St. Louis Cardinals: Five bold predictions for the 2020 season

No. 1: Lane Thomas will have more plate appearances than Dexter Fowler or Dylan Carlson this year

Dexter Fowler will probably have the shortest leash in terms of playing time of any player on the team. Over his last 147 at-bats (including regular season, playoffs, and spring training) he has just 21 hits (.143 AVG).

His speed is declining, down almost a .5 ft/s since joining the Cardinals. Calling his fielding average would be the compliment of the year, as evident by his -6 Outs Above Average in 2019. He was in the bottom 7% of the league in exit velocity last season at just 85.2 mph, his lowest since Statcast started in 2015 (yes, even lower than his horrific 2018 season). His strikeout percentage in 2019 was the highest of his career.

Sorry, I’ll stop ragging on him… I actually do like him. He’s a great person and he’s undergone far too much criticism since he came to St. Louis.

That being said, Lane Thomas can do everything Dexter can do, except more athletically. No, Lane may not post his elite BB%, but just about everything else would basically be an instant upgrade.

Everybody is frothing at the mouth to see Dylan Carlson, but everyone just has to accept the fact that he’s not going to make the major league team out of camp, and for good reason (see here.) Thomas will likely be the first man up if Fowler starts the season cold, and there’s a very decent chance he runs with it.

In his incredibly limited time last year (44 PA), he put up a 1.093 OPS. None of his minor league seasons even come close to replicating that, but he’s shown he can hang with big leaguers to some extent.

Even if he isn’t putting up monstrous offensive numbers, he still is a great defender and has speed on the bases. He can be an all-around asset.

No. 2: Nobody on the Cardinals team will accumulate more than 15 saves on the season

This season will be a true test of Mike Shildt’s managerial prowess. With Jordan Hicks on the shelf until August, at the earliest, or even for the entire season, the team doesn’t have a true “closer.”

In my mind, that is a good thing. One of the overwhelming opinions in baseball that may be going to the wayside is that every team needs to have their best “lockdown” reliever pitch in the ninth inning of games. The 2020 Cardinals need to do away with that and take the analytical approach.

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I think most people would agree that Giovanny Gallegos is the best reliever in the team’s bullpen this year, and for good reason – he was an absolute stud for most of last season. So why wait to use your best pitcher until the last inning? Games aren’t won or lost in the last inning, usually far before that.

The number of games Gallegos saved for the team last season in the 8th, 7th, 6th, or even 5th inning provided far more value than if he only pitched in the final inning. He came into tight games, with runners on, with a severe lack of outs and was able to prevent runs, thus allowing the closer to appear.

A closer-by-committee approach makes far more sense for the team. Throw whatever reliever fits the matchups best. Is that guy going to be Gallegos some games? Absolutely. Maybe they have three lefties due up? Throw Miller (maybe), Webb, or Kim in there to get the last outs.

Use your best arms when you need them most, regardless of inning. That means nobody will accumulate a huge save total like some fans are accustomed to in the past.

No. 3: Matt Carpenter will hit the 3rd most home runs of his career, knocking 25 out of the park

My colleagues here at Redbird Rants can testify, I’m about as strong of a Carpenter defender as there is in the fanbase today. Yes, it’s a real bummer that his 2019 season went so poorly, but it really wasn’t as bad as people remember it to be.

He’s just been such an elite (yes, I said elite), reliable player that any blip in the radar feels like the end of the world.

Carpenter spent all offseason getting into fantastic shape and reworking parts of his swing that needed to be fixed. Even the best fall down sometimes.

Overall, this might not seem like a bold prediction. The 3rd most home runs of his career? Ok, cool. What’s significant about that?

The broadcast team during Spring Training has made sure to point out the work Carp has done to his swing with a bigger focus on taking the ball the other way this season and shying away from his pull heavy approach of recent years. In other words, he’s not going to be swinging for the fences every at-bat, like he admitted he got into the habit of last year.

He’s going to get into a groove this year and start pounding the ball like he usually does. The numbers will pile up.

Matt Carpenter is going to have a bounce-back year and rediscover his long lost love with the leadoff spot in the lineup. Book it.

No. 4: Austin Gomber will be higher on the depth chart than both Adam Wainwright and Dakota Hudson by season’s end

I was going to say “start a playoff game before Wainwright and Hudson” but then thought better of it, I don’t want to curse anything.

That being said, this is the year Austin Gomber breaks out. He looked like a hidden gem in 2018 when he tossed 75 innings for the team in his rookie year. After dealing with injuries for all of last season, he never saw the big leagues. He came into Spring Training as almost an afterthought but has really opened some eyes.

Following the Mikolas injury diagnosis, the fifth spot in the rotation became an open competition. The spot looks like it’s going to come down to Daniel Ponce de Leon, Kwang-Hyun Kim, and Gomber. I think Ponce is going to win the spot out of camp, but just due to natural wear and tear, Gomber will be the next man up to take a few starts if needed.

His huge frame allows his curve to have some serious downward action and devastates hitters. As long as he can keep his walks in check, he should be able to see more success this season.

No. 5: Tyler O’Neill hits the longest Cardinal home run in Busch Stadium III history

Along with my defense of Carpenter, I also think I defend Tyler O’Neill more than the average fan. I advocated for letting Ozuna walk so O’Neill could get his shot at consistent playing time. He has so many physical tools, they’re hard to ignore.

And by that I mean he’s a physical freak. He was in the 99th (!!) percentile for sprint speed last season. Plus, he’s quite literally part bodybuilder.

If you’re thinking in terms of pure probability, this one probably has the best chance to happen of the predictions on here. He just has to connect on one swing all season and he could create the most majestic drive in the history of an entire ballpark.

The current record is held by Randal Grichuk in 2017 at 478 feet. That would be light work for the son of a bodybuilder. Just for the fun of it, I’ll say TON hits a ball 492 feet to left-center field this season, smashing the previous record.

I’m prepared for these to turn into freezing cold takes by season’s end. These are all just for fun, but I do believe they are real predictions. I’m just ready for real baseball to start.