Ranking the 10 best contracts in recent St. Louis Cardinals history

The St. Louis Cardinals have received some incredible value from recent free agency signings and extensions. But who were the top 10 since 2013?

Recently, I took a look at some of the worst contracts in recent St. Louis Cardinals history, opening old wounds for the Redbird faithful while creating quite the stir of who should have made that list. In an attempt to take a glass half-full approach this time, we will look at some of the best contracts the Cardinals have handed out since 2013.

This list will only include free agency signings and contract extensions, not arbitration, contract renewals, or contracts traded for. The contract also must have been signed in 2013 or later, so if the deal began before then, it did not count toward the list.

First, some self-critique. On the worst contracts list, it was mentioned that Matt Carpenter just barely missed the list due to past performance on his deal. That was an oversight on my part, not taking into account the two-year extension tacked on to the end of his original extension. Since that was a new deal, his last contract with the Cardinals should have made the top five.

In an effort to create this list objectively, I have used a tool FanGraphs that measures player value in comparison to their WAR. FanGraphs defines the “Dollars” stat as “WAR converted to a dollar scale based on what a player would make in free agency” (Ex. Nolan Arenado, scroll down to the final category called “value” and see dollars stat). This stat gives a market value to each player, allowing you to compare their actual pay to what FanGraphs would project their market value to be.

Now, this isn’t a perfect tool, but provides a more objective approach to measuring how a player performed compared to their contract value. For this list, I calculated the total “Dollars” value over their contract, subtracted their actual pay, and found how much the player played “over” their contract value (contract values used from Spotrac).

Going back to Nolan Arenado as the example, Arenado’s “Dollars” value in 2021 was $32.1 million, while his actual payroll value was $35 millions (although the Cardinals did not pay a significant amount of that deal thanks to the Rockies sending money over). But compared to payroll value, he would have been worth $2.9 million less than his contract for that year. 

Since this article deals with the positive value over an entire deal, one-year contracts may rank lower on the list, when in reality their contract was an absolute steal. Since long-term deals carry much more risk, I wanted to reward the team for long term deals that panned out well, rather than the one-year fliers. There is no perfect way to measure that kind of value, but this is the method we will use.

Now, onto some awesome contracts.

No. 10: Carlos Martinez (2017-2021)

Value: +$11.2 million

This list begins with a controversial name, but when looking at players that performed the highest over their contract values, Carlos cracks the top 10.

At the beginning of his five-year, $51 million deal in 2017, Martinez was named an All-Star, going 12-11 with an ERA of 3.64 over 205 innings of work. Across the length of the deal, he threw 474.1 innings with record of 28-31, 29 saves, and an ERA of 4.17.

2017 and 2018 were his last two years as the promising, top of the rotation kind of starter, but following an injury that ended his career year (ERA of 3.11 in 118 innings), Martinez became a solid closer for the club in 2019. Unfortunately, he would only throw 102 innings across 2020-2021 with an ERA of 6.95, bringing what could have been a stellar career to floating around as a free agent, at the moment.

The deal was originally set to go through 2023, but St. Louis wisely included a $500,000 buy out that saved the value of the contract. Without that, he more than likely would have missed this list after the next few seasons.

No. 9: Pat Neshek (2014)

Value: +$13.9 million

Signed to a one-year, $1 million dollar flier right before Spring Training, Pat Neshek impressively outplayed his contract by almost $14 million, a difficult task for a reliver based on the WAR stat.

Neshek threw 67.1 innings with an ERA of 1.87, WHIP of 0.79, and being named to the All-Star team. Neshek was a consistent force in a young bullpen headlined by Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez, Seth Maness, and Tyler Lyons, making him a big reason the club won the NL Central and made it to the NLCS.

Neshek is an excellent example of a low-risk, high-reward signing that paid maximum dividends. Neshek would go on to play for the Astros and Phillies, and received nice pay days due to this impressive season he had put together.

#8 Kwang Hyun Kim (2020-2021)

Value: +$14 million

Coming over from South Korea on a two-year, $8 million deal prior to the 2021 season, Kim was an instant success for the club in 2020. During the shortened season, he put up an ERA of 1.62 in 39 innings, seeing him bounce between starter and high leverage reliever.

Kim continued his success across 106 innings during 2021, sporting an ERA of 3.46 while once again bouncing between the rotation and bullpen due to injuries. Based on how Kim would pitch when he was completely healthy, there is a chance he could have far surpassed his contract value had he not been bitten by the injury bug, but he still managed to be a very successful international signing.

No. 7: Seung-hwan Oh (2016-2017)

Value: +$15.6 million

Another pitcher from South Korea, “Final Boss” signed a 2 year, $5 million deal with the Cardinals and became an instant success out of the bullpen.

During 2016, Oh had a record of 6-3 while converting 19 save opportunities, 14 holds, and maintaining an ERA of 1.92. This dominate debut for the Cardinals would falter in his second season, as his 20 saves were accompanied by an ERA of 4.10.

Final Boss did give the Cardinals plenty of value for a player only making $2.5 million each season. Oh would bounce back in 2018 with the Blue Jays and Rockies, but has not pitched in a big league game since 2019.

