St. Louis Cardinals: Ranking the players with the most value beyond 2021

FREE AGENTS AND BUYOUT CANDIDATES:

40-36: Andrew Miller (FA 2022), Dexter Fowler (FA 2022), Kwang-Hyun Kim (FA 2022), Matt Carpenter (buyout in 2022), Carlos Martinez (club option 2022)

These are the high-priced veterans who are unlikely to resign with the Cardinals next season. Fowler and Miller have had very up-and-down tenures in St. Louis, but both have trended upwards as their deals have winded down. While not living up to the big contracts they originally signed, both have been exemplary Cardinals off the field, and I wish nothing more but to see them produce at a high level as a Cardinal one last time in 2021.

KK will be a valuable member of the rotation this year, and it could make sense to keep him around in the future. However, with the amount of depth the Cardinals have coming up through the system, they might be better off spending money elsewhere. A productive signing by John Mozeliak and the front office, but not a player who fits into the long-term plans.

Unless Carpenter and Martinez shock the world this season, I’d expect both players to become free agents in 2022. Carpenter is a fan-favorite, and I for one will be sad to see him go. I think this at-bat against Clayton Kershaw is the greatest plate appearance I’ve ever seen. With multiple young third base prospects, I don’t see Carpenter playing in St. Louis after this season.

Martinez is still a wild card. If he returns to his All-Star form, I would love for him to stick around. He brings an energy and flair to the mound that is special in baseball. If he can pitch consistently out of the rotation this season, the Cardinals will definitely pick up his option. If not, he will continue to be the subject of trade rumors as his time in St. Louis comes to a close.

ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH:

35-32: John Nogowski, Edmundo Sosa, Justin Williams, Austin Dean

31-26: Seth Elledge, Junior Fernandez, Austin Gomber, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Kodi Whitley, Jake Woodford

This is an odd section of the roster. This group has some very talented players, and most of them will play a role on the Cardinals for the next few years. However, the most likely contribution from this group is to be a depth piece on the backend of the bullpen or the bench.

The biggest strength of the Cardinals organization is depth, and that is reflected here. Nogowski is a sure-handed first baseman with pop. Sosa is going to play an important utility infield role this season and has the tools to surprise people. And both Dean and Williams have done nothing but hit in the minor leagues.

The pitchers in this group are no slouches either. Gomber and Ponce have provided valuable innings as starters and relievers the past few seasons, and Fernandez and Whitley in particular have shown an exceptional arsenal on the mound.

But as you’ll see moving forward on this list, each of these ten is blocked by one or more prospects who do the same thing that they do. A surprising performance in 2021 could vault any of them higher up on this list, but as currently situated, these guys are not the ones the St. Louis Cardinals should be focused on building around.

THREE LOOSELY RELATED RELIEF PITCHERS:

In all honesty, I have no idea how to evaluate these three. Because they are all relievers and have established themselves at the major league level, I grouped them together. Otherwise, they’re very different.

25-John Gant (arb 2022, FA 2023)

John Gant might be in the most perplexing situation on the St. Louis Cardinals’ roster. He’s been very valuable out of the bullpen, yet every year there are rumors that he should be in the rotation. He’s arbitration-eligible for one more season, but he’s already 28 years old. I’m not sure the best role for him, or if he’ll be around after 2021. For now, however, he is a consistent reliever– every team is happy to have one of those.

24-Tyler Webb

Speaking of unusual, here comes Tyler Webb. Maybe the most beloved player of the Redbird Rants staff, the lefty should not be good according to many advanced metrics on how good his stuff is. Against those odds, he’s been effective for two full years now as a Cardinal. A slightly above average left-handed reliever only has so high of a ceiling, so despite being under team control for the next few years, he slots in here on this list.

23-Giovanny Gallegos

I really wanted to rank Giovanny Gallegos higher on this list, but I just couldn’t figure out how. Gallegos has been one of the top relievers out of the St. Louis bullpen for two seasons now. There’s just a sense that he’s reached his ceiling. If Gallegos can keep producing at a high level as a late-inning reliever and sometimes closer, then he will be a very important piece of many Cardinal teams in the future. For now, he stays at 23, behind some players with bigger roles or more potential.

