St. Louis Cardinals: 2 who have rewarded team’s faith, 1 who hasn’t

Adam Wainwright

The Cardinals’ starting rotation has been in shambles this year, but the one consistently stellar performer has been the 39-year-old Adam Wainwright. A few years ago, Wainwright appeared to be on his last leg. But he has adjusted and found ways to get batters out while relying on moxie and guile.

It seemed that the Cardinals were on the fence about whether to bring back Wainwright because of his advanced age, but the team’s decision to retain him has paid off. Wainwright has been one of the team’s most consistent pitchers this year, and in a season where the rotation has been decimated with injuries, the need for Wainwright to turn in a strong season was integral for the team to stay afloat. And Wainwright has delivered.

According to Codify, Inc., among pitchers with at least 600 pitches in 2021, Wainwright leads them all in pitches inside the zone that batters have laid off, at 37.8 percent. The league average is 28.9 percent. Clearly, Wainwright has become a master of pitch trickery.

While the Cardinals might have been hesitant to re-sign Wainwright because of their doubt that he could put up stellar results at his age, there shouldn’t be a question about whether the team will attempt to keep him next year. The question, though, is twofold: Will Wainwright want to play another season, and will there be a baseball season next year? The renewal of the collective bargaining agreement puts the season in jeopardy.

While Wainwright has done his part to keep the Cardinals on the fringes of playoff contention, many other pitchers haven’t been able to hold up their ends of the bargain. While I’m sure Wainwright would love to end his career with his team on top once more, he might have to settle with retiring while still being able to get batters out at a high level. That’s a higher note than most go out on.

Harrison Bader

Harrison Bader has taken an astronomical leap forward at the plate in 2021. He was always an elite defender in center field, but many fans were getting fed up with his lack of success at the plate. After all, players who can field but not hit a lick are a dime a dozen. But Bader has made a noticeable change in his approach at the dish this year.

In a FanGraphs article, Ben Clemens noted that Bader has swung at more pitches in the zone this year after being too passive at the plate in years prior. The results speak for themselves. Bader is slashing career highs in average, OBP and slugging with a line of .274/.341/.468.

Of course, Bader hasn’t lost his ability to play defense either. Fielding statistics show him to be almost exactly as effective as he was last year in center field. He also still possesses top-of-the-scale speed. If Bader can continue to refine his game, he could be a very dangerous player in all facets of the sport.

Even if he were still a liability at the plate, Bader would continue to have value in the field. Many fans seem to take defense for granted until a player who can’t field is thrown out there. Bader was valuable before his offensive breakout, but he is doubly so now.

The FanGraphs article linked above says Bader has made a real adjustment to his approach at the plate, and it appears this could be a turning point in his career if his improved aggressiveness holds. The article does mention Bader’s lack of barrels and sweet spot percentage in his batted balls, but the fact that Bader has managed to patch a major hole in his game has helped his outlook greatly.

The Cardinals could have given up on Bader and attempted to trade him, or they simply could have demoted him, but president of baseball operations John Mozeliak’s confidence in Bader and manager Mike Shildt’s determination to continue to put him in the lineup seem to have delivered results.

Paul DeJong

On the other side of the wall, we have Paul DeJong, who has regressed in nearly every facet of the game this year and is making his contract extension through 2023 appear worrisome to everyone in the organization.

DeJong is struggling to stay above the Mendoza Line in 2021, and his average exit velocity is near the bottom of the league. His Baseball Savant stats do show that he has been a bit unlucky, but he still has an expected batting average of .215.

DeJong hasn’t shown his Gold Glove-caliber defense from 2019 in the past two years either. While he has improved a bit from last year in his Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average, he is still nowhere close to what he showed in 2019.

The Cardinals might be tempted by the elite shortstop options in free agency this offseason: Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Andrelton Simmons and Brandon Crawford could all sign with new teams in 2022, and if the Cardinals want a piece of the action, they’ll have to make some decisions with DeJong.

The Cardinals would do well to give DeJong one more chance, though. With the [sigh] designated hitter likely to arrive in the National League in 2022, there will be another spot in the lineup for a hitter, and that spot could be enough to squeeze DeJong in there while still being able to acquire a hotshot shortstop in free agency.

It might take more than DeJong himself to fix the mechanical issue he said he spotted in his swing. A new hitting coach could find something in DeJong’s approach that has been missing this year and fine-tune it.

While the Cardinals’ faith in DeJong might be shaken, one bad season doesn’t always define a player’s career. If he can turn it around next year, expect his power bat to play a big role in the team’s offense.

Fans’ hindsight is 20/20, but it’s impossible to know which decisions will prosper and which will fall flat. Wainwright’s and Bader’s performances have been great to watch unfold, while DeJong’s lack of results has caused frustration among the fanbase. Sometimes the front office and management hit a home run, and sometimes they strike out, but when it comes right down to it, they’re guessing just as much as fans at home are.