St. Louis Cardinals: MLB player comparisons for top prospects

One of the fastest rising prospects in recent memory, Dylan Carlson has a well-rounded skill set that should prove valuable in the (very) near future.

Ceiling: Andrew McCutchen – PHI

This comparison may seem a bit ambitious, but hear me out. Think about the early Cutch, prior to his MVP years, when he was a rising star.

He was a supreme athlete that would get the nod as a “five-tool player.” In his first three years, from 2009-2011, he was an All-Star caliber player, but not what he would become. He had a .276/.365/.458 slash, while averaging 37 doubles and 20 HR per season (162 game average).

To show his pure athleticism, he also averaged 26 stolen bases per season as well, showing his well-rounded ability as a player. He had a rough start as a center fielder but ended up developing into a Gold Glove-caliber outfielder.

Both players have actually followed a fairly similar career path up to now. Early draft pick, tore up minor league pitching as a younger player, top-30 prospect heading into what looked like their final minor league season.

Carlson absolutely has the ability to get to this level of production. It’s impossible (and foolish) to project a player to be an MVP, but if Carlson produced like early-career McCutchen for his career, he would be an absolute success for the Cardinals.

Floor: Odubel Herrera – PHI

Carlson is unique in the way that his skillset feels safe enough that the possibility of a flameout seems relatively low.

Early in his career, Odubel Herrera looked like a very solid piece for a rebuilding Phillies team. He was an all-around skilled player that signed a team-friendly extension.

Things didn’t turn out as expected and he now seems like an outcast. His 2017-2018 seasons seem like a decent barometer for what Carlson would look like on the low end of his career. Herrera posted a .268/.318/.436 line while averaging 18 homers and just six stolen bases per season. He also regressed to a league average fielder in center field, after previously being a strong defender.

Carlson has been a very disciplined hitter in his career up until now, but there is no guaranteeing that will continue against better pitching as he moves up. I really see Carlson swinging closer to the ceiling, but even his floor in this situation remains a productive MLB player.

Nolan Gorman has as high of a ceiling as about any prospect in all of baseball, but his profile also leads to a very low floor.

Ceiling: Joey Gallo – TEX

When I first saw this comparison on twitter, I almost scoffed at the notion that he would be that extreme. But the more I look at it, Gallo would be a great outcome for Gorman

Gallo has become the poster boy for the launch angle resolution in baseball and Gorman has all of the same tools at the plate: light-tower power, mashes right-handed pitching, and A LOT of swing and miss.

As a hitting prospect, those who have a lot of swing and miss in their swing are the riskiest bets. Good pitching can effectively neutralize a player like this if they are incapable of getting the bat on the ball. So the risk is far greater than your average prospect as pitching gets better.

Gallo possesses the raw power of a superhuman, and Gorman isn’t far behind. He was a top pick in the 2018 draft due to that power and it was on display when he won a home run derby of the best high school players in the country.

Gallo has had the interesting career path of someone of his profile, posting 40+ homers twice already, while also threatening the Mendoza Line with his batting average. The only reason I don’t like this comparison is Gorman (I feel) has more bat on ball ability than Gallo, which would lead to a higher batting average.

In the field, they both have a cannon for an arm, but the range is very “meh.” Gallo is now primarily an outfielder but came up and debuted as a 3rd baseman. It’s still TBD whether Gorman can stay at 3rd base long term, but he still has the potential to be a plus fielder.

Floor: Jake Lamb – ARZ

Lamb absolutely tore through the minor leagues as a youngling, leading to a debut less than two years after getting drafted. Now, some people would be surprised to hear he’s even still on a Major League roster.

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Lamb’s defining factor is his ability to smack right-handed pitching as a left-handed hitter, but incredible inability to hit left-handed pitching. For his career, Lamb has an .814 OPS against right-handers, but a brutal .594 versus left-handers.

Gorman’s floor feels like a platoon corner infielder, exactly like Lamb is now. He hits for power when he’s in the right spot but can’t be counted on as an everyday player.

The young 3rd baseman has a very wide array of outcomes for his career, especially being as young as he is today. He will be watched as closely as any prospect in the organization this year, and for good reason.

The newest addition to the St. Louis Cardinals’ farm, Matthew Liberatore was one of the top lefties in the 2018 draft. He adds a much-needed pitching presence to the top prospect list.

Ceiling: Mike Minor – TEX

Minor has looked ace-like at times in his career, so this is not a slight towards Liberatore at all.

Tall, left-handed starting pitchers are always in high demand in Major League Baseball. Players who are able to throw a lot of high-quality innings are a very desirable asset.

With a wide arsenal of pitches, Liberatore probably isn’t going to strike out 300 batters in a season, but he will be able to use his pitches effectively to outsmart hitters. A good curveball and a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90’s are his go-to pitches with a developing slider and changeup, almost identical to what Minor throws.

Minor posted his best year back in 2013, where he had a 3.21 ERA with a 3.93 K/BB, but didn’t pitch in the majors in either 2015 or 2016 due to injuries. He’s bounced back very nicely in the last three years between the Royals and Rangers to post a 3.62 ERA with a 3.26 K/BB ratio.

Floor: Mike Montgomery – KCR

Mike Montgomery has been a good but unattractive piece in the majors for five years now.

He is good enough at everything but not elite at anything. In some ways, that has hurt him. He’s never gotten the opportunity to pitch a full season as a starter but has still made a positive impact on the club he’s playing for.

His peak came in 2016 when he was traded from the Mariners to the Cubs during the season. In 100 innings, he posted a 2.52 ERA with a 2.42 K/BB ratio. Since then he has posted a 4.01 ERA while averaging 115 innings per season.

Liberatore has a similar repertoire, and he had similar results. While he hasn’t struck out that many batters, he also hasn’t been great at limiting walks in his short (and admittedly young) career. Hopefully he can develop enough to try and get those stats moving in opposite directions in the coming season.

Numbers can be misleading, especially at the lower levels of the minors. Comparing young players to well-known names can be a very productive exercise when projecting a player, and maybe, tampering expectations.

These will be the three most anticipated prospects in the organization this season and I can’t wait to see how this season turns out for them.