolas, Matz, and Hudson are likely middle rotation pieces at their best, and youngsters like Woodford, Reyes, and Hicks are likely not going to top a playoff rotation. Matthew Liberatore has a ton of potential, but most scouts view him at the moment as a great No. 3 starter or good No. 2 if he reaches his potential. Banking on any of these guys to be the club’s ace would be a major gamble.

Flaherty, when healthy, is far and away the best bet to lead the Cardinals rotation not only in 2022, but for the future of the club. The Cardinals have a healthy dose of position players in the minor league pipeline (Gorman, Walker, Herrera, and Yepez to name a few), so the club can afford to move resources, specifically salary, toward top end pitching.

Reports say that extension talks will likely wait until after the 2022 season. If Flaherty is able to bounce back and produce like an ace in 2022, the club would need to find a way to get Flaherty back to the negation table. To keep him off the market and locked up long term, you’d likely be looking at the 10 year, $210-$220 million deal range, but those are the kinds of prices you pay for top level pitching. Flaherty would have incentive to get locked in with his injury history.

The club has had major deals like Carpenter, Fowler, and Martinez come off the books, as well as the contracts of Wainwright and Molina after 2022. If the club is serious about long term contention, there is no room to pinch pennies here, assuming Flaherty is back to his ace form.

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – MAY 31: Jack Flaherty #22 of the St. Louis Cardinals at bat during the third inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on May 31, 2021 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – MAY 31: Jack Flaherty #22 of the St. Louis Cardinals at bat during the third inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on May 31, 2021 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images) /

Trade Jack Flaherty after the 2022 season

If Jack Flaherty bounces back in 2022 and the Cardinals do not believe they can re-sign him, it would be wise to begin to look at trades for the 26-year-old.

There has long been speculation that Flaherty would like to play in his hometown of LA, so a trade to the Dodgers, Angels, or even nearby San Diego could be at play if the club wants to deal him. Since the Cardinals would like to avoid strengthening an NL opponent like the Dodgers or Padres, clubs like the Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, Mariners, Tigers, Blue Jays, and White Sox could all line up to take a crack at the Cardinals ace as well.

There are a few arguments for dealing Flaherty next offseason. If the club believes his asking price is too high, replenishing the major league roster with talent or stocking up the farm system would help keep the team in playoff contention, as well as set them up for being players in both the trade and free agent market. If the club believes they are World Series contenders in 2023 and does not want to risk their chance at a run, holding onto him would make sense, but could leave the club empty handed in two years.

What kind of return could Flaherty bring in? Depending on his level of production in 2022, multiple top prospects would be within reach. Jack would be entering his age 27 season, and if a club believes they can lock him up, he should command a lot of value. It is tough to project what his value will be though before seeing him back in action, especially since he’ll be then going into his last year of club control.

ST. LOUIS, MO – JULY 24: Yadier Molina #4 and Jack Flaherty #22 of the St. Louis Cardinals walk toward the dugout prior to the Opening Day game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Busch Stadium on July 24, 2020 in St. Louis, Missouri. The 2020 season had been postponed since March due to the COVID-19 pandemic. (Photo by Scott Kane/Getty Images)The Cardinals let Jack Flaherty test free agency
ST. LOUIS, MO – JULY 24: Yadier Molina #4 and Jack Flaherty #22 of the St. Louis Cardinals walk toward the dugout prior to the Opening Day game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Busch Stadium on July 24, 2020 in St. Louis, Missouri. The 2020 season had been postponed since March due to the COVID-19 pandemic. (Photo by Scott Kane/Getty Images)The Cardinals let Jack Flaherty test free agency /

An extremely risky scenario but one that could be very real, the St. Louis Cardinals could allow Jack Flaherty to pitch these next two years in St. Louis and then bid with other clubs in free agency.

While in the past the club could have leaned on receiving a draft pick as compensation if Flaherty were to leave, the recent proposal from MLB during the lockout would see the elimination of draft compensation. While this is not official yet, now that it is on the table, the odds are extremely high. If Flaherty were to leave in free agency, the club would see their ace walk away for nothing.

This scenario very well could benefit the club though. If Flaherty falters in 2022 and/or 2023, the club would be able to give him a much more affordable contract, or let him leave without much of an issue. With the removal of draft pick compensation though, the club could easily become bidders themselves on other starters to replace Flaherty in 2023, such as Luis Castillo, Lucas Giolito, Tyler Glasnow, Aaron Nola, Julio Urias, Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani, and many more names in a stacked 2023 free agent class.

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