Ranking the Ceilings of St. Louis Cardinals Outfielders

No. 3 Harrison Bader

The debate begins here, but even so, most Cardinals fans would probably have Bader finishing as the bronze medalist in this outfield. Coming into the 2021 season, everyone already knew about the elite defense that Bader boasted as well as game changing speed that the club needed. Before debuting in 2017, Bader, 27, had been on of the clubs Top 10 prospects, and the only question surrounding his ceiling was whether the bat would ever catch up.

In his first full season in 2018, Bader was a slightly above league average hitter, posting .264/.334/.422 splits with a 106 OPS. His production dipped in 2019, as he fell to a .205/.314/.366 hitter with an OPS+ of 80. The shortened 2020 season was a mixed bag for Bader, as he graded out as a pretty above average hitter with a 114 OPS+ due to more consistent power, but his on-base ability was still a red flag.

The 2021 season was a huge year for Bader in terms of his development, but still reflected many of the question marks fans should have going forward. Bader was able to pair his sneaky power with an improvement in his on-base ability, moving to .267/.324/.460 splits with a 116 OPS+ and winning his first career Gold Glove. In only 103 games, Bader was able to put up 38 extra-base hits to give life to the bottom of the Cardinals line up.

The main area of concern with Bader’s bat is his inconsistency. With his righty/lefty splits, Bader had been known to rake off left handed pitching and struggle mightily with right handers before the 2021 season. This last year though, his left handed mashing came down to earth and he was actually a significantly better hitter against right handed pitching.

Bader is also an extremely streaky hitter. His OPS month to month went as follows – June: .500; July: .724; August: 1.021; September and October: .980. When Bader is hot, he is hot.But Harry is also prone to stretches where he strikes out a ton and does not get on base, negating a ton of his value and raising the blood pressure of Cardinal fans.

Baseball Reference has Bader coming back down to earth a little bit in their 2022 projections, posting .242/.321/.421 splits with 37 extra base hits in only 385 plate appearances. In my opinion, I think Cardinals fans can expect around .250/.330/.440 splits for him this coming year, and see him somewhere in the range of 20 homers and 25 doubles, while repeating his Gold Glove caliber defense and speed on the base paths.

Bader proved he is one of the better center fielders in all of baseball last year, and 2022 could be the year he cements himself as one of the top, boasting good power with elite speed and defensive abilities. His ceiling is only held down by his lack of consistency, so if he finds that, he could really soar this coming year.