Breaking Down the Schedule: The St. Louis Cardinals’ Path to October

CINCINNATI, OH – JULY 23: Daniel Poncedeleon #62 of the St. Louis Cardinals gets a hug from Yadier Molina #4 after pitching the seventh inning against the Cincinnati Reds during a game at Great American Ball Park on July 23, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Poncedeleon came out of the game after pitching a no-hitter through seven innings but the Reds won 2-1. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

SUMMARY

Adding up the totals from my extremely non-scientific prediction method, here’s how the Cardinals would finish up against each opponent next season:

3-1 vs Tigers, 4-2 vs Royals, 2-1 vs Indians, 2-2 vs Twins, 1-2 vs White Sox

6-4 vs Pirates, 5-5 vs Cubs, 5-5 vs Brewers, 5-5 vs Reds

12-8 (.600) vs AL Central, 21-19 (.525) vs NL Central

OVERALL: 33-27

I think most people would be disappointed to split the season series against the Cubs, Brewers, and Reds. If the math holds up against the other teams, however, then it might not matter. From what this prediction shows us, the 60-game schedule favors consistent production more than anything else.

Compare this hypothetical performance to last year’s division-winning team. In 2019, the Cardinals went 46-30 (.600) against NL Central opponents. In interleague play with the AL West, the Cardinals were 9-11 (.450).

So, what will it take for the Cardinals to repeat in 2020? The AL West is significantly worse than the AL Central, so improvement in those games is likely. And while last year the Cardinals crushed their divisional rivals, I have the Cardinals barely going over .500 in those games, yet still reaching the projected win total for the division champion. It seems that a playoff berth is very possible for the Cardinals, even without a significant improvement from last year.

Of course, there is still a lot of baseball to be played. For all we know, some team ends up running the table and winning 40 games– crazier things have happened. As a Cardinal fan, I’m reassured by the fact that they don’t have to be perfect to make it to the playoffs. A fast start, weathering the storm through the middle, and a strong closing performance will be the keys to a successful season.

Predictions are always tough. In the end, I’d rather the Cardinals make the playoffs and have everything here be wrong. Really, we’re all just counting down the days till Jack Flaherty takes the mound on July 24th at Busch– it’s going to be an exciting sprint to the end.