St. Louis Cardinals: Potential 2021 bounce back candidates

There are a lot of questions for the St. Louis Cardinals going into next season. Which current players could be in line for a bounce back in 2021?

The St. Louis Cardinals pride themselves on consistency via winning seasons and October baseball. Therefore with the COVID-affected 2020 season, the team did well to maintain this form amidst a number of challenges out of the organization’s control. With this in mind, there were certainly some standout issues with the roster which the Redbirds will need to look to resolve going into this spring.

The Cardinals finished 2020 with some continued major question marks around the offense, amassing the fewest doubles and fewest homeruns in all of the majors. This combined to a below average 93 wRC+ and a .694 OPS. This OPS was fifth-worst in all of MLB and the Cardinals second worst season, per OPS, in the last 20 years (better only than 2014).

Not only did the offense struggle in 2020, but the Cards’ normally stellar pitching and fielding combo was not quite as elite as it has been in prior seasons. The St. Louis Cardinals have finished in the top five for starting pitcher ERA over the last three years, but ranked as just the ninth best in 2020.

This minor blip in starter ERA will be driven jointly by a slight lull in pitching performance, but also by the defense behind them. Per Baseball Savants’ Outs Above Average metric, the Cardinals infield defense dropped from first overall in 2019 (with 29 OAA) down to 19th overall (with one run allowed) last season.

With all of the above and the financial constraints hitting not only the St. Louis Cardinals in 2021, but the majority of major sporting franchises who have gone a full season without fans, there will no doubt be a drive to look for rebound candidates from the current Cardinals roster!

Here are three key Redbirds who have the potential for a bounce back 2021 to maintain the franchises winning ways in the regular season and to push towards a longer postseason berth.

Jack Flaherty

Flaherty started off 2020 strongly with a 1.93 ERA through his first four starts, allowing just four earned runs and striking out seventeen through 18.2 inning pitched. With the bittiness of the 2020 season, Flaherty’s performances tailed off towards the end of the year and he ended the season third in the rotation behind veteran Adam Wainwright and Korean rookie Kwang Hyun Kim.

Flaherty finished with 0.6 fWAR which ranked him as the 86th best starting pitcher in the majors, a whole 2.6 fWAR behind the major league leader Shane Bieber (3.2). Flaherty finished 2020 with a 4.91 ERA which was particularly accentuated with a nine earned run, three inning outing against the Milwaukee Brewers in September. This all combined to a distinct drop off from 2019, after Flaherty closed out the 2019 season with a 0.93 ERA over his final ten games.

Flaherty finished in the top seven percent of the league in 2019 for both exit velocity and wOBA which were both key contributors to his rise to a top four finish in the CY Young and 13th in the MVP race. These numbers unfortunately didn’t quite hit the heights for JFlare in 2020, where he finished outside of the top third for exit velocity and didn’t even finish in the top 150 qualified pitchers for wOBA (behind the likes of Spencer Turnbull and German Marquez!

There thought was certainly sign of hope from Flaherty, who ended 2020 with a 3.42 xFIP which ranked in the top 25 of all starting pitchers with at least 40 IP. So potentially the drop off of 2020 may have just been down to a number of unfortunate events in both the current world climate, as well as on the baseball diamond. I would expect a bounce back from Flaherty, returning to his 2019 standards in the coming season.

Matt Carpenter

Matt Carpenter again had a down year in 2020, so it now is at the stage with Carp to see if there is any possibility of a bounce back, or if this is who he now is!

Carpenter played in 50 of the St. Louis Cardinals 58 games in 2020, playing 60% of that time at third base and the majority of the remainder as the teams designated hitter. This is likely a sign of things to come, with Carp batting best as a DH and finishing with just a .633 OPS when playing third.

Overall, Carpenter posted an 84 wRC+ which ranked as the third worst on the team with at least 40 games played. His 0.3 fWAR was better than only Dylan Carlson and Dexter Fowler (who played 15 and 19 fewer games respectively). This shows there is a lot of scope for offensive improvements.

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Carp had a career-low year for batting average (.186), which sat in the bottom quartile of all qualified hitters. He has been known for being a doubles king but that also tailed off in 2020. In his career, Carp has averaged a double every four games but in 2020 that increased to a double every eight games. Historically, Carp has had an extra-base hit every 2.5 games. This significantly dropped off to one extra-base hit every five games in 2020, really setting him back.

Finally, Carp struggled in the field. He posted negative one Outs Above Average when playing third base which was a big downward trend from his plus five OAA in 2019, that was top seven in the majors.

With the Cardinals making the decision to move on from second baseman Kolten Wong, there are certainly question marks for the infield and Carpenter could well be the starting third baseman to start the year if Tommy Edman takes over at second. Therefore Carp will need to improve his defensive stats back to what he has done previously to ensure the Redbird infield can re-gain their stronghold as one of the best defenses in MLB.

Carpenter has the history to show he can hit and make a significant impact to the Cardinals offense, but after two seasons of below average ball the question marks are mounting. Though if he can re-find old form, then the Cardinals have another locked in player to add to the starting lineup for 2021.

It is all lined up to be a very interesting winter when taking account the uncertainty around the National League designated hitter, whether we can have fans in the stadiums next year and overall payroll. If we could get some bounce back performances from some of the Redbirds’ core in 2021 that would be a major help to this team!