St. Louis Cardinals: Potential 2021 bounce back candidates

There are a lot of questions for the St. Louis Cardinals going into next season. Which current players could be in line for a bounce back in 2021?

The St. Louis Cardinals pride themselves on consistency via winning seasons and October baseball. Therefore with the COVID-affected 2020 season, the team did well to maintain this form amidst a number of challenges out of the organization’s control. With this in mind, there were certainly some standout issues with the roster which the Redbirds will need to look to resolve going into this spring.

The Cardinals finished 2020 with some continued major question marks around the offense, amassing the fewest doubles and fewest homeruns in all of the majors. This combined to a below average 93 wRC+ and a .694 OPS. This OPS was fifth-worst in all of MLB and the Cardinals second worst season, per OPS, in the last 20 years (better only than 2014).

Not only did the offense struggle in 2020, but the Cards’ normally stellar pitching and fielding combo was not quite as elite as it has been in prior seasons. The St. Louis Cardinals have finished in the top five for starting pitcher ERA over the last three years, but ranked as just the ninth best in 2020.

This minor blip in starter ERA will be driven jointly by a slight lull in pitching performance, but also by the defense behind them. Per Baseball Savants’ Outs Above Average metric, the Cardinals infield defense dropped from first overall in 2019 (with 29 OAA) down to 19th overall (with one run allowed) last season.

With all of the above and the financial constraints hitting not only the St. Louis Cardinals in 2021, but the majority of major sporting franchises who have gone a full season without fans, there will no doubt be a drive to look for rebound candidates from the current Cardinals roster!

Here are three key Redbirds who have the potential for a bounce back 2021 to maintain the franchises winning ways in the regular season and to push towards a longer postseason berth.

Paul DeJong

Paul DeJong was not his normal self in 2020, not only struggling at the plate but also being a lot more error-prone in the field. There is certainly room for improvement from the Redbirds shortstop in the coming season.

DeJong was one of the St. Louis Cardinals main offensive performers in 2019 with his 30 home runs being the second most on the team. Prior to 2020 he had never posted a below average wRC+, showing he has the offensive pop which the Redbirds desperately need! That offense just didn’t show up in the shortened season.

He ended 2020 with just an 84 OPS+ that ranked fourth worst of all qualified hitters on the Cardinals and had the lowest slugging % of his career by over 100 points. This was further backed up by DeJong’s career lowest barrel percentage (7.5%) which shows that although DeJong was still hitting for average, he was really struggling to make an impact with minimal extra bases.

Historically whenever DeJong has struggled with the bat, he has always excelled with his defense. DeJong finished 2019 with the 13th most Outs Above Average in the majors, ranking as the sixth best shortstop in all of MLB. That though didn’t translate last season.

In 2020, this strong defensive performance took a dive with DeJong finishing in the bottom four percent of all qualified fielders and with 36 qualified shortstops finishing above him! Looking into the Outs Above Average numbers, per Statcast, this was predominantly due to DeJong not being able to convert some of the easier plays. DeJong had 15 attempts at plays that were classed as having an estimated success rate of between 75 % – 90% (so some of the simpler plays) but managed to convert only ten of these. This was the key factor to his defensive drop-off.

Now this decrease in defensive efficiency and lack of power could well be due to the interruptions to game time, noting DeJong missed more games in 2020 than in the entirety of 2019. So there is certainly room for improvement with, hopefully, a full offseason and minimal missed time in the coming year!

Overall, DeJong finished 2020 with a career low WAR / G (0.5 fWAR through 45 games) and if he can rekindle his previous numbers then the St. Louis Cardinals could certainly do with a return to old Paul DeJong next season!

Matt Carpenter

Matt Carpenter again had a down year in 2020, so it now is at the stage with Carp to see if there is any possibility of a bounce back, or if this is who he now is!

Carpenter played in 50 of the St. Louis Cardinals 58 games in 2020, playing 60% of that time at third base and the majority of the remainder as the teams designated hitter. This is likely a sign of things to come, with Carp batting best as a DH and finishing with just a .633 OPS when playing third.

Overall, Carpenter posted an 84 wRC+ which ranked as the third worst on the team with at least 40 games played. His 0.3 fWAR was better than only Dylan Carlson and Dexter Fowler (who played 15 and 19 fewer games respectively). This shows there is a lot of scope for offensive improvements.

More from St Louis Cardinals News

• Cardinals Rumors: 3 pros and cons of signing Carlos Rodon
• Cardinals: Here is Willson Contreras’ first message for St. Louis fans
• How do the St. Louis Cardinals stack up with Willson Contreras?
• Cardinals: The insane asking price the Athletics had for Sean Murphy
• St. Louis Cardinals: Ask me anything with Josh Jacobs – 12/8

Carp had a career-low year for batting average (.186), which sat in the bottom quartile of all qualified hitters. He has been known for being a doubles king but that also tailed off in 2020. In his career, Carp has averaged a double every four games but in 2020 that increased to a double every eight games. Historically, Carp has had an extra-base hit every 2.5 games. This significantly dropped off to one extra-base hit every five games in 2020, really setting him back.

Finally, Carp struggled in the field. He posted negative one Outs Above Average when playing third base which was a big downward trend from his plus five OAA in 2019, that was top seven in the majors.

With the Cardinals making the decision to move on from second baseman Kolten Wong, there are certainly question marks for the infield and Carpenter could well be the starting third baseman to start the year if Tommy Edman takes over at second. Therefore Carp will need to improve his defensive stats back to what he has done previously to ensure the Redbird infield can re-gain their stronghold as one of the best defenses in MLB.

Carpenter has the history to show he can hit and make a significant impact to the Cardinals offense, but after two seasons of below average ball the question marks are mounting. Though if he can re-find old form, then the Cardinals have another locked in player to add to the starting lineup for 2021.

It is all lined up to be a very interesting winter when taking account the uncertainty around the National League designated hitter, whether we can have fans in the stadiums next year and overall payroll. If we could get some bounce back performances from some of the Redbirds’ core in 2021 that would be a major help to this team!