YOUNG GUYS RUNNING OUT OF TIME:

I almost called this the “lots of fans want to trade me” section. In all honesty, it’s the most important group on this list. These five are all 25 or 26 years old former top prospects, and each one is running out of chances to prove they belong as part of the core of the next great Cardinal teams. The Cardinals need at least one of them to prove this ranking wrong.

22- Andrew Knizner

We just wrote about the tough spot Andrew Knizner is in. I don’t envy being blocked by one of the greatest catchers of all-time or having a top catching prospect hot on your heels. That being said, 2021 looks like it will finally be the year when the Cardinals decide if Knizner fits into the long-term plans. My guess would be he finds a home as a solid if unspectacular starting catcher somewhere else.

21, 20, 19- Lane Thomas, Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader

These promising young outfielders have become a connected group of averageness collectively stuck in Randy Arozarena’s shadow. It’s very possible that Bader, O’Neill, and Thomas are destined to be fourth outfielders. On the other hand, I think 2021 is the perfect opportunity to give them some run and see once and for all what they can be. We know all of them play good defense– the key will be if one of these three can stay healthy and get on-base consistently. I still believe that someone in this group will put it all together.

18- Alex Reyes

Maybe I’m too much of an optimist, but watching Alex Reyes pitch last season was incredibly exciting. It’s easy to forget that he is only three years removed from Tommy John surgery, and has only pitched 72 innings in his short major league career. Alex Reyes as a weapon out of the bullpen is a quality baseball player, and the St. Louis Cardinals will be happy to have him healthy enough to fill that role. But if this former number two prospect in baseball can become part of the rotation, he immediately becomes an important piece of the future.

FLAMETHROWERS:

I absolutely love this group of four. They throw hard. They’re young. And they all look ready to contribute in 2021.

17- Ryan Helsley 

Helsley is last in this group because he has sort of become locked into this late-inning relief role. I still want to see what happens if he is a starter, but regardless of his role, he is the real deal on the mound. Definitely potential to move up on this list with a quality year three in the big leagues.

16- Genesis Cabrera

Genesis Cabrera has kind of been the left-handed, slightly less consistent version of Helsley. He’ll play a key role out of the bullpen in 2021, but I’d also love to see what he could do as part of the starting rotation. There aren’t too many left-handed pitchers who boast his stuff– I think Cabrera is an underrated candidate to breakout in 2021.

15- Johan Oviedo; 14- Angel Rondon

Johan Oviedo and Angel Rondon are very exciting young pitchers. They earned this high rank on the list because they have the talent to become top-end starters. Oviedo looked decent in his 24 innings pitched last season, and Rondon was protected this year from being selected in the Rule Five draft. Both of these guys might be ticketed for the bullpen in 2021, but in terms of future impact, the sky’s the limit.

THE KIDS:

Here we go– This is why Cardinal fans should feel good about the future. The Cardinals know how to develop talented young ballplayers, and these guys are going to deserve a real chance within the next two years.

12 & 13- Nolan Gorman (not on 40-man roster), Eleheuris Montero, 

Former first-round pick Nolan Gorman has legitimate power at the hot corner. Between him and 2018 Midwest League MVP Elehueris Montero, the Cardinals boast two hit-first prospects at a position where the big league club has a clear need. While finding a fit for both of them might be a little tough, having too much talent at a position is always a good problem to have.

11- Ivan Herrera

I covered Ivan Herrera back before he was placed on the 40-man roster in advance of the Rule Five Draft. Basically, he’s overtaken Andrew Knizer as the catcher of the future. He’s still a year or so away (which is why there is room to resign Yadi), but Herrera is the real deal.

9 & 10- Zack Thompson, Matthew Liberatore (neither on 40-man)

Liberatore and Thompson could be with the big-league club as soon as this season. Both young pitchers showed encouraging progress during the 2020 summer camps. There is real potential here for these two to become a 1-2 lefty punch in the rotation.

You might be wondering why these five are ranked so highly on this list. They’re above many established major leaguers, even though they have yet to debut in the MLB. I put these prospects up here because this is a list about potential. Is it likely that all five pan out and become regulars in the Cardinal lineup? Unfortunately, that answer is no. But if the Cardinals are to be a successful team in the 2020s, they need their top prospects to deliver.

