St. Louis Cardinals: Rebooting the Cardinals top 10 prospects

With Alex Reyes and Dakota Hudson soon to lose their prospect status during the early part of the regular season, it’s time to reboot the St. Louis Cardinals’ 10 top prospects.

The St. Louis Cardinals top prospects in recent years have included the likes of Alex Reyes, Dakota Hudson, Carson Kelly, Jack Flaherty, Luke Weaver, and Tyler O’Neill, to name just a few. Now Flaherty is a regular in the Cardinal rotation and O’Neill appears settled on the 25 man roster. Additionally, Weaver and Kelly went west in the Paul Goldschmidt trade. Finally, Reyes and Hudson will lose their prospect status during the early part of the season.

With this recent clearing out of top prospects from the minor league system. it’s time to identify a new top 10 prospects listing for the St. Louis Cardinals. Although there is talent up and down the Cardinals minor league system, it seems the best talent is at the bottom of the organization.

By most farm system ratings, the Cardinals fall into the upper half, but not the top. Milb.com and Bleacher Report seems to reflect most of the ratings by currently ranking the Cardinal farm system at 12 out of 30 MLB organizations. Both of these rankings, however, reflect Alex Reyes and Dakota Hudson as prospects.

Joel Reuter of Bleacher Report calls the Cardinals 12 ranking a ‘bit of a mirage’ with Reyes and Hudson listed since both will lose their prospect status early in the season. Nevertheless, there are impressive prospects in the low levels of the minor league system and some are beginning to get noticed.

Looking at the St. Louis Cardinals’ minor league system, the strength seems to lie in the corner infield and outfield, but there are some interesting pitching prospects coming up. Also, note that  the talent in the upper levels of the minor league system is not exactly drained. There is talent in Memphis that will likely to be called up in 2019.

Without further delay, let’s dig into my Top 10 Prospects in the St. Louis Cardinals minor league system.

6. Dylan Carlson, OF

Carlson has been raising eyebrows during spring training with his versatility in the field by showing his defensive acumen in playing all three outfield positions. So far, he has stolen an extra-base hit from Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera and a lunging catch in right field to save runs for Adam Wainwright.

Dylan Carlson was taken by the Cardinals in the first round of the 2016 MLB draft. He has been steadily climbing in the Cardinals system and is expected to land in AA Springfield to start 2019.

Only 20, the switch-hitting Carlson has already shown power in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. In 2018, he hit 9 HR and 53 RBI in 99 games at Palm Beach. Although his batting average was not impressive (.247), the Cardinals were impressed that Carlson was able to cut his strikeout rate from 25.7% in 2017 to 17.7% in 2018. This earned him an invitation as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training, making him the youngest player in camp.

The Cardinals expect a breakout year for the 6’3″ 195 pound Carlson in the AA Texas League, which will more suit his power than the A Florida League. Even though the Cardinals organization if full of young talented outfielders, none have the versatility that Dylan Carlson offers.

5. Ryan Helsley, RHP

24-year-old Ryan Helsley was drafted by the Cardinals in the fifth round of the 2015 MLB Draft. The right-hander was then assigned to Johnson City and posted a 2.01 ERA in over 44 innings. Helsley has gradually progressed through the Cardinals minor league system and was promoted to AAA Memphis during the 2018 season.

However, after pitching in 26 innings and posting a 3.71 ERA,  his season was cut short in June due to shoulder fatigue. Nevertheless, he had an impressive 34 strikeouts while only walking nine batters while in Memphis. The Cardinals added Helsley to the 40-man roster after the 2018 season.

Helsley has a fastball that registers in the mid-90s with good movement and a curveball with a high spin rate 12-6 curve. Because of the concern with the shoulder fatigue, he may be destined for the bullpen. If Helsley can stay healthy, I expect a call-up in 2019 when the bullpen needs help.

4. Lane Thomas, OF

Yep, I know, another outfielder. But the 23-year-old right-handed Thomas has made the Cardinals stand up and take notice since he arrived from Toronto in 2017. I think Lane Thomas may be one of the most underrated prospects in the Cardinals minor system. So I’m correcting this by putting him in my Top Ten Prospects list.

In 2018, Thomas hit 27 HR, 88 RBI, and 17 stolen bases in 132 games between AA Springfield and AAA Memphis. The Cardinals were impressed enough to add to the 40-man roster after the season.

Thomas had not hit more than eight home runs in a year during his time in the Blue Jay organization. However, the Cardinals’ hitting gurus adjusted Thomas’ batting stance, getting him to stand more upright with less bend in his lower half. With this adjustment, his bat path shows more loft and thus resulting in more home runs.

Now if these same gurus can manage to get Thomas to reduce his strikeouts (134 K’s in 2018), his potential would be unlimited. In seven plate appearances in Spring Training, has hit .429, but had three strikeouts. Thomas has already been optioned to AAA Memphis and will wait for a likely call up during the season when opportunity allows.

