St. Louis Cardinals: Four predictions for the rest of 2021

Jack is completely back!

Friday marks the long-awaited return to an MLB mound for Jack Flaherty. Out since the last day of May when he tweaked an oblique muscle on the mound and further aggravated it in the batter’s box, Flaherty begins his comeback in Kansas City, carefully timed to allow for a designated hitter to take his spot in the lineup to reduce the odds a recurrence of that muscle strain.

While he’s been out, the Cardinals have experienced a steep slide from the top of the National League Central division standings to third place, with large gaps above and below them in the standings.

What St. Louis fans should be eager to see is whether Flaherty will return to his previous heights, and the odds are he will. After all, Flaherty began the year with 11 strong starts, pacing the NL at the time of his injured list placement with eight victories, losing only once during that time, posting a 2.90 ERA (132 ERA+) and 67 strikeouts in 62 innings while allowing a stingy 70 baserunners.

That impressive beginning to the campaign provided additional evidence that Flaherty is one of the top pitchers in the NL and clearly the ace of the Cardinals’ staff. While his career record of 31-23 may not demonstrate an extended run of excellence, pitchers record wins and losses less often than ever before.

The fact is, other than last season’s exceedingly odd campaign for everyone, which resulted in a 4.91 ERA (87 ERA+) for Flaherty, he has been a top-notch hurler since 2018. He finished in fifth-place in Rookie of the Year voting that season and followed it up the next year by coming in fourth in Cy Young Award voting and receiving enough MVP consideration to finish 13th.

St. Louis has the ability to keep Flaherty around for a minimum of three more seasons, and how he wraps up this campaign will be a nice insight into how those years may play out. With under 50 games remaining following his Friday return, another 9-10 starts are likely.

Based on his career to date, it’s realistic to expect those starts to allow Flaherty to reestablish his place among the top tier of starting pitchers. Taking at stab at his numbers, let’s go with a 6-2 record, 3.33 ERA in 54 frames, and 57 whiffs against 18 free passes.

Anything in the ballpark of those numbers will be sufficient for Cardinals fans to spend the offseason in eager anticipation of Opening Day in 2022. That will be March 31, exactly 10 months after Flaherty exited a game with an injury that cost him more than two months. With any luck, that start will kick off a playoff-bound campaign St. Louis spectators can rally around.