No. 6: Paul Goldschmidt (2020-current)

Value: +$18.8 million

After coming over to St. Louis via trade prior to the 2019 season, Goldschmidt became entrenched as the Cardinals first baseman and much needed middle of the order bat. He signed a five-year extension with the club worth $130 million, and has so far proved to be even more valuable than his yearly pay.

Across the first two years of his extension, Goldy has slashed .296/.378/.503 with 37 home runs, 120 RBI, and playing Gold Glove defense at first. Had the 2020 season not been cut short, Goldy may have played at an even higher value than the $18.8 million that FanGraphs awarded him.

There was little bits of chatter following the 2019 season that Goldschmidt may have declined from his production with the Diamondbacks. Although his numbers have dipped slightly, a strong 2021 has put Goldschmidt right back in the conversation for top 3 first basemen in the game today.

If Goldy continues to put up this level of play, he will easily climb this list and prove that both of his major extensions in his career were bargains.

No. 5: Adam Wainwright (2021)

Value: +$22.2 million

Following an up and down 2019 that saw Wainwright turn in a strong second half performance, Wainwright came back to the club on a one-year, $8 million deal for what was supposed to be his last season with the Cardinals.

Wainwright proceeded to turn into one of the best storylines of 2021, finishing 7th in Cy Young and 20th in MVP voting at age 40. Wainwright was the anchor in a rotation devastated by injuries, posting an ERA of 3.05 over 206.1 innings with a record of 17-7. Waino’s ability to eat innings at a high level and turn in gems was one of the major reasons the club was able to stay afloat and make a late playoff push.

This was one of the best one year values that a club could hope for, especially for someone who turned 40 years old in August. If Waino can be anything close to that in 2022, he’ll prove to be another great investment.

No. 4: Miles Mikolas (2018-2019)

Value: +$37.8 million

Although Mikolas made the list of worst contracts in recent Cardinal history with his extension for the 2020-2023 seasons, his initial contract when coming back to the U.S. from Japan is the best free agent signing in terms of value since 2013.

Signed to a two-year, $15.5 million year, Mikolas began his Cardinals tenure with an All-Star season that saw him finish sixth in Cy Young voting with a record of 18-4 and ERA of 2.83 across 200.2 innings, adding up to a market value of $34 million for 2018 alone. 2019 was not as kind to Mikolas, but even so, he posted a “dollars” value of $19.3 million, out playing his deal once again.

Across the length of the deal, Mikolas went 27-18 with an ERA of 3.46 while throwing 384.2 innings. One can make a strong case that some of his lower K/9 numbers and very high xFIP would have made the front office hesitate at awarding a second deal, but there is no denying how valuable Mikolas was on his $7.75 million annual salary.

No. 2 Yadier Molina (2013-2018)

Value: +$94.3 million

After finishing 4th in MVP voting in 2012, Yadi was handed a five-year, $75 million extension for his age 30-35 seasons. Handing out a contract that big to a catcher after the age of 29 is risky business, but the deal paid major dividends, and somehow was a massive underpay by the club.

In 2013 alone, Molina was worth $57.6 million. He finished the year slashing .319/.359/.477 with 12 home runs, 44 doubles, and 88 RBIs while collecting another Gold Glove and All-Star appearance, collecting his only Silver Slugger, and finishing 3rd in the MVP voting. Yadi’s production was a huge reason that the club was able to win the NL pennant before falling to the Boston Red Sox in the World Series.

Across the entire length of the deal, Molina slashed .286/.332/.421 with 69 home runs, 173 doubles, 393 RBIs while adding an additional four All-Star appearances and three Gold Gloves. One could argue that he was worth even more across that stretch, as his leadership and ability to lead a pitching staff cannot be measured by WAR or any other advanced stat. There is a reason Molina will go down as one of the best players to ever wear a Cardinal uniform, and if this list was not measured by the dollar stat, he probably would have taken the number one spot.

No. 1: Matt Carpenter (2014-2019)

Value: +$118.3 million

Despite there being a strong argument that Carpenter’s extension from 2020-2021 could be the worst contract in recent Cardinal history, his six-year, $52 million dollar extension from 2014 to 2019 was one of the best contracts in baseball.

Over the length of the deal, Carpenter put up a line of .258/.370/.460 with 131 home runs, 206 doubles, 407 RBI and 542 runs scored while finishing top 12 in MVP voting twice and adding on two All-Star appearances in separate seasons from his MVP surges.

His most famous run over the course of the deal was his 2018 season. On May 15th, Carpenter was hitting just .140 with three home runs and 13 RBIs, but after teammate Adam Wainwright got Carpenter into gardening and Matt began to make his special salsa, Carpenter went on an absolute tear. Carpenter would finish the year batting .257/.374/.523 with 36 home runs, 42 doubles, and 81 RBIs while finishing 9th in MVP voting.

Although this was Carpenter’s last great Cardinal season, it capped off an incredible run from a player that faced incredible adversity before cracking the big league roster in 2011. The fact that he played $118 million over his contract value during that stretch is insane. After a few years away from the club, fans will remember Carp more for his peak seasons, rather than the disappointing end to his time in St. Louis.

Bonus: If you want an emotional goodbye from Matt, check out this incredible open letter to St. Louis that he wrote in the Players Tribune.