3 blueprints for the St. Louis Cardinals’ offseason

When the lockout ends later this offseason, what route will the Cardinals front office go to improve the team in 2022 and beyond?

Major League Baseball began its inevitable lockout on Dec 1. Much to the surprise of fans, many of the league’s top free agents found new homes before the work stoppage. But with big names like Carlos Correa, Trevor Story and Freddie Freeman still available, and many of the top trade targets still available, Cardinals fans will spend this lockout wondering and dreaming about the moves the team may make.

Having already re-signed TJ McFarland, bringing in lefty Steven Matz to fill out the rotation and making some calculated minor-league depth signings, the team has been active so far this offseason.

Many Cardinals fans came into the offseason with hopes of signing Trevor Story, Marcus Stroman or Max Scherzer, so the moves thus far may feel mildly disappointing. If you were to look at this ballclub heading into the 2022 season, there does not appear to be a ton of improvement for their World Series odds.

Has St. Louis made moves to make a run at the World Series in 2022? Yes. Has the club pushed all of their chips into the center though? No. What has made this organization so great over its history, and notably over the last few decades, has been its ability to be opportunistic with near term moves, while maintaining a healthy long-term future for the team.

Whenever the lockout ends, there are three different directions president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and general manager Mike Girsch could take this team in. Each direction impacts St. Louis not only in 2022, but in future seasons as well.

Here are the three different ways the remainder of the 2022 offseason could play out…

The Cardinals go all-in on the 202 season

While Cardinals fans tend to cry out that the club does not make big moves, the organization has taken some big swings over the years. Going into 2015, the team flipped three high upside arms for outfielder Jason Heyward. Before the 2019 season, the club flipped more young talent for perennial All-Star Paul Goldschmidt. And even after a pandemic shorted season, the Cardinals pulled of a heist and acquired one of this generations best third basemen in Nolan Arenado.

Looking at free agency, the Cardinals were major bidders on Heyward, David Price and Albert Pujols, but have not allowed themselves to get into long-term albatross deals. St. Louis is not afraid to make a big move when the price is right, which could be the case coming out of the lockout.

Cardinals fans have long pointed out that this is the year for St. Louis to go big in free agency, having a hole at shortstop during a historic class with the likes of Carlos Correa and Trevor Story still available. Potential DH sluggers Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, and Nelson Cruz remain on the market. Big arms like Carlos Rodon, Kenley Jansen, and Clayton Kershaw could bolster the pitching even more.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch confirmed a few weeks back that the Cardinals expected a payroll increase heading into the 2022 season. Even with taking on more of Arenado’s contract and the four-year, $44 million dollar deal handed to Matz, there is still money available to spend with multiple big deals coming off of the books.

In this scenario, St. Louis would likely grab themselves one more big bat and/or an elite bullpen piece to solidify them as the NL Central favorites and a World Series contender. Let’s say the team signs Trevor Story for six years, $135 million and Kenley Jansen for about two years, $25 million. The team would add about $45 million dollars between Matz, Story, and Jansen, and could shed about 6 million by moving on from Paul DeJong to another shortstop needy team. This would leave them with an Opening Day Roster similar to this…

Lineup: RF Dylan Carlson,1B Paul Goldschmidt, LF Tyler O’Neill, 3B Nolan Arenado, SS Trevor Story, C Yadier Molina,, DH Nolan Gorman/Juan Yepez, 2B Tommy Edman, CF Harrison Bader.

Bench: Gorman/Yepez, Edmundo Sosa, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Andrew Knizner.

Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Steven Matz, Miles Mikolas.

Bullpen: RHP Ryan Helsley, RHP Jake Woodford, RHP Alex Reyes, TJ McFarland, LHP Genesis Caberera, RHP Jordan Hicks, RHP Giovanni Gallegos, RHP Kenley Jansen.

On paper, this team would be the clear-cut favorites to win the NL Central and would be strong contenders with the Dodgers, Padres, Braves, and Mets to win the NL Pennant. All three of the major issues from the club last year are addressed in this scenario – consistency within the rotation, middle of the lineup protection for O’Neill-Goldschmidt-Arenado and stability at the back of the bullpen.

The team would be in prime position to make a run, and any improvements from players like Carlson, O’Neill, or Edman, breakouts from the likes of Gorman, Yepez, or Matthew Liberatore, or even improvement from Nolan Arenado who had slight down year at the plate would propel this team to even higher levels. While this is the least likely of the three routes the team could to this offseason, it is realistic and exciting enough to note the potential of bigger moves.

The Cardinals stand pat

This is the scenario that would frustrate most fans, but is more realistic than the splashy moves and fits within their short- and long-term visions Over the last few years, fans have grown frustrated with the team for letting the likes of Luke Voit, Adolis Garcia, Randy Arozarena, Carson Kelly, Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, and others find success on other clubs before really getting a shot in St. Louis.

In order for Mozeliak to make up for past sins and not let another one get away, the team must have at-bats and innings available to guys like Sosa, Nootbaar, Gorman, Yepez, Donavon, Jordan Walker, Alec Burelson Liberatore, Zack Thompson, and others.

While this is the least exciting scenario, there seems to be a medium risk-high reward potential laid out here. For starters, the team has very few holes left to plug, while high production players both on in the lineup and on the pitching staff already.

Banking on contributions from the major league ready farm guys, and the continued development of young stars already on the club, is not pie in the sky optimism. Could the team be in a similar spot as they were at the end of 2021? For sure. But it also leaves them room to see what they have in all of this young talent and attack the needs this club will have in future off-seasons with the money they chose not to spend this off-season.

This scenario would also allow the club to extend some of those high-profile players that have emerged to deals that will allow them to hold onto more of their core down the line. The likes of Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, Harrison Bader, Dakota Hudson, and Jack Flaherty could see paydays with the money left over, and fans in 2024 and 2025 would be happy not to see some of those guys test free agency.

In this scenario, let’s say the Cardinals bring in Ryan Tepera to round out their bullpen and extend Tyler O’Neill in the five-year, $75 million dollar range and Dakota Hudson to a five-year, $50 million dollar deal similar to that of the recent extension Sandy Alcantara received.

The 2022 team, while similar to the 2021 version, would be able to compete with the Milwaukee Brewers with the Matz and Tepera additions. It also leaves room for potential deals to fill out the club at the deadline if they have some needs heading into the postseason. Gorman, Yepez, and Donavon would all get the opportunity to prove their talent on the Major League Level, the likes of Liberatore and Thompson would be ready to impact the club whenever they are called upon.

O’Neill and Hudson would both get locked up as well, giving the team more stability within the future finances and team outlook that will get tricky in a few years with the impending free agencies of many of their young core. O’Neill finished top-10 in MVP voting his first full season of starting in left field, Dakota Hudson has shown promise to be a No. 2 starter in this league, and the continued development of a guy like Dylan Carlson could propel this team to a playoff run, despite not adding other major pieces outside of a bullpen arm.

One Wing in Both Worlds

The most likely scenario, and one that seems to be Mozeliak’s tendency, is a little bit of the best of both worlds. If you asked me today, the club is likely to pull out one more Steven Matz level move, fill out the roster with a few more veterans, and extend one or two of their young core to solidify the future (we’ll use the O’Neill and Hudson deals again here).

While Trevor Story would still be an option in this scenario, I’d opt toward seeing the club bring in Archie Bradley and Joe Kelly, and one more veteran bench piece in the form of Josh Harrison.

This alignment reflects the best possible team the Cardinals could roll out during the season while keeping their foot in both worlds. Nolan Gorman can split time between 2B and DH, Yepez can get at bats at the corner infield, outfield, or DH spot, Tommy Edman can bounce around the infield and outfield on a day-to-day basis, and Matthew Liberatore can be called up to be utilized as a bullpen weapon or fill into the rotation in the case of injury or underperformance.

Relievers Kelly and Bradley join Gallegos, Reyes, McFarland, and Cabrera to form one of the deepest bullpens in all of baseball. Josh Harrison adds another veteran option off the bench with versality to give new manager Oliver Marmol different options each day. The rotation, barring another year of crazy injuries, is built to keep this club in games, and with a high upside lineup and top-level bullpen, they can get the job done in front of the Cardinals historic defense.