St. Louis Cardinals: Which outfielder is most likely to be traded?

1 of 4

ST. LOUIS, MO – Aug 11: St. Louis Cardinals Outfield Lane Thomas (35) comes in to score after hitting a grand slam in the bottom of the seventh inning putting the Cardinals ahead 9-8 during a regular season game featuring the Pittsburgh Pirates at the St. Louis Cardinals on August 11, 2019 at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO. (Photo by Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

The St. Louis Cardinals have a glut of outfielders vying for spots in 2020 but there simply isn’t enough room for all. Which one is most likely to be trade bait?

The biggest issue with the St. Louis Cardinals in this decade, in my opinion, has been the tendency to hoard a bunch of complementary players at certain positions. If you have multiple superstar players that happen to play the same position, that can be worked around, but when the players are all complementary pieces, it creates almost an overchoice where picking the guy to stick with is hard to do.

This glut happened in the early part of the decade with young pitchers, when guys like Carlos Martinez, Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly, Luke Weaver, Jack Flaherty, Alex Reyes, Zac Gallen, and more were all in the system. The timeline with the first part of that list is a little off, but still, the team was overloaded with pitching prospects.

What eventually happens in these situations is the team finally gets smart to the abundance of depth they have and starts trading away players to help plug holes in other spots.

Right now, the Cardinals are facing that same glut with their outfield. The glut is helped some by the trade of Adolis Garcia to the Rangers, but the depth chart is still packed.

Related Story. Adolis Garcia, AAA four-tool HR/RBI machine, is gone. light

Now, without Garcia, the depth chart looks like this: Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader, Jose Martinez, Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas, Dylan Carlson, Randy Arozarena, Justin Williams, Tommy Edman (?). There are (at least) a couple of problems with this list. One, all of these players are either unknown and unproven young guys or complimentary major leaguers. Two, all of them (except Carlson) are old enough where sitting in AAA all year would rot their potential.

At the same time, not all of them can play at the MLB.

Carlson is untouchable and a lock to start at AAA (regardless of how bad I want him in left field on Opening Day), O’Neill, Thomas, and Arozarena have all put up big numbers at AAA and have the chance to be above average-to-great outfielders if given regular playing time. Fowler, Bader, Martinez are all paid many times what all the young guys make and are MLB regulars with their own warts.

Tommy Edman should not play outfield regularly. I know he filled in fine in right field in 2019, but he should play where his defense is best, which is the infield.

The point I am trying to make is that something needs to give. Garcia being moved is a start, but there’s no way the Cardinals can go into 2020 with eight MLB-caliber outfielders on the depth chart. One or multiple will need to be traded. Who’s most likely?

Tyler O’Neill

I have been a huge fan of Tyler O’Neill since the team traded for him in 2017. He was 22 at the time and is now going to turn 25 during the 2020 season. O’Neill is one of the most physically imposing players the Cardinals have had in a while and his power backs it up.

Four times O’Neill has hit more than 20 homers in a minor league season and in his two years in the MLB, O’Neill has hit 14 homers in just 293 at-bats. Double that for a usual season’s worth of at-bats and O’Neill could easily hit 30+ homers a year.

The problem with O’Neill has always been strikeouts. When he hits it, he can hit it far, but in his two seasons at the MLB, he has had a 35% and 40% strikeout rate, which is never going to fly. As a minor leaguer, his lowest strikeout rate was 23% and the average was in the high 20’s.

While he may strike out a ton, O’Neill has plenty of speed on the basepaths and can hold his own at any outfield spot.

In his only month of regular playing time, July of 2019, O’Neill batted for a .301/.341/.482 slash line with four homers. All I want to see is O’Neill getting a regular chance to show what he can do with the confidence of a manager, but I don’t think it will come.

The team has had plenty of chances to give O’Neill regular time and have passed. He doesn’t seem to be a part of their longterm plans and I could easily see him as the first man out.

Randy Arozarena

Randy Arozarena is another player that the team has treated just like Tyler O’Neill, but with much more evidence that he should’ve been playing. In all his years in the Minors, Tyler O’Neill never put up even close to the numbers that Randy Arozarena put up in his three months at AAA in 2019.

Through 283 at-bats, Arozarena hit .358/.435/.593 with 12 homers, nine steals, and 38 RBIs. He did this for three months while the major league team continued to run Harrison Bader out there every day with his .200 batting average. It was one of the most frustrating cases of inaction all year.

Wrapping up

Jose Martinez is a guy that always has fit better as a DH, but at this point, I really don’t believe his value is enough to entice the Cardinals into trading him. Dexter Fowler isn’t being moved with his contract. If the team was going to trade Bader, they would’ve when they had the chance last trade deadline. These three are a lock for an MLB roster spot.

Based off of what the team has said this offseason, Lane Thomas probably will have the first crack at regular playing time in left field, assuming the team doesn’t sign an outfielder or retain Marcell Ozuna.

Dylan Carlson is the best bet to take and hold a spot long term, but again, based off of what we have heard this offseason, Carlson will start at AAA. There aren’t enough spots for the three regulars, Lane Thomas, Tyler O’Neill, and Randy Arozarena. Those players also can’t just rot at AAA.

The Cardinals have these resources, now the question is whether they are going to hold onto them and let them spoil on the bench/AAA or are they going to turn them into something that can help the team in other ways. Neither Tyler O’Neill nor Arozarena has huge trade value, but Mozeliak can’t just let the assets spoil.

Next. Nick Plummer’s struggles continue in 2019. dark

There may not be any action left before the calendar turns decades, but there is plenty of time before games start. Even then, I would expect the Cardinals to trade maybe one more player off this list, then let the kids play in the spring to see who earns the spot.

Home / St Louis Cardinals News

The St. Louis Cardinals have a glut of outfielders vying for spots in 2020 but there simply isn’t enough room for all. Which one is most likely to be trade bait?

Tyler O’Neill

Randy Arozarena

Wrapping up

Schedule