Are the St. Louis Cardinals back in playoff contention?

The St. Louis Cardinals have played much better baseball in the last few weeks. Are the playoffs suddenly within reach or is the success a mirage caused by lackluster opponents?

The St. Louis Cardinals have been mired in mediocrity for most of the 2021 season. Their roster is filled with holes and the front office hit the snooze button on the trade deadline. Still facing what can best be described as a longshot to reach the postseason, it’s easy to feel better about the state of Cardinals baseball since the calendar flipped to August.

After a sweep at the hands of a resurgent Atlanta Braves team, the Cardinals looked done. However, they are now winners of eight of nine games and have finally pulled themselves away from the clutches of .500.

But how much stock can we put into this current winning streak?

I’m split here. The competition was certainly subpar, with the last place Pirates and Royals not putting up much resistance. On the flip side, these were teams the Cardinals were struggling with earlier in the season.

The fact is, the Cardinals have dug themselves too big of a hole. Per FanGraphs playoff odds, they have a 5.8% chance of advancing to the postseason. Their best path forward is the wild card, as the Milwaukee Brewers have a 10-game lead over the Cardinals in the division. The two teams will match up several more times before the end of the season, so they have a chance. But needless to say, they would need to win the overwhelming majority of those games. Don’t forget those pesky Cincinnati Reds, who are still ahead of the Cardinals in the division as well.

The Cardinals have enjoyed a break in the schedule that has allowed them to feast upon lackluster teams. Credit to them for taking advantage. Their September schedule isn’t as forgiving.

For now, the Cardinals have done enough to see some sunshine penetrate through the cracks. They have (if only modestly) boosted their slim playoff odds, in part thanks to a weak stretch of opponents. It’s fair to point out that the team has looked much better the last few weeks, and newcomer J.A. Happ has looked rather good since joining the team. Another newcomer, Jon Lester, picked up his first win in Cardinals red this weekend against the Royals.

Things seem to be trending up for the Cardinals and while a playoff run is still unlikely, they could play well enough to keep things interesting in September. Are they back in playoff contention? Maybe? Probably not. The rest of the season will tell if this is the turning point in the season or rather a blip thanks to the level of opposition.