St. Louis Cardinals: Looking back at our 2021 bold predictions

Our predictions were bold, but who knew how wild this season would be for the St. Louis Cardinals?

With less than a week left in the regular season, it’s time to take a look back at our 2021 St. Louis Cardinals bold predictions. It’s been a hectic few months of baseball, so at least one of them had to be true, right?

Before we get to the preseason predictions, I want to highlight a midseason forecast that turned out well. Here’s what I wrote about Paul Goldschmidt at the All-Star break:

Has Goldy struggled this season? Sure. But if anything is emblematic of a Cardinals rebound during the second half of this season, it will be Goldschmidt’s luck turning. It’s only a matter of time before these hard-hit balls start landing for hits. Yes, I’m aware that my predictions this season have been anything but accurate. But I firmly believe that Paul Goldschmidt will have a strong second-half. And with a healthy team around him, there’s no reason this Cardinal offense can’t return to their high levels of production from the start of the season.

It’s easier to predict the season when you have 80 games as a reference point. That being said, I’m awfully proud to have gotten something right. For those keeping score at home, Goldschmidt is leading the Cardinals in WAR this season and has been one of the best hitters in baseball since mid-July.

Unfortunately, none of us envisioned a 17-game win streak. No one imagined that the rotation would be anchored by Wade LeBlanc, Jon Lester, or J.A. Happ. If you want to check out the original article, you can read it here.  But now it’s time to check in on some bold predictions. Let’s see how we did.

John Nogowski will remain on the roster the entire season

Well, there’s a reason we call them bold predictions. Nogowski struggled for playing time at the beginning of the year before ultimately being let go. He just never got a chance. He had one hit in 18 at-bats, playing only seven innings in the field.

After leaving the Cardinals, Nogowski had a hot few weeks in Pittsburgh, batting .261 with 14 RBI over 33 games. He even pitched a few innings before being released and is now with the Giants in Triple-A. San Francisco’s first baseman Brandon Belt just got injured, so maybe Nogowski can make his way onto the playoff roster.

Really, it’s impossible to predict who on the Cardinals will be the key bench batter each season. That’s what makes this team so special. It wasn’t Nogowski, but credit is due for taking the shot.

A certain tongue-wagging, home-run robbing rookie with a veteran presence at the plate? That, in fact, we did see coming. It may not have been an official prediction, but we wrote to “keep an eye out for Lars Nootbaar” this spring:

Who knows, with a little help from the St. Louis Cardinals “Devil Magic” you may be looking at the next random prospect to come out of nowhere and produce at a high level.

Next time we’ll make that prediction official.

Matthew Liberatore arrives in July and never leaves

Unfortunately, Matthew Liberatore has yet to debut with the big-league club, so that prediction fell short as well. In 18 starts at Memphis this year, Libby is 8-9 with a 4.15 ERA. He’s finished the year strong, however, and looks likely to challenge for a roster spot next season.

Prediction Scores: 0 out of 17 wins in a row (with a bonus point given for Noot)

Paul DeJong will win the Silver Slugger

It’s been a tough season for Paul DeJong. He’s posting career lows in games played, batting average and slugging percentage. He’s right at his season high for strikeouts, too. And with Fernando Tatis Jr., Brandon Crawford and Jazz Chisholm having standout years at short, the competition for a Silver Slugger is mighty tough.

When healthy, Edmundo Sosa has captured the starting spot with his infectious energy. He’s found ways to contribute in all aspects of the game almost every night that he is in the lineup. And as Sosa has been a sparkplug, DeJong has looked frustrated.

The Cardinals need a confident Paul DeJong to complete their team. Even off the bench, he can provide some power and is a calm, veteran presence that deserves to be well-respected. We will see this offseason how DeJong fits into the Cardinal’s future, but for now, all we can do is root for the former all-star to turn things around.

Cardinals and Cubs make a surprise trade

The Cubs were sellers at the deadline, and the Cardinals did make some surprising trades. However, they did not deal together. The last time the two rivals made a trade? 2007, when the Cardinals sent the Cubs John Nelson.

