Ranking the St. Louis Cardinals players with the most value beyond 2022

The St. Louis Cardinals are set to compete this year, but also for years in the future. Who on the roster has the most future value?

A year ago, amidst a quiet offseason from the St. Louis Cardinals, I ranked the players on the 40-man roster in terms of future value. Of course, three weeks later the front office shook up those rankings entirely and traded for Nolan Arenado. Despite that setback (or maybe because of it?) I thought that while baseball takes some time off, it would be an interesting exercise to try the rankings again.

You can look at last year’s rankings here. Again, it was before the Arenado trade, so don’t get mad at me. Of the 40 players ranked a year ago, only 27 remain in the organization– and two of them were removed from the 40-man roster.

This year’s rankings include the 36 members of the Cardinals’ 40-man roster, as well as three top prospects expected to debut at some point in 2022. It’s a balanced mix of veterans and youngsters, proven talent and untapped potential, players looking to rebound and players looking to build upon recent success. Players have more defined roles than a year ago, too, and that made the rankings a little smoother.

This exercise showed where the Cardinals have depth – future Cardinals like Jordan Walker, Mason Wynn, and Josh Baez will all fit in further down the line – and where the Cardinals need to acquire more talent.

A quick shoutout to Justin Williams (ranked 33 last year), Seth Elledge (31 last year), Ljay Newsome and Andersen Tejeda. They are the four players in the organization with major-league experience who are not on the 40-man roster.

Now, without further ado, here are the official 2022 St. Louis Cardinals future value rankings. Subject for plenty of debate, as always.

39-29

None of these first seven were with the St. Louis Cardinals last season. As such, they have no ranking to compare to from last year.

39. Ali Sanchez
38. Brandon Waddell
37. T.J. Zeuch
36. Jake Walsh
35. Johan Quezada
34. Freddy Pacheco

The six of these guys are talented, but unlikely to make large contributions to the team. The one key in their favor is that they are all under contract for at least one additional season, so there is plenty of time to advance up this list. The only question is if they’ll have an opportunity to do so.

33. T.J. McFarland

How do you rank a 33-year-old lefty pitching on a one-year deal? If McFarland continues to be the double-play machine that he was last season, then maybe you keep him around for another season and his future value goes up. I’m rooting for T.J., and he’s a key part of this year’s pen. Beyond 2022, however, it gets a little murky.

32. Junior Fernandez
31. Angel Rondon
30. Jake Woodford
29. Johan Oviedo

These four players are in quite a delicate spot. All of them are talented pitchers with the ability to both start and come out of the bullpen. Each one is highly regarded by the Cardinals. The problem is that none has a clear path to a role as a consistent contributor in the big leagues.

Woodford is penciled in right now as the spot starter in case of a last minute injury. We’ve seen Oviedo have some success last season. Rondon is still only 24 years old. And Fernandez was lights out last year in Memphis.

The St. Louis Cardinals would benefit greatly from any of these four pitchers taking a big step forward in 2022. If not, there is plenty of depth both ahead and behind them.

Something to prove

We are move from “exciting, young, mysterious futures” to a complicated trio of veterans. Each worthy of an individual breakdown, they are at a crossroads in their careers as St. Louis Cardinals.

22. Andrew Knizner

We’ll start with Andrew Knizner. Once the heir apparent to Yadier Molina, Knizner has been passed by Ivan Herrera in the future starting Cardinals catcher hierarchy. He has done a fine job as Molina’s backup, but his ceiling is still undefined. Still, at only 26 years old, there is still a long major-league career ahead for Andrew Knizner, whether it’s with the Cardinals or somewhere else.

I expect him to receive more playing time this season as the Cardinals evaluate life after Molina, so we will see what he is able to do with a few more at-bats. It’s clear the Cardinals think highly enough of Knizner that they won’t bring in anyone else to be Yadi’s last backup. However, is Knizner good enough to be handed the starting job next season? We’ll find out in 2022.

21. Miles Mikolas

After his first season with the Cardinals in 2018, signing Miles Mikolas to a four-year $68 million deal seemed like a good decision for both sides. After an injury-plagued 2020, his future is much more murky.

In 2021, Mikolas pitched 44.2 innings and showed signs that he was closer to his 2018 season than the trying times that had come afterwards. With two years remaining on his contract, the Cardinals are hoping to get as much as they can out of the 33 year-old. Take a look at the rest of this list, though. There’s plenty of starting pitching depth if he falters.

20. Paul DeJong

Last in this section is Paul DeJong. In the previous version of this list, DeJong was ranked fifth. Here’s what I wrote:

I have to remind myself that Paul DeJong is only 27 years old. The versatile shortstop is entering his fifth season in the big leagues. He struggled last year at the plate and in the field, but there has to be some confidence in the organization that the former All-Star can return to form. Between this season and next, a lot of veterans will be leaving St. Louis. Paul DeJong is going to be a very important leader.

Well, if you’re frustrated with DeJong, it’s because we’re in the same position as last year, but potentially even worse. There’s two more years on DeJong’s contract before a team option kicks in. If DeJong rediscovers his stroke at the plate, he’ll once again be at the top of this list. The front office believes in him, but the pressure is on to prove that he is still the shortstop of the future and an integral part of  the St. Louis Cardinals.

