St. Louis Cardinals: Which outfielder is most likely to be traded?

The St. Louis Cardinals have a glut of outfielders vying for spots in 2020 but there simply isn’t enough room for all. Which one is most likely to be trade bait?

The biggest issue with the St. Louis Cardinals in this decade, in my opinion, has been the tendency to hoard a bunch of complementary players at certain positions. If you have multiple superstar players that happen to play the same position, that can be worked around, but when the players are all complementary pieces, it creates almost an overchoice where picking the guy to stick with is hard to do.

This glut happened in the early part of the decade with young pitchers, when guys like Carlos Martinez, Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly, Luke Weaver, Jack Flaherty, Alex Reyes, Zac Gallen, and more were all in the system. The timeline with the first part of that list is a little off, but still, the team was overloaded with pitching prospects.

What eventually happens in these situations is the team finally gets smart to the abundance of depth they have and starts trading away players to help plug holes in other spots.

Right now, the Cardinals are facing that same glut with their outfield. The glut is helped some by the trade of Adolis Garcia to the Rangers, but the depth chart is still packed.

Now, without Garcia, the depth chart looks like this: Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader, Jose Martinez, Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas, Dylan Carlson, Randy Arozarena, Justin Williams, Tommy Edman (?). There are (at least) a couple of problems with this list. One, all of these players are either unknown and unproven young guys or complimentary major leaguers. Two, all of them (except Carlson) are old enough where sitting in AAA all year would rot their potential.

At the same time, not all of them can play at the MLB.

Carlson is untouchable and a lock to start at AAA (regardless of how bad I want him in left field on Opening Day), O’Neill, Thomas, and Arozarena have all put up big numbers at AAA and have the chance to be above average-to-great outfielders if given regular playing time. Fowler, Bader, Martinez are all paid many times what all the young guys make and are MLB regulars with their own warts.

Tommy Edman should not play outfield regularly. I know he filled in fine in right field in 2019, but he should play where his defense is best, which is the infield.

The point I am trying to make is that something needs to give. Garcia being moved is a start, but there’s no way the Cardinals can go into 2020 with eight MLB-caliber outfielders on the depth chart. One or multiple will need to be traded. Who’s most likely?

Tyler O’Neill

I have been a huge fan of Tyler O’Neill since the team traded for him in 2017. He was 22 at the time and is now going to turn 25 during the 2020 season. O’Neill is one of the most physically imposing players the Cardinals have had in a while and his power backs it up.

Four times O’Neill has hit more than 20 homers in a minor league season and in his two years in the MLB, O’Neill has hit 14 homers in just 293 at-bats. Double that for a usual season’s worth of at-bats and O’Neill could easily hit 30+ homers a year.

The problem with O’Neill has always been strikeouts. When he hits it, he can hit it far, but in his two seasons at the MLB, he has had a 35% and 40% strikeout rate, which is never going to fly. As a minor leaguer, his lowest strikeout rate was 23% and the average was in the high 20’s.

While he may strike out a ton, O’Neill has plenty of speed on the basepaths and can hold his own at any outfield spot.

In his only month of regular playing time, July of 2019, O’Neill batted for a .301/.341/.482 slash line with four homers. All I want to see is O’Neill getting a regular chance to show what he can do with the confidence of a manager, but I don’t think it will come.

The team has had plenty of chances to give O’Neill regular time and have passed. He doesn’t seem to be a part of their longterm plans and I could easily see him as the first man out.

Randy Arozarena

Randy Arozarena is another player that the team has treated just like Tyler O’Neill, but with much more evidence that he should’ve been playing. In all his years in the Minors, Tyler O’Neill never put up even close to the numbers that Randy Arozarena put up in his three months at AAA in 2019.

Through 283 at-bats, Arozarena hit .358/.435/.593 with 12 homers, nine steals, and 38 RBIs. He did this for three months while the major league team continued to run Harrison Bader out there every day with his .200 batting average. It was one of the most frustrating cases of inaction all year.

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Finally, Arozarena was called up in mid-August where he appeared in three games and sat on the bench for more before being sent back down. They didn’t give him any chance to see if he could even try and replicate his AAA numbers.

Arozarena was back for September though and even made the postseason roster. The 24-year-old had a .300/.391/.500 slash line in just 20 at-bats when he did get to play though and played a great outfield regardless of position.

Arozarena is another player that I just wish would be given a fair chance to prove what he can do. He did it at AAA and even if he put up numbers that were 75% as good as his AAA numbers, he would be a great left fielder. Sadly though, the team’s actions speak louder than anything, and they seemed to show that he isn’t part of their longterm plans.