Ranking the Ceilings of St. Louis Cardinals Outfielders

The Cardinals currently have an outfield full of exciting, young talent. Which of their promising outfielders has the highest ceiling?

Cardinals Twitter can be a place of great debate all year round. From team performance, to player acquisitions, and everything in between, fans get very passionate about their thoughts on how the ballclub is doing. One of the most interesting debates you’ll see in this realm is when the fanbase begins to rank the potential of various Cardinals.

@RedbirdReject sparked a fun debate when he asked fans who had the highest ceiling (potential/talent) in the St. Louis outfield between Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, Harrison Bader, or Lars Nootbaar. This quickly sparked an interesting back and forth among fans, and it is worth taking a look at the potential of this quartet.

It is easy to forget that even as recent as the start of the 2021 season, there were major question marks surrounding the Cardinals outfield. The team had been waiting for these, as well as other former prospects, to breakout and take control of the long term future of the outfield. Before the season, it was no sure thing that this outfield would be the future of the team.

The 2021 season proved to be a huge milestone for all four Cardinal outfielders, and now the club has arguably one of, if not the best, outfield unit in the game. But, which of these outfielders has the highest ceiling? Here is how is how I would rank these guys moving forward.

No. 3 Harrison Bader

The debate begins here, but even so, most Cardinals fans would probably have Bader finishing as the bronze medalist in this outfield. Coming into the 2021 season, everyone already knew about the elite defense that Bader boasted as well as game changing speed that the club needed. Before debuting in 2017, Bader, 27, had been on of the clubs Top 10 prospects, and the only question surrounding his ceiling was whether the bat would ever catch up.

In his first full season in 2018, Bader was a slightly above league average hitter, posting .264/.334/.422 splits with a 106 OPS. His production dipped in 2019, as he fell to a .205/.314/.366 hitter with an OPS+ of 80. The shortened 2020 season was a mixed bag for Bader, as he graded out as a pretty above average hitter with a 114 OPS+ due to more consistent power, but his on-base ability was still a red flag.

The 2021 season was a huge year for Bader in terms of his development, but still reflected many of the question marks fans should have going forward. Bader was able to pair his sneaky power with an improvement in his on-base ability, moving to .267/.324/.460 splits with a 116 OPS+ and winning his first career Gold Glove. In only 103 games, Bader was able to put up 38 extra-base hits to give life to the bottom of the Cardinals line up.

The main area of concern with Bader’s bat is his inconsistency. With his righty/lefty splits, Bader had been known to rake off left handed pitching and struggle mightily with right handers before the 2021 season. This last year though, his left handed mashing came down to earth and he was actually a significantly better hitter against right handed pitching.

Bader is also an extremely streaky hitter. His OPS month to month went as follows – June: .500; July: .724; August: 1.021; September and October: .980. When Bader is hot, he is hot.But Harry is also prone to stretches where he strikes out a ton and does not get on base, negating a ton of his value and raising the blood pressure of Cardinal fans.

Baseball Reference has Bader coming back down to earth a little bit in their 2022 projections, posting .242/.321/.421 splits with 37 extra base hits in only 385 plate appearances. In my opinion, I think Cardinals fans can expect around .250/.330/.440 splits for him this coming year, and see him somewhere in the range of 20 homers and 25 doubles, while repeating his Gold Glove caliber defense and speed on the base paths.

Bader proved he is one of the better center fielders in all of baseball last year, and 2022 could be the year he cements himself as one of the top, boasting good power with elite speed and defensive abilities. His ceiling is only held down by his lack of consistency, so if he finds that, he could really soar this coming year.

No. 2: Dylan Carlson

The real debate lands at the No. 1 and No. 2 spots, but in my opinion, when looking at ceilings and potential of players, Dylan is a strong silver medalist in the Cardinal outfield. Formerly the Cardinals top prospect, Carlson bounced back from a shaky 2020 season to put together a strong rookie campaign in 2021.

Finishing 3rd in the NL ROY voting in 2021, the switch-hitting 23-year-old put up .266/.343/.437 splits with a 117 OPS+, finishing with 53 extra-base hits and 65 RBIs while fluctuating throughout the batting order. He showed off a very nice glove as well, providing well above league average defense that could develop into a plus tool.

