St. Louis Cardinals: Looking back at our 2021 bold predictions

Our predictions were bold, but who knew how wild this season would be for the St. Louis Cardinals?

With less than a week left in the regular season, it’s time to take a look back at our 2021 St. Louis Cardinals bold predictions. It’s been a hectic few months of baseball, so at least one of them had to be true, right?

Before we get to the preseason predictions, I want to highlight a midseason forecast that turned out well. Here’s what I wrote about Paul Goldschmidt at the All-Star break:

Has Goldy struggled this season? Sure. But if anything is emblematic of a Cardinals rebound during the second half of this season, it will be Goldschmidt’s luck turning. It’s only a matter of time before these hard-hit balls start landing for hits. Yes, I’m aware that my predictions this season have been anything but accurate. But I firmly believe that Paul Goldschmidt will have a strong second-half. And with a healthy team around him, there’s no reason this Cardinal offense can’t return to their high levels of production from the start of the season.

It’s easier to predict the season when you have 80 games as a reference point. That being said, I’m awfully proud to have gotten something right. For those keeping score at home, Goldschmidt is leading the Cardinals in WAR this season and has been one of the best hitters in baseball since mid-July.

Unfortunately, none of us envisioned a 17-game win streak. No one imagined that the rotation would be anchored by Wade LeBlanc, Jon Lester, or J.A. Happ. If you want to check out the original article, you can read it here.  But now it’s time to check in on some bold predictions. Let’s see how we did.

John Nogowski will remain on the roster the entire season

Well, there’s a reason we call them bold predictions. Nogowski struggled for playing time at the beginning of the year before ultimately being let go. He just never got a chance. He had one hit in 18 at-bats, playing only seven innings in the field.

After leaving the Cardinals, Nogowski had a hot few weeks in Pittsburgh, batting .261 with 14 RBI over 33 games. He even pitched a few innings before being released and is now with the Giants in Triple-A. San Francisco’s first baseman Brandon Belt just got injured, so maybe Nogowski can make his way onto the playoff roster.

Really, it’s impossible to predict who on the Cardinals will be the key bench batter each season. That’s what makes this team so special. It wasn’t Nogowski, but credit is due for taking the shot.

A certain tongue-wagging, home-run robbing rookie with a veteran presence at the plate? That, in fact, we did see coming. It may not have been an official prediction, but we wrote to “keep an eye out for Lars Nootbaar” this spring:

Who knows, with a little help from the St. Louis Cardinals “Devil Magic” you may be looking at the next random prospect to come out of nowhere and produce at a high level.

Next time we’ll make that prediction official.

Matthew Liberatore arrives in July and never leaves

Unfortunately, Matthew Liberatore has yet to debut with the big-league club, so that prediction fell short as well. In 18 starts at Memphis this year, Libby is 8-9 with a 4.15 ERA. He’s finished the year strong, however, and looks likely to challenge for a roster spot next season.

Prediction Scores: 0 out of 17 wins in a row (with a bonus point given for Noot)

Tommy Edman leads the team in WAR

I’ll be honest. This was my favorite bold prediction. In many ways, Tommy Edman has been one of the most valuable players on the Cardinals. He’s moved around the lineup, played multiple positions and leads the NL in games played (155).

Looking at WAR, Edman comes in fifth. Paul Goldschmidt leads the team at 6.2, Tyler O’Neill is next at 5.7 (that would have been quite the bold prediction), Nolan Arenado is third at 4.4, and Harrison Bader– despite missing a quarter of the season– is third at 3.9.

A fantastic season from Tommy should be applauded. Despite this prediction missing by a few wins, I still give it a good score.

Prediction Score: 8 out of 17 wins in a row

Cardinals will win eight gold gloves

The stats support that the Cardinals have one of the best defenses in baseball. Fielding Bible has them fourth in MLB in defensive runs saved. Baseball Reference has the Cardinals second in both Defensive Runs Saved Above Average and Defensive Efficiency. Very few teams can pull off this play.

