4 players on the St. Louis Cardinals playoff roster bubble

The St. Louis Cardinals need to decide whom to cut from the 28-man roster for the playoff run.

“Playoffs? You talking about playoffs?”

The term “long shot” would have been kind to describe the St. Louis Cardinals’ chances of making the postseason just one month ago. But the Cardinals of September have been a ferocious bunch, scratching, clawing and pecking their way into the second National League Wild Card position. Say what you will about the expanded playoffs, but this year, I’m glad they exist.

The September roster expansion is always interesting, but gone are the days of loading up as many players as you want for a stretch run. Only two extra spots were allotted to rosters this year, making decisions on whom to promote more important than ever.

The call-ups turned out to be relief pitcher Brandon Dickson and catcher Ali Sanchez. The Cardinals later released Dickson. Pitcher Jake Woodford was called up two days later after the Cardinals placed relief pitcher Junior Fernandez on the injured list. Sanchez never appeared in a September game and is also no longer on the active roster.

It’s safe to say the Cardinals’ September call-ups didn’t move the needle much, but the expansion to 28 players did ultimately lead to Woodford and Kodi Whitley being part of the squad.

I can imagine that while the players who were called up are happy about their promotions, some of those who are on the roster the whole season are a bit worried because they might be left off of the postseason roster. And it could be anybody; you don’t need to factor in minor league options when excluding a player from the postseason roster.

It’s an interesting dilemma for the team when it comes to deciding whom to take off of the roster. Do the Cardinals remove someone who was called up in September, or do they go for a player who was on the roster for most of the season but didn’t contribute much?

Here are some players who I think are on the roster bubble and are in danger of watching the postseason from their televisions, and I’ll include some reasons as to why they should remain on the roster and why they shouldn’t.

Jake Woodford

Keep him on the roster: Jake Woodford has been a good innings eater for much of his time this season. On Sept. 4, Woodford relieved a struggling Kwang Hyun Kim and pitched 5.1 innings, allowing no runs and only giving up two hits, saving the bullpen and keeping the Cardinals in a game that they ultimately lost 4-0.

Woodford has improved markedly as the season has gone on. His fastball strategy is better with a new sinker, and his slider has improved its spin rate and break from last year. While he struggled early in the season, he has shown an ability to adapt and improve. If he were to remain on the roster in the playoffs, he could serve well in a long relief role.

Leave him off the roster: Woodford has had some trouble against left-handers, with them putting up an .877 OPS against him. His percentile ratings on Baseball Savant show him to be lacking in most areas, including exit velocity and whiff percentage. His FIP of 4.68 is also quite a bit higher than his ERA of 3.88, which suggests some good luck for Woodford.

Woodford’s curveball also hasn’t gotten the results one might expect given its above-average break, but an expected weighted on-base average of .412 shows that it still needs some fine-tuning.

Jose Rondon

Keep him on the roster: Jose Rondon has put together his best season in the major leagues in limited opportunities, hitting .273. He has the ability to play in the infield and the outfield, giving him versatility. He’s improved his eye at the plate, with a career-high walk rate of 8.1%, and he’s cut his strikeout rate from the last two seasons. Rondon has also shown a solid ability to hit breaking balls and off-speed pitches this year.

Leave him off the roster: The Cardinals already have two other shortstops on the roster in Edmundo Sosa and Paul DeJong, making Rondon’s ability to play the outfield the only reason to keep him around for fielding purposes. His underlying stats don’t look great either, with an expected batting average of .235. Rondon has also had trouble catching up to the fastball, hitting only .235 against them, with an expected average even lower at .191.