The reasons why St. Louis Cardinals won’t sign Carlos Correa

Carlos Correa recently said he’s unlikely to return to the Houston Astros, but don’t look for him to end up with the St. Louis Cardinals.

The St. Louis Cardinals are likely to look for shortstop upgrades this winter. Free-agent shortstop Carlos Correa, arguably the best player available, recently told The Athletic that this will be his last season with the Houston Astros.

Should the Cardinals pursue Correa?

Of course. Correa, 26, is a game changing type talent and has carried the Astros in the playoffs, though it should be noted their World Series championship came in the middle of their sign stealing scandal. But Correa remains an elite talent and adding his bat — .276/.373/.477 slashline with 19 home runs and 68 RBI in 434 at-bats this season — and elite defense at shortstop would provide a significant upgrade over Paul DeJong.

Just imagine a lineup featuring Correa, Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. Who competes with that? I am having a hard time thinking of a team not named the Los Angeles Dodgers that can put up a trio like that on any given night.

But will the Cardinals pursue Correa? Now is when we come back to reality.

Signing Correa is going to get expensive. Like, really expensive. The reason why he is preparing to leave the Astros is because they offered him an extension in the $120-125 million range, as Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported, when he will be searching for the $340-341 million extension that Fernando Tatis Jr. and Francisco Lindor, two other elite shortstops, received before leaving free agency. Fitting that type of contract into a budget that already includes Arenado and Goldschmidt will prove incredibly difficult.

It’s hard to see the Cardinals making a competitive offer when the bidding is going to get that high. Besides, there is another element to this entire situation that complicates things: DeJong. He is signed for $6 million in 2022 and $9 million in 2023 with two club options for the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Adding Correa would require the Cardinals to shed DeJong’s contract. There could be some suitors, especially since his contract is relatively cheap for a player who has 30+ home run ability, but it’s hard to imagine there will be a long list of suitors for a player who is hitting .199/.292/.382 in 301 at-bats this season.

President of baseball operations John Mozeliak and the Cardinals front office are likely to place a call in to check on Correa’s asking price and market. After all, that’s what all good GMs do. But the idea of Correa ending up in St. Louis feels like a pipedream and that might be putting it lightly.