Cardinals: What might an Adam Wainwright extension look like?

With Yadier Molina earning a raise from the St. Louis Cardinals, what might Adam Wainwright’s eventual extension look like?

The final terms of Yadier Molina extension’s with the St. Louis Cardinals — one-year, $9 million — was a $1 million raise from his 2021 salary. It came as a surprise to some, considering that his numbers have dropped in recent seasons, though Travis d’Arnaud’s two-year, $16 million extension with the Atlanta Braves only a week earlier all but guaranteed that Molina would get a raise.

With Molina signed, and him making his intentions clear that he wants Adam Wainwright to re-sign for another season with the Cardinals, it begs the question: what might a Wainwright extension look like?

Wainwright, 39, is earning $8 million this season with the Cardinals this season. His numbers — 3.10 ERA in 25 starts (162.2 innings) with a 150/39 strikeout-to-walk ratio — indicate that not only is he still an effective starter, but still a frontline starter. And he is among the league leaders in innings pitched, something that the Cardinals have desperately needed as their rotation has fallen apart throughout the season, especially after Jack Flaherty was placed on the injured list once again with a shoulder injury.

It puts Wainwright in a position of leverage and sets him up nicely to earn a raise in 2022. Charlie Morton, who is 37 and had similar numbers to Wainwright (3.13 ERA in 2018 and 3.05 ERA in 2019 before a down 2020 season), received a one-year, $15 million contract with the Atlanta Braves in free agency last year. That could be the kind of contract Wainwright receives should he test the free agent market once again this winter.

It’s possible that Wainwright does test free agency since there have been no signs that he has had discussions with the Cardinals about a new contract. But if Wainwright does play in 2022, and he has said that he will consider retirement in the offseason, he’s incredibly likely to play only in St. Louis. His history with the team and the recent re-signing of Molina assures that.

So while he compares very similarly to Morton, look for Wainwright to eventually return to the Cardinals on a one-year deal in the $10-12 million range. That would make both Molina and Wainwright happy, of course, and give them one last shot at pursuing a World Series in St. Louis. But it would also allow them to ride off into the sunset together following the 2022 season, something that would perfectly cap off their storybook careers.