St. Louis Cardinals: Three predictions for spring training

Carlos Martinez wins the job as 5th starter

At this point, many fans forget just how good Carlos Martinez was from 2015-2017. His 3.24 ERA and 126 ERA+ over 92 starts in his age 23-25 seasons spoke to the huge potential the righty had, but his career has been hurt by injury and a lack of consistency since then.

Coming into 2020 (this time last year), Martinez was slotted into a starting role after coming in healthy and ready to go. Then the world got turned upside down. In his first start of the shortened season, Martinez got rocked in the final game before the team’s COVID-19 outbreak. As one of the first players to test positive, it wouldn’t have been surprising to guess that Martinez was positive during that start.

During the team’s 17-day break, Martinez was hospitalized, and even once he recovered he struggled for much of the season.

After the season, Martinez didn’t relax, he kept pitching. Making five starts in total in the Dominican Winter League and then in the Caribbean series, Martinez allowed just six runs over 26.2 innings, striking out 30 batters. Sure, the talent is lesser than the MLB, but there were plenty of MLB-caliber players sprinkled in the DWL and in the Caribbean series, including teammate Yadier Molina.

Those 26.2 innings were also a larger sample than the 20 innings he threw in the entire 2020 season. As someone who watched three of the five starts, Martinez looked dominant. Coming into spring, he’s going to be fresh and ready to reclaim his starting spot.

It’ll take a lot for the Cardinals to pick up Martinez’s $17M option for 2022, he has to be coming into spring training knowing that he’s going to have to earn that contract.

Genesis Cabrera secures a late-inning role

In 2021, the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen looks like it will be a force to be reckoned with. First, Jordan Hicks is making his return, but the group also is returning with Andrew Miller, Giovanny Gallegos, Ryan Helsley, John Gant, and whoever else doesn’t earn the 5th starter spot.

The group was a strength last year, but one name isn’t being talked about enough. If you could guess, that is Genesis Cabrera. Right now, Cabrera is penciled in as the third lefty on the depth chart out of the bullpen, but there is a chance he could jump up the chart with a strong spring.

Cabrera, the centerpiece of the Tommy Pham trade, debuted in 2019 but is still just 24 years old. While 2019 was a little shaky, he doesn’t get enough credit for the way he threw in 2020. Second only to Tyler Webb in appearances (but beating him in innings with 22.1), Cabrera was quietly one of the team’s best relievers last season.

More from St Louis Cardinals News

• Cardinals: Jose Quintana’s Market Price is Overvalued
• Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt builds home for single mother and her family
• Cardinals: Is Lars Nootbaar underrated or overrated?
• 3 reasons why the Cardinals should wait to address rotation until 2024
• 5 Cardinals who must improve this off-season

His 2.42 ERA and 12.9 K/9 reflect the fantastic stuff that Cabrera has, even if he needs to get his walks down (16 walks in his 22.1 innings). Like Martinez, Cabrera also pitched in the DWL. Over six appearances (7.2 innings), Cabrera didn’t let up a single hit or run, striking out 10. However, he did walk five batters.

The Cardinals don’t love to name roles in the bullpen, but it’d be easy to see the fireballer play his way into an 8th-inning role if he can show more command. Walking batters late in games is an easy way to not pitch late in games, but Cabrera’s stuff is too electric to ignore. If he can just get the walks under control, the sky is the limit for the lefty.

The Cards leave with three definitive starters in the outfield

The St. Louis Cardinals’ outfield is young and inexperienced. The player with the most service time is Harrison Bader with only 348 games under his belt. Per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch, the Cardinals have only named Harrison Bader as the outfielder written in pen for a starting job.

Beyond Bader in center field, Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, Lane Thomas, and Justin Williams, will all be fighting for a job at one of the corners or on the bench. When the Cardinals leave Jupiter, it is likely that only three of these four head North to Cincinnati for Opening Day.

The easy choice for left field is Tyler O’Neill after his Gold Glove campaign in 2020. For right field, the team will likely want to give Dylan Carlson as many at-bats as possible to continue his growth. Predicting these three as the starting outfield isn’t going out on a limb, but the team rarely leaves spring without naming a starter at each position in the field.

All of the outfielders on the 40-man will get plenty of playing time this spring, but I believe the cream will rise to the top, and that’ll end up being O’Neill/Bader/Carlson. At the end of the day, the Cardinals shouldn’t leave spring training without knowing which three outfielders will take the field on Opening Day.

There are plenty of other options for predictions to be made, but these three are the things I’ll be watching closest this spring. Even if all of these are wrong, the Cardinals are greatly improved and I’ll be wrong every day of the week if it means it can be baseball season.