Talented arms and top prospects

19. Kodi Whitley
18. Ryan Helsley
17. Genesis Cabrera
16. Giovanny Gallegos
15. Alex Reyes
14. Jordan Hicks

Reyes, Hicks, and Gallegos could be put in any order. And the same goes for Cabrera, Helsley, and Whitley. But the modern game relies on a strong bullpen, and these six make up the late inning backbone for the Cardinals.

However, questions remain with each player. Helsley will be returning from a season-ending injury. Whitley has only pitched 30 career innings. Cabrera has struggled at times with consistency. Gallegos is now 30 years old. Hicks and Reyes have the least defined roles of maybe any pitcher of their talent in all of baseball.

The Cardinals may still add to their bullpen with a free agent acquisition this offseason. Reyes and/or Hicks could move to the rotation. But as we learned during the difficult middle stretch of the 2021 season, there is no undervaluing pitching.

13. Zack Thompson***
12. Matthew Liberatore***
11. Ivan Herrera
10. Nolan Gorman***

Thompson, Liberatore, and Gorman are not yet on the 40-man roster. But for the second year in a row, these four talented minor leaguers occupy spots 10-13. I said it best a year ago when I did this exercise, so I’ll just copy the explanation again:

I put these prospects up here because this is a list about potential… if the Cardinals are to be a successful team in the 2020s, they need their top prospects to deliver.

Gorman and Liberatore look like they will arrive in St. Louis sometime in 2022, as both prospects had strong showings in Memphis in 2021. Thompson struggled a bit last season, but the 19th overall pick from the 2019 draft is still a highly talented pitcher. And Herrera is waiting in the wings as the catcher of the future, whether he makes his debut this season or next.

Each of these prospects are knocking on the door of the big leagues, and Cardinal fans are right to be excited about their potential. However, this list is about future value. Any contributions these four make to the 2022 team are a bonus.

Key Pieces

Just missing the top four, these five are going to be counted on if the Cardinals are going to make playoff run. A fairly young group, they each have the potential to get better and break into the final grouping.

9. Dakota Hudson

Dakota Hudson came back from Tommy John surgery and pitched a few valuable innings for the Cardinals in 2021, a welcome sign as the Cardinals built their rotation this offseason. Hudson pitches to contact, which makes him a perfect fit for the Cardinals strong defense. Still only 27, he is a key part of the Cardinals rotation, both this year and for the foreseeable future.

8. Tommy Edman

Now a Gold Glove winner, Edman has shown he is more than just a utility man. Whether he bats leadoff or eighth, plays second base or outfield, Tommy Edman will be counted on by the St. Louis Cardinals.

7. Steven Matz

Anytime you sign someone to a four-year, $44 million deal, they immediately become an integral part of your ballclub. Matz has struggled with consistency and staying healthy over the course of his professional career, but if he can steady the middle of the St. Louis rotation for the next four years, he will be worth the price.

6. Harrison Bader

After a difficult, injury-filled start to the season, Harrison Bader came into his own in 2021. Bader remained the elite defender in center field that he has always been, but this time, he was consistent at the plate. There are few things more valuable to a ballclub than a high-level center fielder, and Bader has all the tools to be one.

5. Tyler O’Neill

After frustrating many Cardinals fans with a lack of consistent production, O’Neill became the powerful bat they relied on for most of 2021. He will look to improve on his outstanding season next year. An unsettled spot since the Matt Holliday years, left field at Busch Stadium belongs to Tyler O’Neill.

The Building Blocks

Finally, here are your core four. These are the guys going for MVPs and Cy Youngs, leading the team into battle each night. It’s a pretty solid group to build around.

4. Paul Goldschmidt

At 34, there’s an argument to be made for Paul Goldschmidt to be lower on this list. However, I think we should all stop doubting him. After a monstrous second half of 2021, he once again showed why he is one of the best in the league at first base.

3. Dylan Carlson

At times overlooked, Dylan Carlson had a pretty impressive rookie season. His one weakness last season was defense, and that will only get better with more playing time. Despite what many of you are thinking right now, the former top prospect in the St. Louis organization has earned this third spot in the rankings. I’ll admit he will need to keep improving in order to keep it.

2. Jack Flaherty

The Cardinals struggled mightily without their ace, with few starters in the big leagues capable of matching Flaherty’s competitive drive and electrifying stuff on the mound. A full season of dominance is the next step for Flaherty as he begins his sixth year in St. Louis. The front office should do anything they can to lock him into a long-term deal, too.

1. Nolan Arenado

Who else would occupy this top spot? Nolan Arenado is one of the best baseball players alive. It feels silly to try to describe his value to the St. Louis Cardinals. Hopefully the other players on this list can support Nolan enough to go on a long playoff run.

And there you have it! Your St. Louis Cardinal future value rankings. Barring, of course, any other offseason moves once we resume regular baseball activity. One or two additions, and this becomes a pretty deep ball club.