The St. Louis Cardinals have (almost) no chance to win NL Central

The St. Louis Cardinals are 12 games back of the Brewers with a month to go and their odds to catch them are almost zero, per FanGraphs.

In a season that began with World Series aspirations, the St. Louis Cardinals are on the outside looking in on the playoff picture. They’re finally above .500 (63-60) and sit 12 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers with a little over a month of the season to go.

And as you can expect, the Cardinals’ chances to win the National League Central are almost zero. Almost. FanGraphs, via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, lists the Cardinals’ odds of winning the division at 0.1 percent. The Brewers, meanwhile, have a 96.5 percent chance while the Reds’ odds sit at 3.4 percent.

So you’re saying there’s a chance. Well, yes, but really the answer is no. It would take a historic collapse from the Brewers and the Cardinals playing their best baseball of the season to make such a comeback possible. They do play 11 more games against the Brewers, so while nothing can be ruled out, don’t get your hopes up that the Cardinals somehow win the division.

The most likely scenario for some time has been that the Cardinals get the second wild card spot and play a one-game playoff with either the Los Angeles Dodgers or San Francisco Giants. Even that will prove tough. They first will need to catch the Cincinnati Reds, who are 7-3 in their last 10 games and lead them by 5.5 games, and also the San Diego Padres, who continue to fall (2-8 in last 10 games) and fired their pitching coach Larry Rothschild on Monday.

What’s working in the Cardinals’ favor is they are playing two games against the Detroit Tigers and then four more games against the Pirates, who own one of the worst records in the NL, before playing a three-game set against the Reds. But with three more series against the Brewers and another against the Dodgers looming, getting to the playoffs won’t be easy.

Their best chance is the wild card. Winning the division can all but be ruled out at this point.