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FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections are favorable for St. Louis Cardinals and paint them as the favorite to win the National League Central.
About a month ago, I wrote that the St. Louis Cardinals were the favorites to win the National League Central. I received comments from rival teams fans calling my outlook “too optimistic,” saying that their pitching, both starters and relievers, was not good enough to win the division.
Fair enough. But it turns out I’m not alone in viewing the Cardinals as the favorites, as FanGraphs’ latest ZiPS projections have them winning the NL Central with an 89-73 record. The rest of the division goes as followed:
Milwaukee Brewers: 88-74
Cincinnati Reds: 80-82
Chicago Cubs: 76-86
Pittsburgh Pirates: 68-94
That feels about right. The Cardinals and Brewers are both very good and the class of the NL Central, with it being extremely likely that it’ll be a two-team race for most, if not all, of the 2022 season. They are both built differently – the Cardinals rely on a star-powered offense and the Brewers have arguably the best pitching staff in baseball – and it will be interesting to see how that dynamic plays out through the 162-game (we hope) season.
In 2021, the Brewers came out on top. Their pitching was dominant and their offense provided just enough firepower to win close games. But the Cardinals have every reason to be optimistic headed into 2022, as they now have Steven Matz in the rotation, another season of Nolan Arenado as he settles into St. Louis, and a manager in Oli Marmol who will utilize platoons and maximize matchups more frequently than his predecessor Mike Shildt.
Besides, the Cardinals are going to continue to add to the roster once the lockout ends, with upgrading the bullpen and adding starting pitching/offensive depth all on the teams radar. There is an outside chance that the Brewers make a splash signing (Nelson Cruz?) so nothing can be ruled out.
But both these teams will be evenly matched, but in different ways. I believe the Cardinals come out on top and it turns out that I’m not alone.