St. Louis Cardinals: Four predictions for the rest of 2021

The St. Louis Cardinals’ season has not gone how fans envisioned. But here are a few predictions for the rest of the regular season.

Though the St. Louis Cardinals continue to hang out in the .500 neighborhood with playoff odds basically at a similar level – in other words, roughly 0.5% – there still are many reasons to follow the team over the last several weeks of this campaign.

Following the exploits of one of the franchise’s all-time great batteries in Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina is always a treat.  Their performances – such as Wainwright’s two-hitter Wednesday – are nearly as reliable as they are impressive.  While you can be pretty sure what you’ll get from those two veterans, even as the sun has started to set on their outstanding careers, there are many unknowns worth speculating about over the rest of this campaign.

Starting pitching has been a struggle all season due to a challenging combination of injuries, inexperience, and ineptitude.  However, there remain a few promising possibilities that might bode well.  A return to health and a promising dose of youthful exuberance should provide some optimism for the future.  Given some of the current options in the rotation, help clearly is needed – and soon.

Despite Busch Stadium’s well-earned reputation as a pitchers park, one that suppresses home runs even more than general run-scoring, the Redbirds have a solid number of players with the power to drive shots deep into the seats. How often they’ll do that and who might emerge as the greatest threats to the player who clearly is their biggest thumper should provide an entertaining chase to the finish line.

Anything can happen, and a final burst akin to that from a decade ago – coincidentally, the last time St. Louis won the World Series – could shove the Cardinals right back into postseason consideration.  However, absent that, let’s take a deeper look at several areas of focus Redbird fans can keep their eyes on as we head toward October.

Liberatore and Thompson will be starting in September

Of course, it’s not just Flaherty who’s been missing from the Cards’ starting rotation. Miles Mikolas has made one start, pitching all of 4.0 frames, before getting hurt once again. Kwang-Hyun Kim is on the injured list for the third time this season. And Carlos Martinez has been a mix of hurt and horrendous throughout the year.

There has been some optimistic news recently regarding the rotation beyond Flaherty’s return. Mikolas is on a rehab stint and could be back with the big league club in a week or two. Daniel Ponce de Leon is healthy and looking to get his ERA below 7.00, though that’s probably going to happen out of the bullpen.

And then there are the new trade acquisitions. J.A. Happ has looked really good over 11 innings in two starts, though the 6.77 ERA he posted in 19 turns through the rotation in Minnesota ought to lessen fans’ enthusiasm. Jon Lester has been atrocious while taking the bump twice for St. Louis starts, allowing 11 earned runs in 10-1/3 innings. On the heels of a 5.02 ERA for Washington this season prior to being picked up at the trade deadline, would anyone have expected better?

Adam Wainwright has been has been a stud, which is a mix of pleasant surprise given his age and expected given his history. And then there’s Wade LeBlanc, owner of an unexpected 3.12 while pitching in a birds-on-the-bat jersey.

So, with under two months to go and age and injury both ongoing concerns, what will the Cardinals do? Well, at least by September 1 roster expansion, it should be audition time for Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson. Let the kids play, as MLB’s recent tagline says!

No, Liberatore (5.03 ERA) and Thompson (6.61 ERA) haven’t been particularly good at Triple-A Memphis. Yes, service time is a consideration since bringing either pitcher up would start their arbitration and free agent clocks when holding them down until two weeks into 2022 would garner the team another year of control.

However, service time may or may not be a concern following the completion of the new CBA negotiations. And if the rules don’t change, St. Louis certainly could keep them back until mid-May next year if they want to.

But assuming the next three weeks don’t include a surge in the standings, getting an extended look at these two young pitchers (Liberatore, 21; Thompson, 23) will help the Cardinals better understand what they have going into the winter.

Whether they’re fill-ins as other starters get hurt, part of an expanded six-man rotation, or piggyback/tandem starters sharing one spot, there’s little to lose letting these youngsters get acclimated to the big leagues when there’s not much pressure.

If they blossom in this limited exposure, great. If they falter, well, there’s a team in Memphis for them to return to next season. It’s time to liberate Liberatore and turn Thompson loose.

Four 20-HR hitters, but just one tops 25

The Cardinals are not a strong offensive club, ranking 26th in runs per game at 4.01. The few teams behind them are either in last place in their respective division (Miami, Texas, Pittsburgh) or have had their offense particularly ravaged by injuries (New York Mets). It doesn’t help to play in a ballpark that has suppressed run scoring by more than 10% below average this season.

When it comes to the long ball, Busch Stadium III makes things even more difficult, reducing home run output by more than 20% this year compared to a neutral ballpark. Despite that, St. Louis has one player – Nolan Arenado – on pace to top 30 homers, with him currently tracking toward 32. Given his history of power production, this doesn’t come as a surprise for Arenado, who has averaged 35 home runs per 162 games played during his career.

Unless someone else gets really hot the rest of the year, Arenado will be well clear of his teammates in terms of big flies. Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O’Neill each have 18 homers, which puts them on pace to reach 26-27. However, “on pace” is always a sketchy tool to use, and with both of these hitters prone to hot and cold streaks, the safer bet is neither tops 25 home runs.

Paul DeJong hit home run No. 16 on Thursday afternoon, putting him on track to reach 23-24. That makes 20 homers likely but 25 almost certainly out of reach.

If Harrison Bader, Yadier Molina, and Tommy Edman all can flex their muscles a bit over the last couple of months, they could give the Redbirds a full lineup of eight players reaching the double-digit homer mark.

This year’s Cardinals certainly will never be confused with the Yankees’ Bronx Bombers or the Twins’ recent Bomba Squad. But given their ballpark, a more significant emphasis on speed and defense, and the lack of a DH, no one would have expected them to.

Still, whether by the long ball or other means, St. Louis needs to figure out a way to score more runs – this season and in the future. Not every player needs to be as jacked as O’Neill, but a little more power from somewhere would be a great way for the Redbirds to add to a relatively punchless offense and make the rest of the 2021 campaign a little more exciting.

That’s (not quite) a wrap

Starting pitching and offensive firepower are two clear needs for the Cardinals if they have any hope of pulling of a miracle postseason run.

Whether that pitching would come from known quantities coming back strong from injury, kids stepping up under the pressure of the bright lights of the big leagues, or – hey, why not? – deadline-day veteran acquisitions turning back the clock and working some magic, fans wouldn’t care. They’ll take stellar performances wherever they might come from.

Similarly, if Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, or anyone else in the lineup morphed into a powerful beast and launched 12-15 balls over the wall and eclipsed Nolan Arenado for the team lead in homers while also leading the Redbirds up the standings, not a single supporter would object.

Another possible surprise could include a new bullpen arm stepping up and staunching the bleeding in terms of free passes. Maybe it’s Giovanny Gallegos demonstrating a level of command and control that gives manager Mike Shildt enough faith in him to assign him closer duties when Alex Reyes continues to walk the ballpark. Or maybe Shildt simply finds another arm he has enough faith in that he doesn’t pitch the arms off the relievers he currently trusts.

Perhaps Matt Carpenter discovers the fountain of youth like he did in the second half of 2018 and provides the patience and power the lineup needs to spark it into a higher gear. Is that too much to ask? Yeah, probably.

Really, though, is any combination of these things likely? No, but hopes and dreams aren’t based on what’s likely. They’re based on what could happen, what might be possible. And St. Louis could make a run at October baseball. I won’t predict that, but we’ll have to see how the last 50-plus games go. Stranger things have happened, so maintain that hope and faith as long as you can.