VALUABLE PIECES:

These next five are what I call “the supporting cast.” They aren’t expected to win the MVP, but you need this group to perform consistently to support your stars. The best-case scenario is that one or two make the jump into the top group, but we’ll get into that in a minute. Also, I’d like to note how all of them are under contract for at least three more years, and, with one exception, the oldest is only 27 years old.

8-Miles Mikolas

I didn’t realize that Miles Mikolas is signed through the 2023 season. Since that practically guarantees he will be a member of the rotation for two seasons beyond 2021, I had no choice but to put him in this special group of the top eight. In an ideal world, Mikolas will provide stability and a veteran presence as the young guys sort themselves out the next two years. It’s unlikely that Mikolas moves any higher on this list, but if the Cardinals are successful, the young guys behind him will have jumped ahead.

7- Dakota Hudson

It’s a shame Dakota Hudson will be out for the entirety of the 2021 season. The only good news is that it gives the Cardinals a look at some of the other young pitchers. I wish Hudson a speedy recovery, and hopefully in 2022 he can resume his promising young career.

6- Tommy Edman

There is only one position not represented on the Cardinals’ top 30 prospect list, and that’s second base. Tommy Edman has gone from an unheralded sixth-round draft pick to the starter in a position without much backup. Still only 25 years old, Edman enters year three with a fantastic opportunity to prove his rookie season wasn’t a fluke. This spot could be his for the foreseeable future.

5- Paul DeJong

I have to remind myself that Paul DeJong is only 27 years old. The versatile shortstop is entering his fifth season in the big leagues. He struggled last year at the plate and in the field, but there has to be some confidence in the organization that the former All-Star can return to form. Between this season and next, a lot of veterans will be leaving St. Louis. Paul DeJong is going to be a very important leader.

4- Dylan Carlson

Dylan Carlson showed why he was such a highly-touted minor leaguer at the end of last season, and expectations are sky-high for the young switch-hitter going into 2021. Carlson has all the tools to become the anchor of the St. Louis Cardinals’ lineup. I hope he continues his development this next season so that by the time the Gormans and Liberatores of the system start arriving, Carlson will already have established himself as a building block. I said that we shouldn’t expect MVP seasons from this section of the roster, but Carlson might be an exception.

THE BUILDING BLOCKS:

Barring any big moves, this is the core of the St. Louis Cardinals. Every organization would find room on their roster for these three, and I’m counting on them to lead the ballclub. As the team moves past 2021 and the big contracts expire, the organization will be building around this group.

3- Jordan Hicks

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I included Jordan Hicks in this section because I think his return this season will be incredible. He has all the talent in the world, and from what I’ve seen of him, a great attitude off the field. Hicks will be the player I’m watching the most in 2021- if he is once again a dominant closer, it could be the start of a really impressive run as a Cardinal.

2- Paul Goldschmidt

Yes, Goldschmidt is 33, but he is a true superstar. I don’t think he gets the respect he deserves, and I hope we can contend with him on the roster before his time in St. Louis is up. He seems like the kind of ballplayer that even as he ages, he’ll find ways to produce. Cardinal fans should be thankful they have this guy locked up for the next few seasons.

1- Jack Flaherty

Who else was this going to be? Flaherty is the ace but also the most exciting player on the ballclub. I just hope the St. Louis Cardinals can work out a long-term extension. Yes, 2020 wasn’t a great year for Flaherty, but was it really a great year for anyone? If it was possible, I’d hand the ball to Jack every day of the week. You have to feel good about a team with Flaherty as the centerpiece as the Cardinals look to the future.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

Looking at the roster this way should reveal a lot about why the St. Louis Cardinals are being passive this offseason. There aren’t many players on here who have played full seasons in a starting role. There will never be room for this much young, unproven talent on one team– until each player has a chance to prove themselves, the Cardinals will be unable to move forward.

If it turns out in July that some of these guys are the real deal, then the front office can go out and use the depth to make a real move. A band-aid solution of signing one-tool players on one-year deals isn’t going to solve the real issues on this team. There is room for one or two veterans (Wainwright and Molina?) to help the transition to the next generation, but otherwise, it is time for some real evaluation.

Talent is coming up through the ranks. Large contracts are set to expire. 2021 might be a frustrating season, but by this time next year, when the free agent market is stacked and there is lots of payroll to spend, the Cardinals will know exactly what they need and how to go get it.