St. Louis Cardinals: A 2019 starting pitching preview

It’s almost time for the 2019 Spring Training to begin every pitcher who could possibly receive a start that is currently on the St. Louis Cardinals 40-man roster.

It’s finally February! That means all the St, Louis Cardinals‘ pitchers and catchers report in a week or two and baseball begins for real in 2019. Final rosters are beginning to take shape and year-long projections are being made.

While we are doing our own individual player projections separately, here we will look at a more holistic view of just the starting rotation. The Cardinals have right around 10 different pitchers who all have major league experience who could potentially start for the team in 2019. With so many options, Mike Shildt will have a difficult job should any of the first five men up struggle to perform or get hurt.

This process begins with rotation stalwarts like Carlos Martinez and Adam Wainwright and ends with kids whose names are almost unknown, like Ryan Helsley. From young to old, rookie to veteran, these pitchers will all get a chance to make a difference for the big league club in some form or fashion this year. With all that said, let’s dig in.

Carlos Martinez

If Carlos Martinez takes the next step in his development, he’s an absolute ace for the St. Louis Cardinals. He’s Pedro Martinez reincarnated. He has an electric fastball that touches the high 90s with movement and an effective slider/changeup combo. If Carlos can harness his raw stuff, he is an elite starter. For 2019, expect more of the same: inconstant brilliance with the hope of something better.

Miles Mikolas

Many people suddenly consider Miles Mikolas the ace of this staff after one season. I’m not sold yet. I think Mikolas will pitch well, but with a slight regression of last year’s performance. He has innings-eater stuff and makeup, and that is the role he should fit in. He is a quality pitcher who has consistent outings. He gives you a chance to win every time he takes the mound. He profiles as the #2 pitcher on the staff.

Jack Flaherty

Jack Flaherty burst onto the scene last year to the tune of a 3.34 ERA in 28 starts. He brought some rookie swagger onto the team and helped stabilize an injury plagued rotation. With a low 90s fastball and an amazing breaking ball, along with plus makeup and control, Flaherty’s ceiling is that of an ace.

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Flaherty’s only real negative in 2018 was his walk problems and inability to go deep into games. Both of those should smooth out as he continues to develop (hopefully) into a franchise icon. There is always the possibility of a sophomore slump, however. Flaherty could either continue what he did last year, or resemble Luke Weaver at the beginning of 2018.

Michael Wacha

This is potentially the last year Michael Wacha pitches in a St. Louis Cardinals uniform. With the depth behind him, there is a large likelihood that this happens. However, Wacha has a lot to prove before he hits free agency. He has not had an effective, healthy season in a couple of years.

In 2018, Wacha was pitching quite well before an oblique injury set him out for the year. Wacha throws a mid to high 90s fastball and a devious changeup, along with an effective curveball. When he’s right, he’s fun to watch. 2019 being a walk year, expect Wacha to do amazing things.

Adam Wainwright

Adam Wainwright is, sadly, at the end of his career. He was my personal hero growing up, the pitcher I tried to model myself after. I would love nothing more than to see him go have a vintage Wainwright year, throwing 200 innings with a 2.20 ERA, buckling knees with his curveball. But I don’t think it will happen. Instead, I think he will have a couple of good starts interrupted by stints on the disabled list. I honestly hope I’m wrong and Waino has a wonderful 2019.

Ryan Helsley

Ryan Helsley features a repertoire that is almost becoming common for young pitchers. With a sizzling fastball and solid secondary pitch, Helsley has a lot of potential for the St. Louis Cardinals. Helsley really impressed at AAA last year. He was over a strikeout per inning (11.5/9IP to be exact) with a 1.01 WHIP and a 3.71 ERA.

The ERA is kinda irrelevant compared to the other numbers, for a couple of reasons. For one, the Pacific Coast League (home to the Memphis Redbirds) is notoriously hard on pitchers. For another, minimizing baserunners to go with high strikeouts is a very good formula for success. The ERA will come with time. Helsley profiles as a 2/3 starter at his peak and will see Major League playing time this season. Whether that means more starts or bullpen time remains to be seen.

Dakota Hudson

I think the Cardinals will take a similar approach with Dakota Hudson as they did Carlos Martinez when he first came up. He spent a year or two exclusively working out of the bullpen to refine his stuff and to get a feel for Major League hitters. Hudson excelled out of the bullpen last year, earning himself high leverage innings down the stretch.

Hudson is a sinkerball pitcher who minimizes hard contact. In the future he might be a right-handed Dallas Keuchel, pitching at the front end of the rotation. Hudson has a bright future ahead of him.

Alex Reyes

Most likely to be used out of the bullpen all year, Alex Reyes still boasts an electric fastball and a knee buckling curve ball. If he can stay healthy, this will be a season to remember for the young fireballer. People seem to have forgotten the magic and charisma he had in his 2016 late season cameo where he was nothing but dominant. Reyes could be an elite starter if he stays healthy. As for 2019, his starts will be numbered.

In short, the starting pitching staff will not be a weakness on the 2019 St. Louis Cardinals. The only thing I wouldn’t mind seeing is the addition of a bona fide ace such as Corey Kluber. However, this is one of the few times I won’t mind seeing Mozeliak and Co sitting pat. They have done well to accumulate both the quality and quantity of pitching depth that they have.

It is slightly sad to imagine that this might be the last year for Michael Wacha on the Cardinals, but he had a good career with the St. Louis Cardinals. I would expect that as much as the Cardinals enjoy having Wacha here, there are just too many young players where extending Wacha just doesn’t make sense.

I personally thought it was a mistake to let Lance Lynn walk in Free Agency last year, but the Cardinals proved me wrong. They made a great signing in Miles Mikolas (hopefully even extending his contract soon) and found a diamond in the rough with Jack Flaherty.

The farm system has done a wonderful job of churning out brilliant young pitchers and will hopefully continue to do so. Quality pitching has been a staple of Cardinals baseball for many many years and the tradition will be continued in 2019.