St. Louis Cardinals: Winter Meetings primer and predictions

Don’t expect much in the free agent world

This week, I wrote about how the one year, $18M deal Cole Hamels signed with the Braves and then the five year, $118M deal Zack Wheeler signed with the Phillies has changed the free agent market for starting pitchers. The basic premise was that for a Cardinals team that is already self-hamstrung for cash, the skyrocketing price of free agent starting pitchers does not bode well for the team jumping in that pool.

When you add on the fact that the team doesn’t have a gaping hole in the rotation, it doesn’t make sense for the team to give the 30-year-old Madison Bumgarner $100M over five years when it then kicks out one of the other five high-paid starters the team already has.

While that is just the starting pitching market, I wouldn’t get your hopes up for the batter market either. While even fewer batters have gone off the market than pitchers, I would expect that the top tier batters out there (Anthony Rendon) are going to be way outside anything the Cardinals wish to pay.

After that top tier of free agents, the pool (especially in the outfield where the Cardinals have an open spot) drops off significantly. If the team doesn’t want to pursue a 29-year-old Marcell Ozuna, why would they go after someone like Nicholas Castellanos?

There may be something minor that happens, like a mid-inning reliever or a non-tendered bench bat, but don’t expect anything big from free agency.