Breaking Down the Schedule: The St. Louis Cardinals' Path to October

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Dexter Fowler #25 of the St Louis Cardinals – (Photo by Michael Zagaris/Oakland Athletics/Getty Images) /

Each section of the St. Louis Cardinals schedule this season offers something a little different. How will they need to perform in order to make it back to the postseason in 2020?

St. Louis Cardinals baseball is getting closer and closer. We’ve already covered the unusual nature of this season, but there is one big advantage of a short year that we have not yet discussed: the dangerous ability to make more detailed predictions.

With the regular season covering less than three months, it is not too far-fetched to look all the way to the end. Predicting each game is probably not worth our time. However, it might be interesting to break down the season into smaller pieces, in order to better understand a potential path to October.

For the Cardinals, there are three distinct sections in this year’s schedule. The first nineteen games end with the (proposed) Field of Dreams game against the White Sox in Iowa. The second twenty-two games are almost all on the road. Finally, the last nineteen games are split almost evenly between home and away.

Each of these 20-game stretches will have a big impact on the 2020 season. FanGraphs projects the NL Central winner to post a record of 32-28, and only one National League team to win over 34 games. Not a single NL team is projected to win more than 38 games or less than 24. If the Cardinals win at exactly the same pace as they did in 2019, they would hit that 32-win mark.

In other words, there won’t be much separation between a playoff team and the basement of a division. Winning close games and performing consistently might somehow be even more important this year. Beating the weaker teams on your schedule will be necessary to stay ahead of the pack.

How does this year compare to 2019? What will it take for the Cardinals to defend their division crown? Breaking down these three 20-game sections might just reveal the answer.

ST LOUIS, MO – AUGUST 09: Paul DeJong #12 of the St. Louis Cardinals scores a run against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the eighth inning at Busch Stadium on August 9, 2019 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

THE FIRST NINETEEN

A fast start is going to be crucial for success in 2020. Not only will it give the Cardinals more flexibility at the trade deadline, but the opponents on the early Cardinals schedule are not as strong as some of the later ones. Here’s what the beginning of the year has to offer:

HOME- six games vs Pittsburgh, two games vs Detroit, three games vs Cubs

AWAY- two games vs Minnesota, three games vs Milwaukee, two games vs Detroit

NEUTRAL SITE- one game vs White Sox

We don’t know how significant home-field advantage will be without fans, but anytime you have six games against the Pirates, it is a chance to capitalize. This is also the only time the Cardinals play against the very terrible Detroit Tigers, and the only home games the Cardinals have against the Chicago Cubs.

For a successful beginning to the year, I believe the Cardinals should aim to be 12-7. Four wins against Pittsburgh and three wins against Detroit can go along with a split with the Twins, a series win against the Cubs, and at least one road win in Milwaukee. I went ahead and gave the Cardinals the victory over the White Sox in Iowa as well– no real reason except that it would be pretty awesome.

I’ll summarize the season records against various teams at the end, but I don’t think this initial prediction is asking too much. Again, I can’t stress enough how important these first nineteen games will be. The contenders need to separate themselves early, and this schedule gives the Cardinals a great chance to start out hot.

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – AUGUST 13: Yadier Molina #4 of the St. Louis Cardinals bats during the 2nd inning of the game against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on August 13, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) /

THE MIDDLE TWENTY-TWO

This is by far the most difficult stretch on the Cardinals’ schedule. There is a lot of travel and tough matchups from mid-July to early August, and I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a slight stumble. Here’s a look at this section of games:

HOME- four games vs Cincinnati, three games vs Kansas City, three games vs Cleveland

AWAY- seven games vs Cubs, three games vs Cincinnati, two games vs White Sox

The first thing that stands out is a whopping SEVEN games at Wrigley. Also, of this group, only Kansas City is projected to be under .500 this season. The dangerous pitching staff of the Indians means that even with those three games coming at home, a series win will be a battle.

My evaluation of this stretch is that the Cardinals will go 10-12. It’ll be tough to win more than three out of the seven against each of the Cubs and the Reds, and asking the Cardinals to go 4-4 against the Royals, Indians, and White Sox will also be a challenge.

This is the time when many Cardinal fans might lose faith. However, if they have built up a lead in the first section, the Cardinals will still be over .500 and right in the thick of the playoff race. No team makes it through a season without a rough patch. The real test will be if the Cardinals can rebound over the last few weeks.

ST LOUIS, MO – SEPTEMBER 15: Lorenzo Cain #6 of the Milwaukee Brewers crashes into the wall after catching a fly ball against the St. Louis Cardinals in the seventh inning at Busch Stadium on September 15, 2019 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

THE LAST NINETEEN

At this point in the season, the Cardinals would be about 22-19. With the toughest section of their schedule behind them, the projections would require the Cardinals to win ten of their last nineteen games to take the division. Here’s what the final few weeks will look like:

HOME- two games vs Minnesota, three games vs Cincinnati, four games vs Milwaukee

AWAY- three games vs Milwaukee, four games vs Pittsburgh, three games vs Kansas City

SUMMARY

Adding up the totals from my extremely non-scientific prediction method, here’s how the Cardinals would finish up against each opponent next season:

3-1 vs Tigers, 4-2 vs Royals, 2-1 vs Indians, 2-2 vs Twins, 1-2 vs White Sox

6-4 vs Pirates, 5-5 vs Cubs, 5-5 vs Brewers, 5-5 vs Reds

12-8 (.600) vs AL Central, 21-19 (.525) vs NL Central

OVERALL: 33-27

I think most people would be disappointed to split the season series against the Cubs, Brewers, and Reds. If the math holds up against the other teams, however, then it might not matter. From what this prediction shows us, the 60-game schedule favors consistent production more than anything else.

Compare this hypothetical performance to last year’s division-winning team. In 2019, the Cardinals went 46-30 (.600) against NL Central opponents. In interleague play with the AL West, the Cardinals were 9-11 (.450).

So, what will it take for the Cardinals to repeat in 2020? The AL West is significantly worse than the AL Central, so improvement in those games is likely. And while last year the Cardinals crushed their divisional rivals, I have the Cardinals barely going over .500 in those games, yet still reaching the projected win total for the division champion. It seems that a playoff berth is very possible for the Cardinals, even without a significant improvement from last year.

Of course, there is still a lot of baseball to be played. For all we know, some team ends up running the table and winning 40 games– crazier things have happened. As a Cardinal fan, I’m reassured by the fact that they don’t have to be perfect to make it to the playoffs. A fast start, weathering the storm through the middle, and a strong closing performance will be the keys to a successful season.

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Predictions are always tough. In the end, I’d rather the Cardinals make the playoffs and have everything here be wrong. Really, we’re all just counting down the days till Jack Flaherty takes the mound on July 24th at Busch– it’s going to be an exciting sprint to the end.

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