It’s been almost thirty years since a major-league deal was made. Todd Zeile was dealt to the Cubs in June 1996. Before that, it was the Bruce Sutter deal in 1980.

The most famous deal, of course, was the Lou Brock trade in 1964. It’s understandable why Chicago is hesitant to deal with the Cardinals

The reason this prediction wasn’t a complete miss is because the Cardinals traded for Jon Lester. This is a man who bought the entire city of Chicago a beer as a going away present. While he may not have come directly from Chicago, Jon Lester was definitely a Cub before he arrived in St. Louis

Prediction Scores: 1 out of 17 wins in a row

Tommy Edman leads the team in WAR

I’ll be honest. This was my favorite bold prediction. In many ways, Tommy Edman has been one of the most valuable players on the Cardinals. He’s moved around the lineup, played multiple positions and leads the NL in games played (155).

Looking at WAR, Edman comes in fifth. Paul Goldschmidt leads the team at 6.2, Tyler O’Neill is next at 5.7 (that would have been quite the bold prediction), Nolan Arenado is third at 4.4, and Harrison Bader– despite missing a quarter of the season– is third at 3.9.

A fantastic season from Tommy should be applauded. Despite this prediction missing by a few wins, I still give it a good score.

Prediction Score: 8 out of 17 wins in a row

Cardinals will win eight gold gloves

The stats support that the Cardinals have one of the best defenses in baseball. Fielding Bible has them fourth in MLB in defensive runs saved. Baseball Reference has the Cardinals second in both Defensive Runs Saved Above Average and Defensive Efficiency. Very few teams can pull off this play.

Gold gloves, however, are given out individually. Harrison Bader, Paul Goldschmidt, and Tyler O’Neill are the favorites at their respective positions. Nolan Arenado has a few more errors than usual, but it looks likely that he’ll win as well. That’s four winners – can we still get to eight?

Yadier Molina deserves another piece of hardware, but it’s always tough to win when you’re up against defensive-minded catchers from around the league. Tommy Edman has moved around a fair amount, and with Kolten Wong at second base, a win there would be unlikely. The Paul DeJong/Edmundo Sosa combination at shortstop probably will fall short, too, as will Dylan Carlson in right.

Maybe Adam Wainwright gets a win? Either way, it looks like six gold gloves would be the max. The spirit of the prediction – a dominant defense – was true, but unfortunately the lofty number eight was a bit too high.

Prediction Score: 9 out of 17 wins in a row

A Cardinals starting pitcher will throw a no-hitter

It was deemed the year of the no-hitter, but the Cardinals missed out. Three times this season the Cardinals were close, but no one was able to match Bud Smith’s historical day in 2001.

The closest the Cardinals came this season? On Aug. 10 against the Pirates, J.A. Happ, Ryan Helsley, Genesis Cabrera and Alex Reyes combined for a one-hitter. Happ gave up a solo home run in the fourth, and that was it from the Pirates.

On Aug. 11, Adam Wainwright spun a two-hit complete game shutout against the Pirates in what was maybe his game of the season, and the turning point of the summer, giving up just two singles to Colin Moran.

On Aug. 30 against the Reds, Jon Lester, T.J. McFarland, Luis Garcia and Giovanny Gallegos combined for a two-hitter. Kyle Farmer hit a solo home run in the 2nd off Lester and a double off McFarland in the seventh, but that was all from the Reds.

But hey, the season isn’t over! Maybe the Cardinals can sneak one last piece of history into this week as we prepare for the wild card game.

Prediction Score: The win streak is still alive! Who knows?

We didn’t get too many predictions right. But isn’t that the magic of baseball? Every day you go to the ballpark, you get to see something new. I’m just happy we get to watch the the Cardinals keep playing in October.

Trivia answers:

Arenado (34 home runs), O’Neil (32) Goldschmidt (31), DeJong (19), Carlson (16), Bader (15), Molina (11), Edman (10); Sosa (6), Nootbaar (5), Justin Williams (4), Matt Carpenter (3), Jose Rondon (3), Andrew Knizner (1), Austin Dean (1), and Jack Flaherty (1).