3. Andrew Knizner, Catcher

With the departure of Carson Kelly to the deserts of Arizona, Andrew Knizner has become the new heir apparent to Yadier Molina‘s throne. The surprising rapid advancement of the right-handed Knizner from Low A to AA in 2017, made the departure of Kelly possible.

The 24-year-old was a seventh round pick in the 2016 MLB Draft and then assigned to the Rookie League Johnson City Cardinals, where he first started showing his power. But it in 2017, the Cardinals started taking notice of the right-handed bat when he hit a combined slash line of .302/.349/.471 with 12 HR and 51 RBI in 95 games.

The following year, he continued his ascent in the organization by hitting a combined slash line in AA/AAA of .313/.368/.430 with 7 HR and 45 RBI in 94 games. Knizner also shows remarkable plate discipline for a prospect with a  potential power bat by striking out only 48 time in 374 plate appearances. His 2018 performance earned him a spot representing the Cardinals in the 2018 All-Star Futures Game.

Even though Knizner is already showing a steady glove behind the plate, baring an injury to Molina, he will likely stay in AAA Memphis most of the year to fine tune his game. With Molina signed through 2020, Knizner should be ready to take over behind the plate in 2021.

2. Elehuris Montero, 3B

Montero has become one of the best hitters in the Cardinals system and should continue the trend in 2019. The 20-year-old Dominican hit a combine slash line of .315/.371/.504 with 16 HR and 82 RBI in 127 games between Low A and High A in 2018.

While at Low A ball in Peoria, he won the Midwest League MVP, the first Cardinal prospect to do so since…well, Albert Pujols.

Although he doesn’t have much speed, he can hit to all fields with power. Montero has a nice and easy swing that generates plenty of bat speed. Additionally, he shows patience at the plate and is willing take walks. In the Florida League, he showed the ability to hit line drives when needed, in parks that are usually pitcher friendly.

He is considered at this point in his career only an average fielder, but does have a strong-arm, which could keep him at third as he advances. Look for Montero to start the season at High A in Florida, but he will be in Springfield before the year ends.

1. Nolan Gorman, 3B

Nolan Gorman is beginning to get attention, not only from Cardinals fans, but across baseball as one of the top prospects in the game. In fact, Jim Callis of MLB.com has identified Gorman, as one of the five top prospects in baseball, even comparing him to a left-handed Kris Bryant.

This is pretty heady stuff for a guy who has not yet turned 19. But the Cardinals seemed to have seen this when they picked 19th overall in the 2018 MLB Draft. He made an immediate impact in the Rookie Appalachian League, where he hit a slash line of .350/.443/.664 with 11 HR and 28 RBI in 38 games.

However, when he was promoted to Low A in Peoria, he cooled off and came down to earth.  In 25 games he hit a slash line of .202/.280/.426 with 6 HR and 16 RBI. Strikeouts, caused by lack of plate discipline and struggles against left-handed pitching, was the boogie man for Gorman in Peoria.

However, the young left-handed bat has a strong, quick snapping wrists that help generate easy bat speed. Gorman showed a bit of that talent when he was inserted on March 16th in a spring training game vs the Nationals. when he hit a home run off Kyle Barraclough.

Nolan Gorman isn’t expected to arrive in St. Louis until 2022 and will likely start the year in Peoria. Nevertheless, the Cardinals are banking on this young 6′ 1″ 210 lb prospect to rise and eventually be an answer for them at either corner infield position.

Putting together a prospects top 10 list is a subjective process. My 10 may not completely reflect another’s top 10 list. However, there are certain prospects that would make most top 10 lists, Alex Reyes, for example, was on everyone’s top ten prospect list for the St. Louis Cardinals in the last few years.

There were a few prospects who I didn’t put on my list that made other top 10 lists. Griffin Roberts is a highly regarded right handed pitching prospect who was drafted 43 overall in the 2018 MLB Draft. However, Roberts was tagged with a 50 game suspension for testing positive for drug use after making only eight appearances in the minors. I didn’t feel like we saw enough of a sample to put him in the top 10.

Justin Williams is a corner outfield prospect that came to the Cardinals from Tampa Bay in the Tommy Pham trade. Williams excelled in the Rays AA affiliate in 2017, but struggled at AAA Memphis once the Cardinals acquired him. The 23-year-old left-handed bat, has some power, but needs to reduce his strikeouts. Maybe in time, after the Cardinal hitting gurus spend time with him, his bat will find itself.

Luken Baker is another prospect I find intriguing, but I didn’t feel he was a top 10 prospect…yet. Some disagree, because they see Baker’s size (6’4″,250lbs), strength, and thus power potential. The first base prospect was drafted 75th overall in the 2018 MLB draft and had an impressive season at Low A and High A ball. However, Baker has a long road ahead him with the likes of Nunez, Montero, and Gorman ahead of him.

The St. Louis Cardinals are well loaded in the corner infield position and the outfield across their minor league system. Some will see St. Louis, others may be used as trade bait to address other needs.

Finally, as any prospect listing, my Top Ten Prospects list is fluid and could change as the season progresses. Some may move off the list and others could be added. This list is just my opinion as it stands before the start of the 2019 season