The projections for Carlson have always been lofty, and his first full season backed up a lot of that hype. Carlson boasts good power from the left side of the plate with okay on base skills, and is an elite on base guy from the right side of the plate against left handed pitching, putting up .341/.394/528 splits on left handers this year.

If Carlson can continue to rake against left handed pitching and improve his on-base skills against right-handers, he could easily be a .300/.380/.480 type of hitter who is a doubles machine and hits 20-30 home runs a year. With the rookie year he had, and the kind of tools that were seen in him the last few years, Carlson has the highest floor out of the young outfielders. He could develop into a perennial All-Star caliber player with elite on-base skills and power that can transform the lineup. His defense puts him in an even higher class.

Theoretically, if he capitalizes on all of his tools, Carlson could be a top player in all of baseball, but his ceiling is much more likely a Top 30 type of player that year in and year out puts up consistent, All-Star level production from both sides of the plate. Sign me up for that.

No. 1 Tyler O’Neill

After finishing 8th in the NL MVP voting and repeating as a Gold Glove winner in his first full (normal) season as the Cardinals left fielder, Tyler O’Neill proved to have an MVP-caliber ceiling for this Cardinals outfield.

After acquiring O’Neill in the Marco Gonzales trade in 2017, he has been the promising five tool player who Cardinals fans were waiting to see if he would put it all together. He boasts plus power, speed, and defensive abilities, but struggled to see consistent playing time due to a high strikeout rate and not enough use of that power.

In 2020, O’Neill slashed .173/.261/.360 across 50 games with 12 extra base hits while bringing in his first career Gold Glove. The season prior in 60 games, he slashed .262/.311/.411 with 11 extra-base hits. Going into 2021, he knew he needed to make a change to his approach at the plate, and those changes paid off big time.

In 2021, he slashed .286/.352/.560 with and 150 OPS+ and 52 extra-base hits and 80 RBI across 537 plate appearances while swiping 15 bags and maintaining the Gold Glove defense. He broke out as an elite level talent and middle of the order monster.

When talking to Brendan Schaeffer of KMOV4 back in September, Adam Wainwright had this to say about O’Neill’s development,

“We knew he was going to be good,” Wainwright said. “The front office has always said that they think this guy’s going to be the next 40/40 guy. And just being honest, I didn’t know if that was going to happen. There was a lot of swing-and-miss in his game. He had to change some of his swing patterns and some of his approach at the plate.

“What I see out of him now is a guy who is in the film room studying. He’s got a great idea of what the pitcher is trying to do. He’s got a great idea of what he’s trying to accomplish. He’s got a good approach. He knows his strengths. Man, that’s what’s called growing up in a clubhouse, right there. Growing up as a complete player. And that’s exactly what he is—a complete player.”

Staying healthy may be the biggest obstacle for O’Neill to reach his star potential. The Cardinals left fielder has been bitten by the injury bug on a few occasions, but has worked to slim down his massive build in recent years to prevent from some of those nagging injuries. 

If O’Neill remains committed to refining his approach at the plate, we could be looking at a guy who could hit .270/.360/.570 with 40+ home runs per year. While 40 steals may be a bit much for a guy who hits in the middle of the order and needs to remain healthy, 20-30 bags a year could be within reach. Pair all of that with the elite defense he provides, and it is no wonder he has the highest ceiling in this Cardinals outfield.

Final Assessment

The Cardinals are in a fantastic spot with their young outfielders moving forward. O’Neill and Carlson both boast star potential, with O’Neill’s ceiling being that of an MVP and Carlson’s floor being extremely high. Bader has taken huge strides in his development, and if he can continue to do so, or maintain his current level of play, he is easily the best No. 3 outfielder in baseball. Nootbaar gives the club a dependable No. 4 outfielder when rest is needed for the big three or the injury bug hits, and guys like Juan Yepez, Alec Burleson, and Joshua Baez could fight for time in the near future as well.

Who do you think has the highest ceiling out of the current Cardinal outfielders? How would you rank them? Who has the highest floor out of the bunch? We’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments.