A hypothetical St. Louis Cardinals offseason blueprint

If you had control of the St. Louis Cardinals offseason, what moves would you make? Here’s one course of action.

Every St. Louis Cardinals fan has a dream or a plan for this offseason. Even after a strange, up-and-down 2021, the talent is on the roster for a lengthy postseason run in 2022. That is, if the right moves are made.

We’ve spoken at length about the pressure the front office faces this winter. The decision to fire Mike Shildt brought a lot of heat on John Mozeliak and his crew, and while the hiring of Oli Marmol as the new manager was applauded, it’s clear that all eyes are on the front office to deliver a better result than last year’s wild card berth.

What’s it like working under that kind of microscope? Very few of us will ever know. But for now, I’m inviting you all to come along as I run the Cardinals this offseason. Imagine a world where a 21-year-old college student is giving out $300 million contracts. Yep, it sounds pretty awesome.

Jack Flaherty, Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill, Giovanny Gallegos, Alex Reyes, Dakota Hudson, and Jordan Hicks are all arbitration eligible this winter. While these negotiations are each their own big offseason storylines, I’ll be delegating this task to another article. The focus of this exercise is free agency, roster construction, and trades.

The 2021 Cardinals had one of the top defenses in baseball. However, they ranked 15th in MLB in OPS, 15th in home runs, and 12th in team ERA. To be a top team, you need to be better in these categories. Luckily, plenty of hitting and pitching upgrades are available.

Here comes the six offseason moves I’m making as (hypothetical) general manager/president of baseball operations/supreme ruler of the Cardinals. And we’ll recap it all at the end – just stick with me, it gets better as the offseason blueprint moves along.

Well, the Cardinals got a jump start on free agency Monday with two big announcements. First, they re-signed left-handed reliever and double play specialist T.J. McFarland. After being picked up during the middle of the year, McFarland gave up only 11 earned runs in 38.2 innings out of the pen last year. His ERA+ of 153 and groundball rate of 62% were outstanding, and it was a smart move by the front office to keep him around on a one-year deal.

The other big news was the official announcement that Matt Carpenter would not be resigning with the Cardinals this offseason. Carpenter released a heartfelt tribute through the Player’s Tribune that is well worth a read. We salute him for all the incredible memories he gave St. Louis over the past ten years, and wish him luck wherever he goes next.

There is only one other Cardinals free agent that I would re-sign: Luis Garcia. The 34-year-old veteran was electric out of the bullpen this season, and might have been the waiver addition of the year for St. Louis. Averaging over a strikeout an inning and boasting an impressive arsenal, resigning Garcia to a one-year deal would be my next move.

Unfortunately, that means we are saying goodbye to quite a few players. Andrew Miller and Kwang-Hyun Kim were inconsistent during their time in St. Louis, but the lefties both should be remembered fondly for their positive spirits and veteran leadership. J.A. Happ, Wade LeBlanc, and Jon Lester will always be crucial members of the record win-streak team. And Carlos Martinez– well, we can get into that one another time.

So, with the addition of Luis Garcia, it’s almost time to move outside the organization and start acquiring talent. You have to take care of your own first, and by retaining McFarland and Garcia, the Cardinals have done just that. Our offseason adventure is officially underway!

Before we can start making splashes through trades and free agency, there is one important step I am taking as general manager. The Rule 5 draft takes place in just a few short weeks, and the Cardinal’s have many intriguing players to protect for the December 1st deadline.

With the addition of Garcia, the St. Louis Cardinals would have five spots on the 40-man roster. There are at least five prospects that I believe the Cardinals should protect. Remember, for another team to keep a player after selecting them in the rule five draft, they must remain with the big league club for the entirety of the season.

Delvin Perez, Luken Baker, Kramer Robertson, and Brendan Donovan are all at risk to be taken from the Cardinals. Perez rejuvenated his career last year at AAA-Memphis. Baker and Donovan shined at the plate this season at Memphis, and Robertson is a personal favorite of mine who has shown the ability to play all over the diamond while hitting for average.

Although all four of these prospects are blocked in some way at the big league level, I believe they are still very valuable. After all, the organization prides itself on depth. You might have noticed that if you add each of them to the 40-man roster, however, there’s barely room for anyone else. What about Nolan Gorman, Matthew Liberatore, and Zack Thompson? What about free agency?

Here’s where the cuts begin. The Cardinals already began this process over the weekend by designating Austin Dean, Max Moroff, and Justin Williams for assignment. Dean was claimed by the Giants, and Williams has elected free agency, but Moroff passed waivers and will remain in Memphis. The question for the Cardinals here is about ceiling. We know that they can develop talent, and each of Dean, Moroff, and Williams have shown that they have the ability to help out the big league club. The difficult decision is rostering the player who can do more.

The Cardinals might be forced to let go of some other players in similar situations. T.J. Zeuch, Johan Quezada, and LJ Newsome were exciting projects, but I am going to risk losing them as I remove them from the 40-man roster. Brandon Wadell and Junior Fernandez were the other options considered here. We’re back to 37 on the 40-man roster– can we make any other adjustments?

Well, I would heavily consider Ali Sanchez and Jose Rondon as candidates to be let go. Sanchez provides good depth at catcher, but you have to give Ivan Herrera the third catcher spot at this point, and defensive-minded catchers can be found throughout the St. Louis organization. Rondon was the ultimate spark plug off the bench this season, so I think I’ll hold on to him. But making the active roster will be mighty tough for Rondon as we improve the team in the next few steps.

We’ve seen what Lars Nootbaar can do. Juan Yepez is tearing the cover off the ball in the Arizona Fall League. Now think of the potential of Perez, Donovan, Baker, and Robertson. Can you say Devil Magic? It’ll be worth protecting each of them– trust me.

OK, the 40-man roster is at 36 players, and we’re officially ready to go for some upgrades. Let’s get to the fun part.

If you went to a lab and drew up the perfect baseball player to hit in between Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, that player might be Corey Seager. The sweet-swinging left-handed shortstop has had some injuries, sure, but he is my top target on the free agent market.

In 92 games last season, Seager slashed .306/.394/.521. He hit 16 home runs with an OPS+ of 145. His best season was as a rookie in 2016– his averages and percentages were about the same, but over 157 games, he hit 26 home runs. To put it simply, Seager is a great hitter.

MLB Trade Rumors predicts Seager will land a 10-year deal worth $305 million. Well, the great thing about the 2022 offseason is there are some stellar alternatives to Seager on the market. Free agency is unpredictable, so let’s say that Corey Seager is unavailable. At a predicted six years and $126 million, it’s easy to pivot to Trevor Story.

The “storyline” here, of course, is reuniting Trevor with his Rockies infield partner of Nolan Arenado. During their time together in Colorado, Story and Arenado were arguably the most dominant left-side of the infield in all of baseball. While he struggled a bit in 2021, it isn’t tough to imagine a rejuvenated Story jumping back to the top of the list of major league shortstops.

Really, the Cardinals should be unafraid of spending money this winter. With Carpenter, Martinez, Miller, and Dexter Fowler’s contracts coming off the books, they have plenty of extra cash. This is a once-in-a-generation chance, as Seager, Story, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, and Marcus Semien are all available superstars. I’m having a tough time coming up with a reason not to make this move. Whether it’s Seager or Story, my front office has the Cardinals going big in free agency this offseason.

Before the 2021 season, I picked Paul DeJong as my x-factor. He was all set for a rebound, and my reasoning for picking him was quite simple:

A three-headed monster is a lot more dangerous than two, which is why consistent production from DeJong would go a long way towards establishing the Cardinals as contenders.

Well, unfortunately, DeJong struggled. Injuries and career lows at the plate ultimately lost him the starting shortstop position, and he closed out the season coming off the bench. It was a far fall for DeJong, who had been one of the more consistent contributors for the Cardinals since he joined the team in 2017.

I’ve already gone after one of the historic free-agent shortstops. The question becomes what DeJong would be worth in a trade. I remain a firm believer in Paul DeJong, and although I will be trading him, I think he is a prime bounce-back candidate.

DeJong is on a very team-friendly deal ($15 million for the next two seasons, with team options for both 2024 and 2025). In addition, he is a former gold glove winner at a prime defensive position, a very cerebral player capable of making adjustments, and at 28 years old, is only two years removed from being an all-star. I imagine every team that misses out on Seager/Story/Correa and company will be interested in Paul DeJong.

Having chosen to spend on the offense in free agency, I’m looking to acquire starting pitching with a DeJong deal. And three teams that the Cardinals have a history of trading with jump out as potential matches.

First, I’m asking the Cleveland Guardians about Shane Bieber. Yes, it’s a long shot, but you have to start at the top. DeJong wouldn’t acquire the former Cy Young on his own, but packaged with a Zack Thompson and other higher-level prospects, and you might have a deal.

Bieber is arbitration eligible, and the Guardians always have more pitching in the pipeline. As they shed salary, DeJong would be a great fit for their middle infield at either second base or shortstop. St. Louis and Cleveland have dealt often in the past, and this would be a big, splashy move for both teams.

If Bieber or other Guardians starters are unavailable, the next call I would make is to Miami Marlins general manager Kim Ng. First, to congratulate on her on the impressive squad she has built, but second, to ask about some of their young starting pitching. Former St. Louis Cardinal Sandy Alcantara is probably off the table, but with Trevor Rogers, Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, and more ready for the rotation, might Pablo Lopez be on the market?

25 years old, Lopez had an ERA+ of 136 last season in 20 starts. The Marlins have Jazz Chisholm locked in at shortstop, but I have a feeling Derek Jeter won’t be afraid to acquire an additional shortstop who can hit for power. This could be a fairly straightforward deal.

The last team I’m checking with is the Oakland Athletics. The A’s are (shocker) reportedly looking to trade many of their larger contracts. Matt Chapman and Matt Olsen are the headliners, but there is some solid starting pitching on the market, as well.

Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt are two solid, mid-rotation veterans that would fit nicely in St. Louis. Both have one-year contracts and pitch to contact. They are prime examples of starters who could thrive with a gold glove defense behind them.

Frankie Montas is the other A’s starter that I would ask about. The 28-year old had the best season of his career in 2021, striking out 207 with an ERA of 3.37 in 32 starts. Bieber is the big name, and Lopez, Manaea, and Bassitt are the most available, but Montas might end up being my top target.

The Paul DeJong market will develop slowly. But starting with these three teams, I think you can adequately address the starting pitching depth this offseason through a trade.

Every offseason, teams around baseball overreact to the paths that the World Series teams took to the playoffs. After Cleveland made it on the back of Andrew Miller, the multi-inning reliever was the hot offseason acquisition. The success of the Rays has inspired a de-emphasis on starting pitching.

Usually, these trends don’t last, because it’s hard to emulate exactly what another organization has done to win in the postseason. This year, however, I think the Cardinals should take a page out of the Atlanta Braves’ playbook.

The last move I would make for the Cardinals is hard to define, but loosely, it is a goofy veteran. Much has been made about the Braves’ deadline acquisition of Joc Pederson, and I think history shows that the morale boost a player like Pederson brings to a playoff team is invaluable.

Going back to the 2011 Cardinals, I’m calling this the “Lance Berkman” guy. A power bat who can start for you if necessary, the 2022 Cardinals should find a lefty for this role. Again, there isn’t a certain stat I’m looking at here– just the ability to hit for power, a winning reputation, and a fun attitude.

Could this be Kyle Schwarber? Is Kyle Seager an option? Joc Pederson might be too expensive for this role. Is Yoshi Tsutsugo good enough? These are the kind of players I’d be inquiring about. Again, they wouldn’t be starting everyday in the field. But as a DH platoon or just as a key pinch hitter, I want a proven bat to bring some energy.

Here’s where I would rely on my scouts, on my new bench coach Skip Schumaker, and on the many Cardinal veterans who know personalities around the league. I don’t yet know the name of this x-factor, but finding him will be incredibly important.

And that’s my offseason plan! That sure was a lot of fun. To recap, here’s what I’ve done:

DFA: T.J. Zeuch, Johan Quezada, LJ Newsome, and Ali Sanchez

Add to the 40-man: Delvin Perez, Luken Baker, Kramer Robertson, and Brendan Donovan

FA signings: Corey Seager (or Trevor Story), Albert Pujols, and left-handed veteran bat

Trade away (from the 40-man): Paul DeJong

Acquire in trade: Top-end starter/starting pitching depth

I think this offseason plan leaves the team in pretty good shape for spring training. The offense has been strengthened and pitching depth has been added. Now, the team will be able to focus on developing top prospects Nolan Gorman and Matthew Liberatore, and defining roles for talented arms like Alex Reyes and Jordan Hicks.

I didn’t address the bullpen, because I think Reyes and Hicks will be crucial to the 2022 St. Louis Cardinals. For this team to be successful, they need to be healthy and consistent contributers. I don’t know what the best spot for these two flamethrowers should be, but I do know that the Cardinals are counting on their talent.

The one move I considered but did not make was signing a free agent starter– more specifically, I decided to pass on Max Scherzer. I’ve been calling for a St. Louis homecoming for Mad Max all year. With Waino’s resurgence and the need to deepen the offense, however, I just think money will be better spent elsewhere. Justin Verlander looks intriguing, too, but ultimately I chose not to pursue either of these top names.

With that, I cede control of the St. Louis Cardinals back to John Mozeliak and his crew. This is just one possible course of action— there are other options. If you’re reading this, Mo,  just spend a lot of money and trade for some all-stars. Simple as that.

This offseason is full of potential, as the Cardinals have a chance to take control of the NL Central with a few key additions. The hot stove is officially on. Here we go!