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St. Louis Cardinals Series Preview: Bader to return against the Buccos?
The St. Louis Cardinals already have one series win against the Pittsburgh Pirates under their belt. How will series two go?
A lot has changed since the St. Louis Cardinals last took on the Pittsburgh Pirates. In the opening series of 2020, the Cardinals came away 2-1 winners. Since then, the Redbirds endured a 17-day COVID-induced break and have returned strong, winning nine of 15 possible matchups.
After a walk-off win via a Kolten Wong walk versus the Royals in the ninth on Wednesday, the Redbirds return to their schedule of doubleheaders. We’ll have two games Thursday against the Pirates, with KK making his third career start in MLB in game one versus Chad Kuhl. Game two will see the return of Johan Oviedo to the starting rotation when he takes on Cody Ponce.
Over the history of the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates matchup, they have played a total of 250 doubleheaders (500 games). Presently, the Pirates are currently edging it, having won 247 of the games played. In recent history, the Cards have won 70% of the doubleheaders in the last 40 years!
The Cardinals have swept 64 of the 250 doubleheaders, last winning both games of a doubleheader back in August 2004 behind solid outings from Dan Haren and Chris Carpenter. Today will be a great opportunity to continue the streak of doubleheader wins over the Pirates.
After being no-hit by the White Sox, can the Redbird pitchers keep up the pressure on the Pirates?
Game one – 2:15 pm, Thursday (game one)
Kwang Hyun Kim makes his third start of 2020 in game one. In his initial outing, KK went three and two-thirds innings, allowing just a solo home run against the Cubs. He then was shutdown versus the Reds, going six innings and not allowing a single earned run while striking out three. This leaves him currently sitting with a 1.69 ERA which is best among any Cardinals pitchers with at least two starts made.
KK has allowed just one barreled ball in his 35 batted ball events so far in 2020, per Baseball Savant. This gives him a current ratio of 2.9 barrels per batted ball event, which currently sits him in the top 23 of all MLB pitchers with at least 35 batted ball events.
Chad Kuhl will be starting against the Redbirds in game one, who leads the Buccos in ERA (2.84). Kuhl does own a 5.00 FIP and has a 1.93 HR/9, so there is certainly room to work Kuhl and hit the long ball off of him.
Game two – Thursday (game two)
Johan Oviedo debuted in the second game of one of the doubleheaders against the Chicago Cubs last week. Oviedo looked good, striking out four in five innings pitched, allowing just two hits and two walks. This strong performance has him at a 0.80 WHIP and he is an exciting talent that can make a real impact on this Redbird rotation.
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Oviedo is expected to take on Cody Ponce, who, similar to Oviedo, only made his MLB debut this year. This second game of the doubleheader will be Ponce’s first-ever major league start, but in his two outings to date, he has allowed three hits including two home runs to the Twins in three and third innings.
In the battle of the rookie stars, Oviedo certainly has a more limited minor league career having only spent one year at AA or higher, whereas Ponce has had three full years. Ponce has been a career AA starter, and in his four starts at AAA he allowed four homers and a 5.40 ERA.
Can Bader & Miller stay hot, or can O’Neill re-heat?
Harrison Bader found his stride in the Reds and Royals series. After back-to-back homers against Cinci, he now sits as the Cardinals third hottest bat per wRC+ ranking 55% above the MLB average. Bader is riding a four-game hit streak in games that he’s started, having six extra-base hits over this streak. Bader did not start in the finale of the Royals series after suffering from a severe migraine, entering the game as a pinch-runner in the eighth. He is expected to rejoin the starting lineup on Thursday.
Paul Goldschmidt & Brad Miller both sit within the top five in the MLB in OBP (.487 and .477 respectively). Goldy’s 21.8% BB% ranks second-best in the NL behind only Will Smith of the Dodgers. Millers 53.6% Hard Hit % sits at 15th best of all qualified hitters in the National League.
Josh Bell has historically been a Cardinals killer, with a .342 career wOBA and 112 career wRC+. Bell has struggled mightily so far in 2020 though, with his 43 wRC+ ranking as second-worst on the Pirates and going hitless in his last three outings, dropping his season average to a lowly .198.
Colin Moran has been the Pirates’ best hitter so far in 2020, with six homers and four doubles. His 130 OPS+ leads the team, which was greatly helped by his three doubles game against the Brewers. In that series, Moran has six hits and a walk in 10 plate appearances to really spearhead the Pirates to the series sweep.
Next. The sweet spot is the key to Goldschmidt’s success. dark
With the Redbirds now sitting at 11-9 and only two games back of the Cubs, getting a sweep in this doubleheader could be big with the Cubbies not playing today. The pitching matchups look fun and I’m looking forward to seeing some Oviedo strikeouts and Bader staying hot (never thought I’d be saying that to close out an article)!