Gold gloves, however, are given out individually. Harrison Bader, Paul Goldschmidt, and Tyler O’Neill are the favorites at their respective positions. Nolan Arenado has a few more errors than usual, but it looks likely that he’ll win as well. That’s four winners – can we still get to eight?

Yadier Molina deserves another piece of hardware, but it’s always tough to win when you’re up against defensive-minded catchers from around the league. Tommy Edman has moved around a fair amount, and with Kolten Wong at second base, a win there would be unlikely. The Paul DeJong/Edmundo Sosa combination at shortstop probably will fall short, too, as will Dylan Carlson in right.

Maybe Adam Wainwright gets a win? Either way, it looks like six gold gloves would be the max. The spirit of the prediction – a dominant defense – was true, but unfortunately the lofty number eight was a bit too high.

Prediction Score: 9 out of 17 wins in a row

Four Cardinals will hit 30 home runs

This was a very bold prediction, as the last trio of teammates on the Cardinals to hit 30 home runs was Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, and Albert Pujols back in 2004. With this in mind, read what we wrote back in March:

We all know Goldy and Arenado have 30 homer potential, as they’ve both hit the mark multiple times in their careers. Shortstop Paul DeJong hit 30 in 2019, and Tyler O’Neill has that power potential as well. If both players can stay healthy and consistently stay in the lineup on a day to day basis, they could easily hit the 30 homer mark.

Three out of four is pretty phenomenal. In large part, this came true because the O’Neill breakout is real. He looks comfortable batting third, and when you can stack three 30 home run guys back-to-back-to-back, it makes for a very deep lineup.

DeJong didn’t get there, but I’ll call this a success anyway. In fact, he is comfortably in fourth on the Cardinals with 19 home runs. And in other home run news, Arenado needs two more to tie Matt Carpenter’s 2018 campaign for the most on the Cardinals in one season (34) since Albert hit 37 in 2011.

The Cardinals have hit 192 home runs this season, which is the exact league average. The finished with 210 and were well below league average in 2019.

In case you were wondering, eight Cardinals hit 10 or more home runs this year. Sixteen Cardinals hit at least one. Do you know who they are? We’ll give you the answer to this trivia question at the end. But in the meantime, well done on the prediction Taylor!

Prediction Score: 14 out of 17 wins in a row

A Cardinals starting pitcher will throw a no-hitter

It was deemed the year of the no-hitter, but the Cardinals missed out. Three times this season the Cardinals were close, but no one was able to match Bud Smith’s historical day in 2001.

The closest the Cardinals came this season? On Aug. 10 against the Pirates, J.A. Happ, Ryan Helsley, Genesis Cabrera and Alex Reyes combined for a one-hitter. Happ gave up a solo home run in the fourth, and that was it from the Pirates.

On Aug. 11, Adam Wainwright spun a two-hit complete game shutout against the Pirates in what was maybe his game of the season, and the turning point of the summer, giving up just two singles to Colin Moran.

On Aug. 30 against the Reds, Jon Lester, T.J. McFarland, Luis Garcia and Giovanny Gallegos combined for a two-hitter. Kyle Farmer hit a solo home run in the 2nd off Lester and a double off McFarland in the seventh, but that was all from the Reds.

But hey, the season isn’t over! Maybe the Cardinals can sneak one last piece of history into this week as we prepare for the wild card game.

Prediction Score: The win streak is still alive! Who knows?

We didn’t get too many predictions right. But isn’t that the magic of baseball? Every day you go to the ballpark, you get to see something new. I’m just happy we get to watch the the Cardinals keep playing in October.

Trivia answers:

Arenado (34 home runs), O’Neil (32) Goldschmidt (31), DeJong (19), Carlson (16), Bader (15), Molina (11), Edman (10); Sosa (6), Nootbaar (5), Justin Williams (4), Matt Carpenter (3), Jose Rondon (3), Andrew Knizner (1), Austin Dean (1), and Jack Flaherty (1).